In 2040, Half of Vehicles Will Still Use Internal Combustion Engines

The article delves into the projected longevity of Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs) in the global vehicle market, with estimates suggesting that by 2040, half of all new vehicles will still use ICEs. Despite the surge in Electric Vehicle (EV) sales, ICEs remain significant, particularly in hybrid drives. Economic geography, investment in alternative fuels, and support for existing fleets are key factors driving this trend. The article highlights the disparity in EV adoption between heavily urbanized markets like China and Europe, and the rest of the world, where different mobility solutions are required. It emphasizes the role of ICEs in rural economies and the global south, where infrastructure challenges persist. The article also discusses the substantial investments in alternative fuel technologies, projected to reach $51 billion by 2030, and the need for iterative sustainable evolution of existing ICE-powered fleets. It argues for tailored solutions based on regional circumstances, cautioning against a one-size-fits-all approach to sustainable mobility.