Skip to main content
Top

2012 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

Investment Timing, Capacity Sizing, and Technology Choice of Power Plants

Authors : Ryuta Takashima, Afzal S. Siddiqui, Shoji Nakada

Published in: Handbook of Networks in Power Systems I

Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Deregulation of electricity industries has created wholesale markets with uncertain prices and offered greater flexibility to investors to make decisions. In this chapter, we consider the problem of a typical investor who has discretion over not only the timing, but also the sizing of a new power plant. The interaction between these two types of managerial flexibility may be addressed analytically using the real options approach. Since an investor may also have discretion over technology choice, we allow for an investment opportunity in two mutually exclusive projects with embedded timing and sizing options. Via numerical examples, we illustrate how an investor may make decisions about timing, sizing, and technology choice. Sensitivity analyses to key parameters also highlight the intuition for how decisions are made.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Footnotes
1
In this paper, the cost, which we consider, contains no costs for building and operation of electric networks, and also on transport of electric energy to consumers. Thus, this paper doesn’t deal necessarily with transmission costs, but more with transmission planning (see Sauma and Oren [22]).
 
2
Although Dangl [20] considers the investment timing and the plant sizing with operational flexibility, as described previously, in this chapter we assume that the power plant does not have such discretion.
 
Literature
1.
go back to reference Wilson RB (1998) Architecture of power markets. Econometrica 70:1299–1340CrossRef Wilson RB (1998) Architecture of power markets. Econometrica 70:1299–1340CrossRef
2.
go back to reference Hyman LS (2009) Restructuring electricity policy and financial models. Energy Econ, 32(4):751–757CrossRef Hyman LS (2009) Restructuring electricity policy and financial models. Energy Econ, 32(4):751–757CrossRef
3.
go back to reference Dixit AK, Pindyck RS (1994) Investment under uncertainty. Princeton University Press, Princeton Dixit AK, Pindyck RS (1994) Investment under uncertainty. Princeton University Press, Princeton
4.
go back to reference McDonald R, Siegel D (1986) The value of waiting to invest. Q J Econ 101:707–727CrossRef McDonald R, Siegel D (1986) The value of waiting to invest. Q J Econ 101:707–727CrossRef
5.
go back to reference Ekern S (1988) An option pricing approach to evaluating petroleum projects. Energy Econ 10:91–99CrossRef Ekern S (1988) An option pricing approach to evaluating petroleum projects. Energy Econ 10:91–99CrossRef
6.
go back to reference Deng S-J, Johnson B, Sogomonian A (2001) Exotic electricity options and the valuation of electricity and generation assets. Decis Support Syst 30:383–392CrossRef Deng S-J, Johnson B, Sogomonian A (2001) Exotic electricity options and the valuation of electricity and generation assets. Decis Support Syst 30:383–392CrossRef
7.
8.
go back to reference Deng S-J, Oren SS (2003) Incorporating operational characteristics and startup costs in option-based valuation of power generation capacity. Probability Eng Informational Sci 17:155–181CrossRef Deng S-J, Oren SS (2003) Incorporating operational characteristics and startup costs in option-based valuation of power generation capacity. Probability Eng Informational Sci 17:155–181CrossRef
9.
go back to reference Rothwell G (2006) A real options approach to evaluating new nuclear power plants. Energy J 27:37–53CrossRef Rothwell G (2006) A real options approach to evaluating new nuclear power plants. Energy J 27:37–53CrossRef
10.
go back to reference Gollier C, Proult D, Thais F, Walgenwitz G (2005) Choice of nuclear power investments under price uncertainty: valuing modularity. Energy Econ 27:667–685CrossRef Gollier C, Proult D, Thais F, Walgenwitz G (2005) Choice of nuclear power investments under price uncertainty: valuing modularity. Energy Econ 27:667–685CrossRef
11.
go back to reference Näsäkkälä E, Fleten S-E (2005) Flexibility and technology choice in gas fired power plant investments. Rev Financ Econ 14:371–393CrossRef Näsäkkälä E, Fleten S-E (2005) Flexibility and technology choice in gas fired power plant investments. Rev Financ Econ 14:371–393CrossRef
12.
go back to reference Siddiqui AS, Maribu K (2009) Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty. Energy Econ 31:25–37CrossRef Siddiqui AS, Maribu K (2009) Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty. Energy Econ 31:25–37CrossRef
13.
go back to reference Bøckman T, Fleten S-E, Juliussen E, Langhammer H, Revdal J (2008) Investment timing and optimal capacity choice for small hydropower projects. Eur J Oper Res 190:255–267CrossRef Bøckman T, Fleten S-E, Juliussen E, Langhammer H, Revdal J (2008) Investment timing and optimal capacity choice for small hydropower projects. Eur J Oper Res 190:255–267CrossRef
14.
go back to reference Takashima R, Naito Y, Kimura H, Madarame H (2007) Decommissioning and equipment replacement of nuclear power plants under uncertainty. J Nucl Sci Technol 44:1347–1355CrossRef Takashima R, Naito Y, Kimura H, Madarame H (2007) Decommissioning and equipment replacement of nuclear power plants under uncertainty. J Nucl Sci Technol 44:1347–1355CrossRef
15.
go back to reference Décamps J-P, Mariotti T, Villeneuve S (2006) Irreversible investment in alternative projects. Econ Theory 28:425–448MathSciNetCrossRef Décamps J-P, Mariotti T, Villeneuve S (2006) Irreversible investment in alternative projects. Econ Theory 28:425–448MathSciNetCrossRef
16.
17.
go back to reference Fleten S-E, Maribu KM, Wangensteen I (2007) Optimal investment strategies in decentralized renewable power generation under uncertainty. Energy 32:803–815CrossRef Fleten S-E, Maribu KM, Wangensteen I (2007) Optimal investment strategies in decentralized renewable power generation under uncertainty. Energy 32:803–815CrossRef
18.
go back to reference Wickart M, Madlener R (2007) Optimal technology choice and investment timing: a stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production. Energy Econ 29:934–952CrossRef Wickart M, Madlener R (2007) Optimal technology choice and investment timing: a stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production. Energy Econ 29:934–952CrossRef
19.
go back to reference Takashima R, Goto M, Kimura H, Madarame H (2008) Entry into the electricity market: uncertainty, competition, and mothballing options. Energy Econ 30:1809–1830CrossRef Takashima R, Goto M, Kimura H, Madarame H (2008) Entry into the electricity market: uncertainty, competition, and mothballing options. Energy Econ 30:1809–1830CrossRef
20.
go back to reference Dangl T (1999) Investment and capacity choice under uncertain demand. Eur J Oper Res 117:415–428CrossRef Dangl T (1999) Investment and capacity choice under uncertain demand. Eur J Oper Res 117:415–428CrossRef
21.
go back to reference Bar-Ilan A, Strange WC (1996) Investment lags. Am Econ Rev 86(3):610–622 A real-options approach. Rev Financ Stud 16:1239–1272MATH Bar-Ilan A, Strange WC (1996) Investment lags. Am Econ Rev 86(3):610–622 A real-options approach. Rev Financ Stud 16:1239–1272MATH
22.
go back to reference Sauma EE, Oren SS (2006) Proactive planning and valuation of transmission investments in restructured electricity markets. J Regul Econ 30:261–290CrossRef Sauma EE, Oren SS (2006) Proactive planning and valuation of transmission investments in restructured electricity markets. J Regul Econ 30:261–290CrossRef
Metadata
Title
Investment Timing, Capacity Sizing, and Technology Choice of Power Plants
Authors
Ryuta Takashima
Afzal S. Siddiqui
Shoji Nakada
Copyright Year
2012
Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-23193-3_12

Premium Partner