Impact of COVID-19 on Roadway Travel Behavior: A Comparative Study of the States of Washington and Maryland, USA

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on road transport globally. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the decline of roadway Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) which led to loss of highway trust fund revenue in the States of Washington and Maryland, USA. We use a time-series analysis to forecast the VMT under no COVID scenario and compare it with the actual observed VMT data. We find that during COVID-19, in 2020, the monthly VMT in Washington was only 55% of the expected VMT in the most critical month. Further analysis showed that 28 out of 38 Counties in Washington experienced a drop of at least 10% in VMT in 2020 compared to 2019. A decline in VMT resulted in a decline of reduced gasoline sales in both States, albeit the decline was higher in Maryland compared to Washington. This, in turn, affected the highway trust fund used for road repairs and other public services. A time-series analysis was performed using Exponential Smoothing Model and SARIMA. These models were trained using historical data, and their accuracy was evaluated by comparing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Symmetrical Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE), and Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE). The study highlights the importance of monitoring transportation trends during crisis and provides valuable insights that can help policymakers develop effective transportation policies that promote sustainable mobility and resilience in the face of future crisis.