Incorporation of Climate Nonstationarity into Codes and Beyond

Past studies have shown that climate change can result in a nonstationary future climate. The nonstationarity of extreme climates poses challenges to the design community. It challenges the conventional assumption of using stationary historical climates to determine design loads in future design working life of infrastructure. Climate change adaptation to a changing climate requires consideration of the nonstationarity of the future climate in determining design values. Incorporation of nonstationarity of future climate into codes and standards is an effective way of adapting to a changing climate. To explore a practical approach, this paper will review and summarize examples of how the nonstationary future climate could impact structural design and reliability. Future projections for several regions in Canada will be used to explore the nonstationarity in a changing climate. The uncertainties of the nonstationarity in future predictions are discussed. The effect of how the nonstationarity is modeled on the design loads and reliability will be explored. The cost and benefit of having the nonstationary climate in the structure design are explored. Different combinations of climatic loads that could be affected by climate change are considered. Challenges and opportunities for incorporating the nonstationary climate into codes and standards are discussed.