Judgments and Decisions by Expert Fund Managers

This chapter explores how expert fund managers exercise judgment and make decisions, that is, the decision-making process. The study draws on explorative interviews with fund managers and other actors in the fund industry together with insights from previous studies on the decision-making processes of financial experts. The findings identify three areas. First, they indicate that intuition and heuristics are vital in expert fund managers’ judgments and decisions, and hence that fund managers’ decision-making consists of qualitative and quantitative assessments using intuition and analysis. This contrasts with a view of decision-making using sophisticated models for optimal asset allocation and detailed valuations of companies, and where the use of intuition and heuristics leads to erroneous decisions. Second, the study indicates a salient role of investment strategy for communicating with investors and highlights the high uncertainty of the environment in which fund managers’ decision-making is taking place. Third, the study consequently suggests that the environment is prone to emotions and therefore that strategies for managing these are essential for effective decision-making. This also pertains to the ability to be decisive in spite of a sense of high uncertainty, to avoid decision paralysis for fear of making the wrong decision.