Impact of Pressure on the Deterioration of Drinking Water Distribution Networks

Drinking water distribution systems must safely meet the expected demand for water. However, sudden pipe breaks can limit the continuous supply of drinking water. As operating pressure is among the factors affecting the probability of pipe breaks, a methodology was developed in this study to identify the pressure covariates that affect the frequency of water distribution pipe breaks. Five pressure covariates obtained from hydraulic simulations based on measured pressure and flow rate time series were evaluated using a likelihood ratio test to compare the maximum likelihood function values of a pipe break model calibrated with no covariates with those of the same model calibrated with a single pressure covariate. This pipe break model was calibrated using the recorded history of pipe breaks over a six-year period and applied to two district metered areas in the water distribution network of Quebec, Canada. The results indicated that the maximum and mean pressure covariates were significantly associated with the occurrence of pipe breaks.