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Empirical Economics OnlineFirst articles

Peer effects with sample selection: an application in online job training

We study peer effects in social interactions models where individual participation in actual groups is endogenous. By exploiting instruments in participation choices, we identify and estimate the peer and contextual effects using both individual- …

Bayesian average of classical estimates for panel data: Can the puzzle of the shape of the regional Kuznets curve be solved?

  • Open Access
  • Short note

We evaluate the robustness of the regional Kuznets curve using the Bayesian average of classical estimates for panel data and identify the robust determinants of regional inequality. Our simulation exercise suggests that this method recovers the …

Can site-specific recommendations reduce technology and managerial gaps? Evidence from RiceAdvice in the Senegal River Valley

  • Open Access
  • Original Article

This paper assesses the effects of the adoption of site-specific recommendations generated through an Android app called RiceAdvice on rice farmers’ technological advantage and managerial performance in the Senegal River Valley (SRV). The study …

Government spending reallocations and inequality: evidence from middle-income countries

  • Open Access

We assess the impact of spending reallocations on inequality in a fiscally neutral scenario for a sample of 51 middle-income countries over the period between 2005 and 2015. This is relevant given that developing countries that aim to address …

Labour responsiveness to income tax changes: empirical evidence from a DID analysis of an income tax treatment in Italy

  • Open Access

This paper uses an Italian income tax treatment occurred in 2006/7 as a quasi-natural tax experiment and offers some fresh empirical evidence on how labour supply responds to exogenous income tax hikes. The specific features of the Italian tax …

Labor cost shock, export, and export compositions: evidence from China

This study investigates how a labor cost shock, the implementation of the labor contract law (LCL), impacts export propensity and composition in China. Using a firm-level panel dataset from 2004 to 2013, we find that LCL has an overall negative …

Digital empowerment and the development resilience in rural households: causal inference based on double machine learning

  • Original Paper

The digital economy has gradually become an essential engine for rural modernization, with significant implications for enhancing rural household development resilience and consolidating the achievements in poverty alleviation (Wang et al. in …

Decomposing supply- and demand-driven inflation in Turkey

  • Open Access

We document the demand- and supply-driven components of inflation in Türkiye by following the decomposition method of Shapiro (J Money Credit Bank, 2024). The results suggest that the recent surge in inflation, which began with the COVID-19 …

The Unemployment Invariance Hypothesis in West Virginia: A Tale of Two Indicators

  • Open Access

The efficacy of economic development policies in supporting struggling regions, like West Virginia, often depends on the relationship between the labor force participation rate (LFPR) and unemployment rate (UR). Policies aimed at raising wages …

Does inflation affect well-being?

  • Open Access
  • Replication study

After years of low and stable inflation, high inflation rates have returned in many countries around the world. This paper highlights the importance of outliers for the study of whether inflation is associated with individual-level well-being …

Dynamic responses of carbon emissions to central environmental protection inspection in China

Top-down environmental protection inspections have been conducted to promote sustainable development in many developing countries over the past decade. However, the magnitude and pattern of their impacts on carbon dioxide (CO2) emission intensity …

Who works longer hours in smart cities?

This paper investigates how human capital concentration in cities is associated with working hours across different worker groups, an important but understudied dimension of urban agglomeration effects. Using microdata from the American Community …

Comparing real-time uncertainty of the Hodrick-Prescott and Hamilton trend/cycle decompositions

  • Original Paper

Methods for decomposing aggregate time series into trend and cycle components are frequently used in macroeconomics. When choosing which method to employ for this purpose, revision properties are often considered. In this article, the trend/cycle …

Nowcasting and short-term forecasting of G-20 countries GDP with endogenous regime-switching MIDAS models

The paper investigates the application of endogenous Markov-switching MIDAS models for nowcasting and forecasting during the turbulent economic landscape shaped by the COVID-19 crisis. I extend the standard MS MIDAS model to incorporate …

Opportunity cost and employment effect of targeted emission reduction: an inter-industry comparison across countries

All nations stand to benefit from addressing the problem of global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions. However, the economic impact of pollution reduction in the form of a reduction in industry output and jobs lost will be different for …

Gaining confidence in the revised consumer confidence indicator: nonlinear optimization approach

This study aims to methodologically improve the European consumer confidence indicator (CCI), one of the most closely observed economic indicators. Our models utilize nonlinear optimization targeting to maximize the number of correctly predicted …

Estimating Income Inequality Using Single-Parameter Lorenz Curves: A New Proposal

  • Open Access

In a recent paper, Paul and Shankar (2020) introduced a single-parameter Lorenz curve that provides an improved fit compared to many existing uniparametric models. This paper explores new properties of their model, offering a refined …

Armed conflict and unemployment in Colombia: the role of US drug interdiction policy

We exploit the exogenous variation arising from the drug interdiction policy of the USA in the 1990s to estimate the impact of high-intensity conflict on unemployment in Colombia. Using the synthetic control method, we find that between 1994 and …

Climate change and monetary policy: a Bayesian DSGE perspective

  • Open Access

This study utilizes a Bayesian DSGE model, which includes a mechanism for endogenous productivity, calibrated with Australian data, to assess the impact of monetary policy on CO2 emissions. A 1% cyclical deviation in GDP is associated with a 0.5% …

State-owned enterprises fail to drive regional technological diversification: evidence from China

This study empirically analyzes the impact of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on the emergence of new technologies in a panel of Chinese prefectures. We trace the technological diversification path of regions using patent data and find that regions …