Japan Decides 2024

Table of Contents

1. Frontmatter

2. Introduction

   1. Frontmatter

   2. Chapter 1. Introduction: LDP Dominance on the Edge

      Kenneth M. McElwain, Robert J. Pekkanen, Daniel M. Smith

      Abstract

      This book brings together top experts of Japanese politics to analyze the political context, central policy issues, party strategies, and voter behavior in the 50th General Election for Japan’s House of Representatives (HR), held on October 27, 2024. The headline of the 2024 election was the dramatic rebuke of the governing parties by voters. The LDP–Kōmeitō coalition lost a combined 76 seats and fell short of a majority in the HR. The LDP’s loss of 68 seats marked its second-worst defeat in its 70-year history. Why did the LDP fare so poorly? Did the opposition win as much as the LDP lost? And what do the results reveal about the future trajectory of Japanese electoral politics? In this introductory chapter, we begin with a brief narrative of political developments between the 2021 and 2024 general elections, setting the stage for the volume. We then provide an overview of the chapters, each of which examines an important aspect of the 2024 election, and which collectively offer a coherent picture of its significance.

   3. Chapter 2. The 2024 Election Results: A Political Earthquake

      Ko Maeda

      Abstract

      The general election held on October 27, 2024, delivered a political earthquake. The ruling LDP-Kōmeitō coalition significantly decreased its seats and lost a majority that it had maintained since 2012. Although the LDP’s vote loss occurred in most parts of the country, its single-member district (SMD) candidates who faced a centrist party opponent lost more votes than others. While the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, made significant gains in its seat share, its vote share remained almost unchanged. The party was able to flip many SMD seats without increasing its votes due to LDP candidates' vote losses. The CDP continues to struggle in appealing to centrist voters, who in this election bolstered the Democratic Party for the People (DPP). The DPP effectively utilized social media platforms to advocate economic policies targeted at young voters, and its proportional representation (PR) vote share more than tripled compared to the last election. With the two largest parties both struggling, Japan’s party system is not converging toward a stable structure of party competition.

3. Political Parties

   1. Frontmatter

   2. Chapter 3. Reasons Behind the LDP's Loss in the 2024 Election

      Kuniaki Nemoto

      Abstract

      This chapter explores why the LDP lost badly in the 2024 election. It argues that the two scandals—the Unification Church scandal and the Uragane (Slush Fund) scandal—intensified the public's discontent with the party. In addition, the LDP and its new leader, Ishiba, could not regain enraged voters’ trust, since their countermeasures were ineffective. LDP members with some ties to the Unification Church were not met with any disciplinary actions at all. Most of those who received illegal kickbacks were able to evade any criminal charges, with some punishments given in an ad hoc manner just right before the official campaign period began. As a result, enraged voters electorally punished LDP candidates by using their ballots.

   3. Chapter 4. The CDP in 2024: The Legacy of the Electoral Coalition with the JCP

      Fumi Ikeda

      Abstract

      The 2024 general election was held under similar circumstances to the 2009 general election, in which the former Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the largest opposition party at the time, defeated the ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). In the 2009 general election, the DPJ won a landslide victory primarily because the public had become distrustful of the LDP. For the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the 2024 election was a potential step toward a change in government, like that in 2009, by gaining voters critical of the LDP. Although the CDP increased seats from before the announcement of the election, the CDP could not achieve a change of government and missed the opportunity to be the ruling party. In the three-year period from the 2021 and 2024 general elections, the CDP sought an electoral coalition among opposition parties (Yatō-Kyōtō). However, an electoral coalition with the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) was controversial. While the unification of candidates and the JCP’s community-based electoral base was attractive for the CDP, the CDP attempted to avoid a leftist image to appeal to voters. This chapter examines the party management of the CDP for approximately three years, from the last general election in 2021 to the 2024 general election, especially from the perspective of its electoral coalition with the JCP. It then analyzes the CDP’s candidate nominations, election strategies, and election results in the 2024 general election.

   4. Chapter 5. A Costly Coalition: Kōmeitō’s Enduring Partnership with the LDP

      Axel Klein, Levi McLaughlin

      Abstract

      This chapter provides an overview of Kōmeitō’s electoral performance since 2021, focusing on reasons for the party’s poor 2024 general election results. Our analysis shows that Kōmeitō has been shaped in recent years by adverse factors that include the aging of its main support base, the lay Buddhist organization Sōka Gakkai, and the death of the Gakkai’s charismatic leader Ikeda Daisaku. Kōmeitō has also suffered significant costs by remaining a coalition partner to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has become the target of intense and lasting critique. Fallout from the LDP’s 2023 slush-fund scandal and public outrage following the 2022 assassination of Abe Shinzō affected Kōmeitō’s electoral performance. A once stable relationship between Kōmeitō and LDP leaders has worsened, exacerbating tensions within the coalition. Despite declining election returns, however, Kōmeitō remains a political force to be reckoned with, thanks to its support from Japan’s largest organized voting bloc and its vital role in guaranteeing the election of LDP candidates to the National Diet.

   5. Chapter 6. Why Did Public Support for the Japan Innovation Party Decline in the 2024 HR Election?

      Masahiro Zenkyo

      Abstract

      The Japan Innovation Party (hereafter, Ishin) faced a notable decline in proportional representation (PR) votes in the 2024 House of Representatives election. Why did many people who voted for Ishin in past elections withdraw their support in 2024? This study investigates the reasons for Ishin’s defeat in the 2024 election through empirical analyses based on two online surveys. Study 1 examined the relationship between the evaluation of party leader Baba and support for Ishin using an online survey conducted between September 30 and October 4 among eligible voters in Osaka. The results of Study 1 show that evaluations of Baba were significantly related to support for Ishin, even when controlling for its relationship with support for Osaka Ishin. Study 2 examined the relationship between evaluations of Ishin’s competence and changes in voting behavior from past elections, based on an online panel survey that was conducted before and after the 2024 election. The results of Study 2 demonstrate that evaluations of Ishin’s competence were strongly associated with whether individuals who voted for Ishin in past national elections continued to do so in 2024. These findings suggest that the decline in evaluations of Ishin’s competence was likely the primary reason for its defeat in the 2024 election.

4. The Campaign

   1. Frontmatter

   2. Chapter 7. Electoral Campaigns in Japan’s 2024 HR Election: Emerging Signs of Transformation

      Michio Umeda

      Abstract

      The 2024 House of Representatives election in Japan revealed both persistent structural features and notable transformations in electoral politics. Institutional factors such as the prime minister’s authority to dissolve the chamber, short campaign periods, and the continuing influence of an aging electorate remained significant. At the same time, the relative depopulation of rural areas and the decline of the dankai generation underscored shifts in the political landscape. The election also highlighted the growing role of digital campaigning, with parties such as the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and Reiwa Shinsengumi leveraging online platforms, particularly YouTube, to engage younger voters and emphasize economic issues, in contrast to established opposition parties that remained focused on political scandals. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), under Ishiba Shigeru, suffered setbacks due to a rural-centered campaign strategy, weak party unity, and the mishandling of political finance scandals, which eroded its leadership image. Overall, the 2024 election marked a turning point, reflecting the interplay of demographic and technological changes in shaping future party competition and campaign strategies in Japan.

   3. Chapter 8. Policy Positions of the Candidates

      Masaki Taniguchi, Taka-aki Asano, Shōko Ōmori, Shūsuke Takamiya

      Abstract

      The UTokyo-Asahi Survey (UTAS), a collaboration between the University of Tokyo and the Asahi Shimbun, has been conducting surveys of political leaders and voters since 2003. The 2024 survey analyzed candidates’ positions on key issues such as the constitution, foreign affairs, security, the economy, society, and political reform. The LDP and CPJ support constitutional revision and strengthening defense, while the JCP, SDP, and Reiwa strongly oppose these measures. Although 57% of the candidates supported constitutional amendments, support for revising the Self-Defense Forces clause remains below the two-thirds majority required. Economic policy showed a shift as support for quantitative easing declined, especially within the LDP. Debt concerns divided the parties, with the LDP, DPP, and Reiwa less concerned and the CDP candidates more cautious. The rise of smaller populist parties such as Reiwa, Sanseitō, and CPJ suggests increasing polarization. Social policies also reflected changes, with support for nuclear power rising to 44%. While acceptance of same-sex marriage and separate surnames for married couples increased, the LDP remained divided. The 2024 election focused on political reform, largely due to the LDP's funding scandal. Opposition parties criticized the revised Political Funds Control Law and called for greater transparency in political funding. The ideological gap between the LDP and the CDP narrowed, while new extremist parties emerged. The DPP, which gained influence as a centrist force, may play a key role in future coalition formations. 

   4. Chapter 9. How Party Manifestos Framed Political Distrust in the 2024 Election

      Tomoko Matsumoto

      Abstract

      This chapter analyzes how political distrust was framed in party manifestos during Japan’s 2024 House of Representatives election, held amid funding scandals that heightened public disillusionment. Using manifestos from all seat-winning parties, the study shows that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Kōmeitō framed distrust as an informational issue solvable through transparency and compliance, while opposition parties framed it as systemic corruption linked to inefficiency and plutocratic influence. The chapter also highlights generational distrust, noting how the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) prioritized disposable income and equity for younger voters, distinguishing itself from both ruling and major opposition parties.

   5. Chapter 10. Public Opinion and Scandals in Economic Hard Times

      Yukio Maeda

      Abstract

      The 2024 HR election marks the first general election following the assassination of Abe Shinzō, a strong leader who wielded considerable influence even after his premiership. In his second term, Abe served for more than 92 months and was immensely popular with the public. Succeeding a highly popular and long-serving prime minister is never an easy task, but in the wake of Abe’s death, the Liberal Democratic Party faced two major scandals: its ties to the Unification Church (UC) and the slush fund scandal, both of which can be traced back to Abe or his faction. Furthermore, since early 2022, the Japanese economy has experienced a steady rise in consumer prices, which had remained stagnant since the latter half of the 1990s. These changes in economic conditions have placed an additional burden on the government. The rising consumer prices have not only generated public discontent but have also compelled voters to significantly penalize the governing coalition in response to the slush fund scandals.

   6. Chapter 11. Social Media in the 2024 General Election

      Robert A. Fahey

      Abstract

      The 2024 general election is widely seen as the first national election in Japan in which social media played a truly significant and impactful role. Although many of the country’s most-followed politicians on platforms such as X/Twitter are senior Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) figures, most candidates from mainstream parties employed an anodyne and non-interactive approach to social media campaigning, creating a messaging opportunity that was exploited particularly effectively by the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), as well as by fringe parties such as Sanseitō and the Conservative Party of Japan (CPJ). On X and YouTube in particular, the comparatively weak social media campaigns of mainstream candidates meant that messaging from the DPP and fringe groups could spread across the platforms largely unchallenged, despite concerns that some of it constituted misinformation or even conspiracy theories. Survey data from the election confirms that a significant divide has emerged in terms of the information sources used by supporters of different types of parties, with supporters of the DPP, CPJ, Sanseitō, and Reiwa Shinsengumi tending to forego traditional media such as TV and newspapers in favor of social media platforms. Concerns about the role of social media in this election, along with the controversial role of social media and online misinformation during other electoral contests in 2024 such as the Tokyo and Hyogo gubernatorial elections, has led to suggestions by some politicians that the rules and regulations governing the use of these platforms in political campaigning should be reconsidered.

   7. Chapter 12. Partisanship and Turnout in the 2024 General Election

      Tetsuya Matsubayashi

      Abstract

      Voter turnout in the 2024 General Election was 53.85%, which was 2.08 percentage points lower than the 2021 General Election. Given that the number of eligible citizens is approximately 100 million in the recent national elections in Japan, the drop in turnout might occur because approximately 2 million people who voted in 2021 decided not to vote in 2024, while all other people made the same decision in 2021 and 2024. Alternatively, the drop might occur because there were more people who voted in 2021 but abstained in 2024 than those who abstained in 2021 but voted in 2024, while all others made the same decision in the two elections. Since voter turnout fluctuates across elections, it is essential to understand the factors that drive the change in people’s decisions from turnout to abstention or vice versa.

5. Issues

   1. Frontmatter

   2. Chapter 13. Scandals During the Kishida Administration

      Matthew M. Carlson

      Abstract

      Scandals are common in all democracies and Japan is no exception. In the last three years, Japanese politics has experienced a slush fund scandal, bureaucratic policy failure scandals, financial scandals linked to politicians, as well as scandals and controversies linked to religion.

   3. Chapter 14. Perennial Fears, Novel Responses: The Unification Church in Japan after the Abe Assassination

      Levi McLaughlin

      Abstract

      In March 2025, the Tokyo District Court ordered the legal dissolution of the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification, a controversial South Korea-based religion better known as the Unification Church. The church attracted intense public and political scrutiny after the July 2022 assassination of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzō when it was revealed that his murderer was motivated by political support for the religion. This chapter tracks legal and political developments that unfolded from the time of the murder up to the dissolution. It considers reasons for unprecedented applications of Japanese law to remove legal status from the Unification Church and contextualizes public outcry about links between the church and Japanese politicians within modern Japanese religious and political history. The chapter concludes by considering the local-level female church parishioners who will shoulder the burden of maintaining their religion after it loses its religious juridical person status.

   4. Chapter 15. Increase in Women’s Representation and Candidates’ Positions on Gender Equality Issues

      Yuki Tsuji

      Abstract

       The 2024 general election broke records for women’s representation in the House of Representatives, although the percentage of female members of parliament (MPs) in the Lower House remains much lower than the global average. Seventy-three women were elected in 2024, accounting for 15.7% of the seats. This chapter examines the results of the election by gender, party, and constituency of candidates, classifies the previous careers of female newcomer candidates and winners, and investigates the issue positions of candidates on the legislation of dual surnames for married couples, paying particular attention to the changes among Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) members. 

   5. Chapter 16. LGBTQ+ Rights Issues and the 2024 Japanese Election

      Kazuyoshi Kawasaka

      Abstract

      LGBTQ+ rights issues have increasingly become a divisive issue in Japanese politics, and LGBTQ+ related policies reflect each party’s ideological position on family and human rights issues. This chapter analyzes Japanese major parties’ political positions on LGBTQ+ rights issues through a study of their manifestos. It begins with a summary of the LGBTQ+ rights issues currently being faced in Japan and their historical context, followed by a discussion of the first LGBTQ+-related law since the 2004 GID Act and the major LGBTQ+ rights judicial cases during the 2021–2024 Diet term. Then it discusses the weaponization of LGBTQ+ rights by the Japanese religious right. Finally, the chapter proceeds to an analysis of Japanese ruling and opposition parties’ LGBTQ+ policies in the 2024 general election, exploring the kinds of LGBTQ+ issues that became politically divisive and their influence on the election. In the conclusion, this chapter points out that the Japanese political parties’ manifestos in the 2024 election indicate that LGBTQ+ policies and narratives in general are moving in a more conservative and less LGBTQ+-friendly direction, although the CDP, a pro-LGBTQ+ left-leaning party, consolidated its position as the largest opposition party, threatening the LDP’s majority.

   6. Chapter 17. Childcare Policy in the 2024 Election: Who Resonated with the Public Amid an Unprecedented Birthrate Decline?

      Reiko Arami

      Abstract

      This chapter clarifies how childcare policy was positioned in the 2024 general election. Japan’s demographic crisis—characterized by record-low birth and marriage rates, an aging population, and shrinking households—has made childcare policy a persistent and politically complex issue. While it gained political traction with the DPJ’s child allowance in 2009, substantial policy expansion began under the Abe administration, which tied childcare to economic revitalization. Subsequent LDP governments advanced free preschool and higher education, paternity leave reform, and in 2023 introduced the “Children’s Future Strategy” and a 3.6 trillion yen “Acceleration Plan” to reverse the birthrate decline. In 2024, most parties proposed expanding benefits and eliminating costs for childcare and education. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and Reiwa Shinsengumi stood out with distinctive proposals, such as scholarship amnesties, full income compensation during childcare leave, and tailored tax relief. Despite such efforts, many parties offered vague funding strategies. While DPP and Reiwa performed well in proportional representation, regression analysis reveals that candidates prioritizing childcare policy did not gain more votes in single-member districts. As child-rearing households shrink, childcare policy increasingly overlaps with gender, family, and labor market reform. Despite growing social investment, conservative institutions and corporate-based welfare continue to impede deeper change. After the election, the LDP adopted select proposals from DPP and Ishin, like expanding free education. However, without addressing structural issues like long working hours and entrenched gender norms, childcare policy may fail to inspire broader support—limiting its effectiveness and long-term political sustainability.

   7. Chapter 18. Election Under Inflation: LDP’s Choice of Macroeconomic Policy

      Kenya Amano, Saori N. Katada

      Abstract

      The 2024 Lower House election took place under a rare economic circumstance in Japan’s recent history, marked by noticeable inflation amid persistently low wages. This chapter examines how such economic conditions influenced the dismal electoral outcome for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) under the brand-new Ishiba government. We argue that Prime Minister Ishiba’s defense of fiscal health and his slow dole-out of distributional measures in the face of the economic policy trilemma of targets of spending and fiscal discipline constituted an essential variable in explaining the LDP’s relative defeat to parties such as DPP or Reiwa, as these opposition parties capitalized on such distributional policies with significant tax reductions.

   8. Chapter 19. Japan Decides Its Role in the Global Economy: Trade and Economic Security in the 2024 Election

      Kristin Vekasi

      Abstract

       This chapter analyzes how Japanese political parties navigated trade policy and economic security in the 2024 general election, revealing both broad consensus and subtle ideological divides. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Kōmeitō coalition advanced policies that continued to institutionalize economic security policies, emphasizing these even over more typical trade agreements and policies. Opposition parties from across the spectrum largely endorsed similar objectives, differing mainly on implementation strategies and sectoral priorities. Using party platforms, manifestos, and official statements to trace how key actors framed trade, industrial policy, and national resilience, the chapter highlights how Japan has embraced a dual approach, maintaining leadership in regional trade integration through agreements like the CPTPP and RCEP, while simultaneously strengthening domestic capacity in semiconductors, critical materials, and emerging technologies. Although smaller parties from both the right and left, such as Ishin, Reiwa, and the Japanese Communist Party, challenged the prevailing consensus with critiques that ranged from nationalist hawkishness to concerns about state overreach, the election reinforced the status quo on economic security and trade. The chapter concludes that Japan’s strategy of pragmatic engagement in global markets, tempered by targeted economic security measures, is likely to persist. Moreover, as the United States becomes a less predictable economic partner, Japan is potentially positioned to take on a greater leadership role in shaping the international economic order.

   9. Chapter 20. Conclusion: The LDP Loses Trust and the Illusion of Invincibility

      Kenneth M. McElwain, Robert J. Pekkanen, Daniel M. Smith

      Abstract

      The October 27, 2024, general election for the House of Representatives (HR) was a disaster for the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, Kōmeitō. How did the LDP manage to squander its dominance? Drawing on the insights presented in this volume, we argue that one of the defining differences between the 2021 and 2024 general elections was the basis on which voters judged the ruling party. In 2021, the LDP was seen as competent, or at least as more capable of governing than the opposition. By 2024, this perception had eroded. The election was no longer about competence, but about integrity. Revelations of ties between LDP politicians and the Unification Church, combined with the reemergence of factional slush fund scandals, painted a picture of a party unwilling or unable to reform. The sense that the LDP could no longer be trusted, on top of growing frustration with its policy direction, turned disaffection into rejection. In this concluding chapter, we synthesize the key analytical takeaways from the chapters in the volume to offer a coherent narrative for understanding the election results. In the process, we underline the historical significance of the 2024 election for Japanese politics and place it into comparative context with other incumbent party defeats in democratic elections around the world.

6. Backmatter