Investigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: Empirical Study on the Relationships Among Carbon Emissions, International Crude Oil Prices, Total Factor Productivity, Research and Development, International Trade Balance in US

Our research investigated the relationships among carbon emissions, crude oil prices, total factor productivity (TFP), research and development (R&D), and international trade balance in the US. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we analyzed annual data from 1970 to 2021. Our findings revealed a two-way relationship between carbon emissions and TFP, and identified oil prices as causes of carbon emissions, while carbon emissions influenced trade balance. In the long term, carbon emissions had minimal effects on TFP and R&D but significantly impacted trade balances. TFP negatively affected carbon emissions. Moreover, increasing TFP and investment in R&D are crucial for mitigating emissions. In the short term, the impact of these variables on carbon emissions was lower. Changes in TFP and R&D influenced by carbon emissions had persistent negative effects, while oil prices and trade balance had modest, long-term positive impacts on emission volatility. These findings emphasize that insufficient growth in TFP hampers efforts to reduce environmental degradation and highlight the importance of enhancing total factor productivity and investing in research and development to mitigate carbon emissions in the long run.