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About this book

Over the past two decades, the issue of equilibrium indeterminacy has been one of the major research concerns in macroeconomic dynamics. Growth and Business Cycles with Equilibrium Indeterminacy discusses the main topics in this literature. Based on comprehensive surveys and the author’s original research, this book explores sunspot-driven fluctuations in real business cycle models, multiple equilibria in endogenous growth models, and the stabilization effects of fiscal and monetary policy rules. The book also considers equilibrium indeterminacy in open economy models.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. Introduction

Abstract
This chapter reviews the issue of equilibrium indeterminacy in macroeconomics. Instead of providing a broad literature survey, we consider two simple examples. One is a univariable rational expectations model of asset price determination. The other is a general equilibrium model of monetary economy. When discussing both examples, we classify the models into three categories: the steady state of the model economy is (i) unique, (ii) multiple, and (iii) a continuum. The majority of foregoing studies have treated models with a unique steady state. However, there are some interesting situations in which multiple steady state equilibria exist or the steady state of the economy constitutes a continuum.
Kazuo Mino

Chapter 2. Indeterminacy in Real Business Cycle Models

Abstract
The baseline real business cycle (RBC) model is a stochastic optimal growth model with flexible labor supply. The typical driving force of business fluctuations is a technological shock hitting the total factor productivity (TFP) of the aggregate economy in each period. In RBC models with equilibrium determinacy, the economy never fluctuates in response to non-fundamental shocks that only affect expatiations of households and firms. As discussed in the previous chapter, the necessary condition for the existence of sunspot-driven business cycles is that the equilibrium path of the economy is indeterminate.
Kazuo Mino

Chapter 3. Indeterminacy in Endogenous Growth Models

Abstract
This chapter examines endogenous growth models in which equilibrium intermediacy may emerge. It is known that some endogenous growth models assume that there is no market distortion and that every production factor is reproducible under constant returns to scale technologies. In this class of models, the perfect-foresight competitive equilibrium coincides with the optimal growth path of a social planning problem, so that equilibrium indeterminacy will not arise in those models. However, the majority of endogenous growth models assume the presence of technological spillover and external effects to sustain continuing growth in the absence of exogenous technical change.
Kazuo Mino

Chapter 4. Growth Models with Multiple Steady States

Abstract
This chapter examines growth models in which there are multiple steady states. This class of models can explain why two countries with similar initial conditions sometimes display very different patterns of growth and development.
Kazuo Mino

Chapter 5. Stabilization Effects of Policy Rules

Abstract
The stabilization effects of fiscal and monetary policy in the context of dynamic macroeconomic models with rational expectations differ from the effects in traditional Keynesian models. In the rational expectations setting, if a policy rule eliminates multiplicity of equilibrium, that policy stabilizes the economy in the sense that it excludes sunspot-driven business fluctuations. Conversely, if a policy rule gives rise to equilibrium indeterminacy, that policy destabilizes the economy. Roughly speaking, if a policy rule stabilizes a Keynesian model with backward-looking expectations, the same policy often generates indeterminacy in the equilibrium models with rational expectations.
Kazuo Mino

Chapter 6. Indeterminacy in Open Economies

Abstract
In the previous chapters, we restrict our attention to closed-economy models. This chapter examines equilibrium indeterminacy in open economies. The central concern of this chapter is to explore how international transactions affect the dynamic behaviors of macroeconomies. In particular, we focus on the difference in the indeterminacy conditions between open economies and their closed economy counterparts. We first discuss small open economies and then explore the world economy consisting of two large countries.
Kazuo Mino

Chapter 7. New Directions

Abstract
In this short chapter, we refer to the recent development of macroeconomic models with equilibrium indeterminacy. The global financial crisis of 2007–2008 forced macroeconomists to rethink about their analytical frameworks. The mainstream dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach was severely criticized by practitioners and policy makers because it failed to offer useful policy recommendations for the financial crisis as well as for the prolonged slumps in many countries after the crisis. In the search for new directions in macroeconomic analysis, there is renewed interest in macroeconomic models with equilibrium indeterminacy. In what follows, we pick out a notable sample of the recent studies in the field.
Kazuo Mino

Backmatter

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