Skip to main content
Top

2011 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

11. Global Food Commodity Price Volatility and Developing Country Import Risks

Author : Alexander Sarris

Published in: Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility

Publisher: Springer New York

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

The world food price spike of 2007–2008 raised to the fore the issues of how countries can manage their basic staple food imports in times of crises. There are many risks to food imports, ranging from price risks to risks of non-performance and hence threats to domestic food supplies. The chapter first provides a review of the risks and food import access problems faced by various low and middle income net food staple importing countries and reviews pertinent policies to deal with them. A short review of some institutional issues in food importing is given to introduce more detailed discussion of food import risk management. Then a proposal for a food import financing facility designed to alleviate the financing constraint of many developing food-importing countries is presented.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Footnotes
1
LIFDCs are a FAO classification. The latest list of May 2009 includes 77 countries. The list of LDCs is one used by the United Nations (UN) and as of May 2009 includes 50 countries. All but 4 LDCs are also included in the LIFDC list. The list of NFIDCs is a World Trade Organization (WTO) group, which as of May 2009 includes all 50 LDCs and another 25 higher income developing countries, for a total of 75 countries. Of the 25 extra countries in this list only 8 are in the FAO list of LIFDCs, the others being higher income countries. The Low Income Countries (LICs) is a World Bank classification of 53 countries that overlaps significantly with the UN list of LDCs.
 
2
This section draws on an unpublished note (FAO and UNCTAD, 2005) co-authored by the author of this chapter.
 
3
This is a mechanism used for example in the United States to enable domestic banks to provide more rural loans and mortgage loans to smaller clients, with public institutions such as FannieMae providing a refinancing facility to these banks.
 
4
Alternatively, if the guarantees that it receives are good enough, the FIFF could be allowed to become self-financing in a manner similar to the World Bank, that is to say, it would be able to borrow cheaply against the guarantees even when LDCs and NFDICs do not require the support, and place the funds in higher-earning assets.
 
5
The full details of the methodology as well as more empirical results can be found in Sarris (2009b).
 
Literature
go back to reference Bruinsma J. (Ed.). (2003). World agriculture towards 2015/30. An FAO perspective. London: Earthscan. Bruinsma J. (Ed.). (2003). World agriculture towards 2015/30. An FAO perspective. London: Earthscan.
go back to reference Clements M.P., Hendry D. (1998). Forecasting economic time series. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef Clements M.P., Hendry D. (1998). Forecasting economic time series. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef
go back to reference Deaton A. (1991). Savings and liquidity constraints. Econometrica, 59(5): 1221–48.CrossRef Deaton A. (1991). Savings and liquidity constraints. Econometrica, 59(5): 1221–48.CrossRef
go back to reference Deaton A. (1999). Commodity prices and growth in Africa. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 13(3): 23–40.CrossRef Deaton A. (1999). Commodity prices and growth in Africa. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 13(3): 23–40.CrossRef
go back to reference Debatisse M.L., Tsakok I., Umali D., Claessens S., Somel K. (1993). Risk Management in liberalising economies: issues of access to food and agricultural futures and options markets. World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Regional Office, Middle East and North Africa Regional Office, Technical Department Report No. 12220 ECA, November 30. Debatisse M.L., Tsakok I., Umali D., Claessens S., Somel K. (1993). Risk Management in liberalising economies: issues of access to food and agricultural futures and options markets. World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Regional Office, Middle East and North Africa Regional Office, Technical Department Report No. 12220 ECA, November 30.
go back to reference Dehn J. (2000). The effects on growth of commodity price uncertainty and shocks. Washington DC, World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper No. 2455. Dehn J. (2000). The effects on growth of commodity price uncertainty and shocks. Washington DC, World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper No. 2455.
go back to reference Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2004). The state of agricultural commodity markets. Rome: FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2004). The state of agricultural commodity markets. Rome: FAO.
go back to reference Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2003). Financing normal levels of commercial imports of basic foodstuffs in the context of the Marrakesh decision on least-developed (LDC) and net food importing developing countries (NFIDC). Rome: FAO, Commodities and Trade Division. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2003). Financing normal levels of commercial imports of basic foodstuffs in the context of the Marrakesh decision on least-developed (LDC) and net food importing developing countries (NFIDC). Rome: FAO, Commodities and Trade Division.
go back to reference Food and Agriculture Organization United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (FAO and UNCTAD) (2005). Implementing the Marrakesh decision. A proposal to create a dedicated food import financing facility. Unpublished note. Rome: FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (FAO and UNCTAD) (2005). Implementing the Marrakesh decision. A proposal to create a dedicated food import financing facility. Unpublished note. Rome: FAO.
go back to reference Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (2009). The state of agricultural commodity markets. Rome: FAO. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (2009). The state of agricultural commodity markets. Rome: FAO.
go back to reference Gilbert C.L. (1996). International commodity agreements: an obituary notice. World Development, 24(1): 1–19.CrossRef Gilbert C.L. (1996). International commodity agreements: an obituary notice. World Development, 24(1): 1–19.CrossRef
go back to reference Harwood J., Heifner R., Coble K., Perry J., Somwaru A. (1999). Managing risk in farming: concepts, research and analysis. US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Agricultural Economics Report No. 774. Harwood J., Heifner R., Coble K., Perry J., Somwaru A. (1999). Managing risk in farming: concepts, research and analysis. US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Agricultural Economics Report No. 774.
go back to reference Ivanic M., Martin W. (2008). Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries. Agricultural Economics, 39(supplement): 405–416.CrossRef Ivanic M., Martin W. (2008). Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries. Agricultural Economics, 39(supplement): 405–416.CrossRef
go back to reference Johnson D.G. (1947). Forward prices in agriculture. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. Johnson D.G. (1947). Forward prices in agriculture. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
go back to reference Keynes J.M. (1942). The international control of raw materials. UK Treasury Memorandum, reprinted in Journal of International Economics, 4, 299–315. Keynes J.M. (1942). The international control of raw materials. UK Treasury Memorandum, reprinted in Journal of International Economics, 4, 299–315.
go back to reference Konandreas P., Huddleston B., Ramangkura V. (1978). Food security: an insurance approach. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, Research Report No. 4. Konandreas P., Huddleston B., Ramangkura V. (1978). Food security: an insurance approach. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, Research Report No. 4.
go back to reference Lapan H., Moschini G., Hanson S.D. (1991). Production, hedging, and speculative decisions with options and futures markets. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 73(1): 66–74.CrossRef Lapan H., Moschini G., Hanson S.D. (1991). Production, hedging, and speculative decisions with options and futures markets. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 73(1): 66–74.CrossRef
go back to reference Ng F., Aksoy A. (2008). Food price increases and net food importing countries: lessons from the recent past. Agricultural Economics, 39(supplement): 443–452.CrossRef Ng F., Aksoy A. (2008). Food price increases and net food importing countries: lessons from the recent past. Agricultural Economics, 39(supplement): 443–452.CrossRef
go back to reference OECD-FAO (2010). Agricultural Outlook. Paris and Rome: OECD-FAO. OECD-FAO (2010). Agricultural Outlook. Paris and Rome: OECD-FAO.
go back to reference Rapsomanikis G. (2009). The 2007–2008 food price swing: impact and policies in Eastern and Southern Africa. FAO Commodities and Trade Technical paper No 12, Trade and Markets Division. Rome: FAO. Rapsomanikis G. (2009). The 2007–2008 food price swing: impact and policies in Eastern and Southern Africa. FAO Commodities and Trade Technical paper No 12, Trade and Markets Division. Rome: FAO.
go back to reference Samuelson P.A. (1957). Intertemporal price equilibrium: a prologue to the theory of speculation, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 79: 181–219; reprinted in P.A. Samuelson, Collected Scientific Papers (J.E. Stiglitz, Ed.) Samuelson P.A. (1957). Intertemporal price equilibrium: a prologue to the theory of speculation, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 79: 181–219; reprinted in P.A. Samuelson, Collected Scientific Papers (J.E. Stiglitz, Ed.)
go back to reference Sarris A. (1985). Food security and agricultural production strategies under risk in Egypt. Journal of Development Economics, 19(1/2): 85–111.CrossRef Sarris A. (1985). Food security and agricultural production strategies under risk in Egypt. Journal of Development Economics, 19(1/2): 85–111.CrossRef
go back to reference Sarris A. (1997). Price variability in cereal markets and risk management strategies for market participants. Discussion paper, AGR/CA/APM/CFS(97)8. Paris: OECD. Sarris A. (1997). Price variability in cereal markets and risk management strategies for market participants. Discussion paper, AGR/CA/APM/CFS(97)8. Paris: OECD.
go back to reference Sarris A. (2009a). Factors affecting recent and future price volatiliy of food commodities. Schriften der Gessellschaft fur Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues, e.V., Bd. 44: 29–48. Sarris A. (2009a). Factors affecting recent and future price volatiliy of food commodities. Schriften der Gessellschaft fur Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues, e.V., Bd. 44: 29–48.
go back to reference Sarris A. (2009b). Hedging cereal import price risks and institutions to assure import supplies. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No 30, Trade and Markets Division, December. Sarris A. (2009b). Hedging cereal import price risks and institutions to assure import supplies. FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No 30, Trade and Markets Division, December.
go back to reference Sarris A. (2010). Evolving structure of world agricultural market instability and requirements for new world trade rules. In A. Sarris, J. Morrison (Eds.). The evolving structure of world agricultural trade: implications for trade policy and trade agreements. Rome: FAO, 11–38. Sarris A. (2010). Evolving structure of world agricultural market instability and requirements for new world trade rules. In A. Sarris, J. Morrison (Eds.). The evolving structure of world agricultural trade: implications for trade policy and trade agreements. Rome: FAO, 11–38.
go back to reference Sarris A., Conforti P., Prakash A. (2011). The use of organized commodity markets to manage food import price instability and risk. Agricultural Economics, 42(1), 47–66. Sarris A., Conforti P., Prakash A. (2011). The use of organized commodity markets to manage food import price instability and risk. Agricultural Economics, 42(1), 47–66.
go back to reference Varangis P., Larson D., Anderson J.R. (2002). Agricultural markets and risks: management of the latter not the former. World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 2793. Varangis P., Larson D., Anderson J.R. (2002). Agricultural markets and risks: management of the latter not the former. World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 2793.
Metadata
Title
Global Food Commodity Price Volatility and Developing Country Import Risks
Author
Alexander Sarris
Copyright Year
2011
Publisher
Springer New York
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-7634-5_11