How Would the Kyushu Super-Express Railway Opening Change the Flow of Tourists from the Kansai Region within the Kyushu Wide Area, Japan?: A Micro Behavior Analysis of the Destination’s Hub Function

Shinkansen refers to the high-speed bullet train network in Japan. For the Shinkansen network, see Ref. [1]. With the full opening of the Kyushu Shinkansen line, the Shinkansen network will be connected from Tokyo to Kagoshima, and JR West and JR Kyushu plan to jointly operate the direct bullet trains between Osaka and Kagoshima using Sanyo Shinkansen and Kyushu Shinkansen tracks.

Also refer to Saito and Yamashiro [7], which includes their studies based on this approach [8‐12].

Our discussion is closely related to the competing destinations model by Fotheringham [13], in which he demonstrated that a simple gravity model produces biased estimates of the distance-decay parameters if ignoring the destinations’ accessibility measures which reflect the competition between destinations in a given spatial system under the aggregate framework of spatial interaction data. At the disaggregate level, he suggested an explanation that these biases are caused by misspecifying the individual two-stage decision-making behavior as one stage. However, the estimation was based on the aggregate spatial interaction data. In contrast, while we share the concerns with introducing the spatial transactions among destinations, our approach is the micro-behavioral approach, in which modeling and estimation are based on the disaggregate micro-behavior data. Also, we treat the distance decay as the generalized travel cost. Our issue in this study is how the transactions among destinations enhance the unique destination’s attractiveness, that is, not the competitive effect of other destinations on decreasing inflow to a particular destination but the hub effect of other destinations on increasing inflow to a particular destination. As for the aggregate modeling, the competing destinations model and Stouffer’s intervening opportunities model [14] have been combined and evolved into the radiation model due to Simini et al. [15]. For recent developments in the radiation model, refer to Kostubo and Nakaya [16].

This distance is the actual physical distance.

Actually, we collected the samples from the Kansai region residents, and the residents in three prefectures, Fukuoka, Kumamoto, and Kagoshima. However, as for the estimation and prediction of the number of sightseeing visitors from the Kansai region, we only use the samples from the Kansai region residents.

For predicting the number of visitors after the opening of Kyushu Shinkansen, we used only responses to the question items concerning the past travel behaviors to the Kyushu region. We did not use responses to the question items to ask about the intention of visits after the opening.

Usually the Kansai region is defined as composed of six prefectures including Wakayama Prefecture. Since there were no respondents from the residents of Wakayama Prefecture in the survey sample, Wakayama Prefecture was excluded from the analysis.

As of 2021, the shortest travel time from Hakata to Kumamoto is 32 min, and that to Kagoshima is 1 h 12 min.

As of 2021, the fare from Hakata to Kumamoto is 4700 yen and that to Kagoshima 10,110 yen.

The title of Table 10th in Report by Characteristics of Location in the Census of Commerce is “The number of shopping streets, the number of business establishments, the number of large stores, the number of business establishments in large stores, the number of employees, annual merchandise sales, and the sales floor space by commercial districts (shopping streets) by prefecture and city.”

For details including on-site Poisson models, refer to Saito et al. [26, 27].

The prediction results about the changes in tourists from the Kansai region were reported in the following newspapers. Refer to The Asahi [28], Kumamoto Nichinichi Shimbun [29], Nishi Nippon Shimbun [30], and The Mainichi [31‐34].

Cities and towns other than Fukuoka City comprising the Fukuoka metropolitan area as of 2010 are as follows; Cities (Shi): Ogori, Chikushino, Kasuga, Onojo, Munakata, Dazaifu, Koga, Fukutsu, Itoshima; Towns (Machi or Cho): Nakagawa, Umi, Sasaguri, Shime, Sue, Shingu, Hisayama, Kasuya. As of 2021, Nakagawa-Machi is promoted to a city.

Cities and towns other than Kumamoto City comprising the Kumamoto metropolitan area are as of 2010 as follows; Cities (Shi): Uto, Uki, Aso, Koshi; Towns (Machi or Cho): Misato, Gyokuto, Ootsu, Kikuyo, Mifune, Kashima, Mashiki, Kosa; Villages (Mura): Nishihara. Here, while we use the population as of 2005, we employ the administrative divisions as of 2010 due to the following. As for the Kumamoto metropolitan area, from 2005 to 2010, several municipalities at the level of Machi and Mura merged, and they were promoted to cities. For example, Kumamoto City incorporated neighboring towns (Machi) from 2005 to 2010 and became an ordinance-designated city.

Cities other than Kagoshima City comprising the Kagoshima metropolitan area are as of 2010 as follows; Cities (Shi): Ibusuki, Tarumizu, Hioki, IchikiKushikino, Aira. As for the Kagoshima metropolitan area, Kagoshima City, Ibusuki City, Hioki City, IchikiKushikino City, and Aira City have experienced mergers or incorporations of neighboring municipalities from 2004 to 2010 so that we employed the administrative divisions and populations as of 2010 to avoid complexity and confusion.

We have experienced difficulty getting the estimates of the coefficients that have signs that accord with our hypothesis. Therefore, we first deleted the variable, travel cost. Then, we set the hub function for the destination, Kumamoto, to zero. Further, we divided distances between the subject destination and its neighboring destination by the time distance from the sample i’s residence to the subject destination to give the variation to the hub function variable. Finally, we obtained an estimate consistent with our hypothesis.

The forecasting results about the changes in people movements among three prefectures, Fukuoka, Kumamoto, and Kagoshima, were reported in the newspaper, The Mainichi [35, 36].

The original version of this chapter appeared in Saito and Yamashiro [37].