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Biodiversity and Conservation

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02-11-2024 | Original Research

Improving the spatial transferability of species distribution models to inform biological conservation of two piscivore fish species

Authors: Jing Luan, Binduo Xu, Yupeng Ji, Chongliang Zhang, Ying Xue, Yiping Ren

Published in: Biodiversity and Conservation | Issue 14/2024

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Abstract

Transferability of species distribution models (SDMs) is vital for guiding biological conversation in the changing marine ecosystems, whereas most SDMs have remained insufficiently tested in terms of transferences. Particularly, the roles of biotic interactions in shaping ecological niches had less been considered when predictive models are transferred into a new circumstance. Therefore, using silver croaker (Pennahia argentata) and slender lizardfish (Saurida elongata), two keystone predators in the coastal systems as examples, this study examined how the consideration of abiotic and biotic factors as well as spatial autocorrelation would improve the transferability of prevalent SDMs. We collected the data of species abundance and hydrological variables from coastal waters of Shandong Peninsula, China, and developed a framework to evaluate the interpolation performance and spatial transferability of SDMs with respect to different modelling algorithms and combinations of covariates. The covariates tested included (1) abiotic environmental variables only; (2) biotic variables of prey availability only; (3) both abiotic and biotic variables; and (4) spatial autocorrelation in addition to other variables. Generally, our results showed that including abiotic and biotic variables simultaneously could improve the model transferability, whereas biotic models exhibited greater uncertainty and overestimation in spatial transferences when delineating suitable habitats. Besides, models accounting for spatial autocorrelation yielded more accurate forecasts for slender lizardfish’s abundance, and were less limited by geographic distance in transference. Regarding the model algorithms, GLM slightly outperformed GAM and RF overall, while RF showed more robust spatial extrapolations in many cases. Our transferability evaluations offer the opportunity to extend the use of biotic signals and spatial autocorrelation to improve the forecasts of habitat suitability, which would be informative for guiding marine conservation actions.

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Title: Improving the spatial transferability of species distribution models to inform biological conservation of two piscivore fish species
Authors: Jing Luan
Binduo Xu
Yupeng Ji
Chongliang Zhang
Ying Xue
Yiping Ren
Publication date: 02-11-2024
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Published in: Biodiversity and Conservation / Issue 14/2024
Print ISSN: 0960-3115
Electronic ISSN: 1572-9710
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-024-02947-1

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