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New Aggregation Methods for Decision-Making in the Selection of Business Opportunities Read chapter Read first chapter

2015 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

Goodness of Aggregation Operators in a Diagnostic Fuzzy Model of Business Failure

Authors : Valeria Scherger, Hernán P. Vigier, Antonio Terceño-Gómez, M. Glòria Barberà-Mariné

Published in: Scientific Methods for the Treatment of Uncertainty in Social Sciences

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

The aim of the following paper is proposed a mechanism of analysis useful to verify the capacity of the Vigier and Terceño (2008) diagnostic fuzzy model to predict diseases. The model is enriched by the inclusion of aggregation operators because this allows reducing the detected map of causes or diseases in strategic areas of continuous monitoring. And at the same time this causes can be disaggregated once some alert indicator is identified. The capacity of explanation and prediction of estimated diseases are measured through this mechanism; and also are detected the monitoring key areas that warning insolvency situations. In this approach are introduced aggregation operators of causes of business failure, and a goodness measure using approximate solutions. This index of goodness allows testing the degree of fit of the predictions of the model. Also, as an example, the empirical estimation and the verification of the improvement proposal to a set of small and medium- sized enterprises (SMEs) of the construction sector are presented.

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previous chapter Advanced Spectral Methods and Their Potential in Forecasting Fuzzy-Valued and Multivariate Financial Time Series
next chapter Forecasting Global Growth in an Uncertain Environment
Appendix
Available only for authorised users
Footnotes
1
This model is chosen because it has a comprehensive analysis of causes and symptoms over the pioneers models of Aluja Gil (1990) and Gil Lafuente (1996), and the recent proposals of Mărăcine and Delcea (2009), Scarlat et al. (2010), among others. These recents approaches taken as reference Vigier and Terceño model, derive the matrix of causes and symptoms by difference with the performance matrix, and therefore introduce a greater degree of subjectivity and a turn on in favor of experts point of views.
 
2
Revisions by Zmijewski (1984); Jones (1987); Balcaen and Ooghe (2006); Tascón and Castaño (2012), etc., can be consulted. They comment the main methodological problems of the traditional models and the new applied techniques.
 
3
According to Vigier y Terceño (2012), this methodology is consistent with Sánchez (1982) contributions regarding the general conditions imposed on the solution of fuzzy binary equations.
 
4
If only the firms constituted in formal societies are considered, as they are the only ones required to submit economic- financial statements, the percentage of representation is around 30 %.
 
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Metadata
Title
Goodness of Aggregation Operators in a Diagnostic Fuzzy Model of Business Failure
Authors
Valeria Scherger
Hernán P. Vigier
Antonio Terceño-Gómez
M. Glòria Barberà-Mariné
Copyright Year
2015
Book
Scientific Methods for the Treatment of Uncertainty in Social Sciences

Print ISBN: 978-3-319-19703-6

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-19704-3

Copyright Year: 2015

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19704-3_12

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