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Population and Environment
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01-06-2023 | Original Paper

Heat and drought reduce subnational population growth in the global tropics

Authors: Clark Gray, Maia Call

Published in: Population and Environment | Issue 2/2023

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Abstract

The study examines the impact of heat and drought on subnational population growth in the global tropics using a unique dataset derived from IPUMS Terra. It covers 117 census rounds from 1970 to 2013 in 29 tropical countries, encompassing 1809 spatial units. The research employs fixed-effects regression analysis to control for socio-demographic factors and time-invariant characteristics of districts, revealing significant effects of climate anomalies on population growth rates. The results provide empirical evidence that contradicts popular visions of large-scale depopulation, highlighting the complex interplay between climate change and population dynamics in vulnerable regions.
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Footnotes
1
Censuses included: Bangladesh (1991, 2001, 2011); Benin (1979, 1992, 2002, 2013); Bolivia (1976, 1992, 2001); Botswana (1981, 1991, 2001, 2011); Brazil (1960, 1970, 1980, 1991, 2000, 2010); Cameroon (1976, 1987, 2005); Costa Rica (1963, 1973, 1984, 2000, 2011); Dominican Republic (1960, 1970, 1981, 2010); Ecuador (1962, 1974, 1982, 1990, 2001, 2010); Ghana (1984, 2000, 2010); Haiti (1971, 1982, 2003); Honduras (1961, 1974, 1988, 2001); India (employment surveys) (1983, 1987, 1993, 1999, 2004, 2009); Indonesia (1971, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010); Jamaica (1982, 1991, 2001); Kenya (1969, 1979, 1989, 1999, 2009); Malawi (1987, 1998, 2008); Malaysia (1970, 1980, 1991, 2000); Mali (1987, 1998, 2009); Mexico (1960, 1970, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005); Nicaragua (1971, 1995, 2005); Panama (1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010); Papua New Guinea (1980, 1990, 2000); Paraguay (1962, 1972, 1982, 1992, 2002); Tanzania (1988, 2002, 2012); Thailand (1970, 1980, 1990, 2000); Venezuela (1971, 1981, 1990, 2001); Vietnam (1989, 1999, 2009); Zambia (1990, 2000, 2010).
 
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Metadata
Title
Heat and drought reduce subnational population growth in the global tropics
Authors
Clark Gray
Maia Call
Publication date
01-06-2023
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Published in
Population and Environment / Issue 2/2023
Print ISSN: 0199-0039
Electronic ISSN: 1573-7810
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-023-00420-9

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