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14-05-2020 | Issue 8/2020

Water Resources Management 8/2020

Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change in a Well-preserved Upland Watershed

Journal:
Water Resources Management > Issue 8/2020
Authors:
Carolina Natel de Moura, Sílvio Luís Rafaeli Neto, Claudia Guimarães Camargo Campos, Eder Alexandre Schatz Sá
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Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​s11269-019-02450-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Abstract

Much attention has been focused on investigating the effects of climate change on hydrological processes on a regional scale. However, the landscape approach, especially the case of well-preserved upland watersheds needs to be further studied. The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) or emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to project the impacts of the climate change on the hydrological components of a well-preserved upland landscape with temperate climate, using the Upper Canoas watershed as a case study. The future hydrological projection indicated an increase in the monthly rainfall as well as a shift in the rainiest months from winter to spring. This change resulted in an increase in water balance components. The maximum discharges, as well as the modal discharge (Q50), may increase in the future, and the minimums corresponding to Q95 and Q98 may reduce for both emission scenarios. The results showed that a well-preserved upland watershed in a sub-tropical region might be capable of maintaining water availability at level that is enough for human activities in the future, even with the reduction of minimum permit discharge, which is supported by the increase of maximum and medium monthly discharges and a stable flow-duration curve.

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