4. Indian Ocean Maritime Security Strategic Risk Assessment

Major risks that impact the achievement of strategic objectives and, consequently, the security of the Indian Ocean region maritime system are outlined. Generic evaluation criteria are defined to enable likelihood, consequences and overall risk impacts to be assessed. Nineteen strategic risks are identified, along with shared vulnerabilities. These are cross-referenced to the 15 strategic objectives discussed in Chap. 3. Relationships are not linear; in many cases, objectives are affected by multiple risks and vice versa; cumulative and aggregated risks must also be considered. Risks to maritime navigation, sovereignty, energy and environment, and those from the lack of regional security architectures are high on the list. Understanding risks and vulnerabilities aids in targeting opportunities for improvements and enhancements to regional maritime security. A necessary basis is provided for risk treatment and vulnerability reduction efforts.