KIC RawMaterials: Iron Balance—Austria

A comprehensive survey of the project is presented in Fig. 1. For the complex system, comprehensive information, such as production data from the industry, consumption, population and information from the trade (import and export) of semi-finished products, goods and scrap, were required [2‐5]. Derived from these data, a visualization of the mass flow of iron and steel of Austria with all correlations was possible [1].

Main results from the project included a visualization of the iron flow during steel production from the major Austrian steel producers and the demand for raw material (mostly involving iron ore) from the global market. Secondly, an evaluation of the iron-stock in Austria was carried out to see the specific consumption of iron in different consumer areas. This is illustrated as a simplification in Fig. 2, whereby the different consumer areas are summarized in the block products (blue circled). As a result of the collected data, it was possible to show that the scrap production of the Austrian population was about 1.7 million tons of scrap, which is 210 kg of iron scrap per capita. However, the requirement of scrap for the industry is about 2.1 million tons, which is 260 kg per capita. This gap between the incoming and outgoing scrap flow has to be closed by purchasing scrap from other countries.

Firstly, all publications and economic statistics of Austria were analyzed in order to collect enough data to identify the essential correlations between the production, demand and qualities. An analysis of the past was necessary for predictions of the future scrap market. The correlations of the past provided the basis of the dynamic model. One of these correlations is shown in Fig. 3, which presents the steel production and the scrap demand of Austria’s industry in the last three decades. From 1986 to 2015, the total steel production increased from 4.29 to 7.69 million tons, which represents an increase of about 80%. In comparison, the scrap demand raised from 1.47 to 2.69 million tons, which means a gain of around 84%. The conclusion that steel production and scrap demand behave proportionally can be drawn. Additionally, the scrap demand remains at a level of about 350 kg for the production of one ton of steel. This information was important for the forecasting [3‐5].

Three difficult points existed for the dynamic model. The first point involved published data. A deviation can be seen for the life cycle of products, which leads to different scrap production per year. Moreover, data of the iron stock from Austria differed widely from the various literature sources. As an example, Pauliuk et al. quoted an iron stock per capita from more than 15 tons [6]. Compared to Warrings, who identified a value of five tons per capita, which is around three times less than Pauliuk et al. [2, 6‐13].

The second difficult point was that the scrap qualities of each product accruing every year are relatively inaccurate. Due to the lack of information about the exact qualities, a simple mathematical approximation was set up to integrate the unknown qualities into the dynamic model. This approximation was based on the home scrap production from the static model and the data of scrap import. The amount of the imported scrap was assumed as the part of scrap which was not accrued from Austria with the appropriate quality. The difference of the scrap production and the scrap import, divided by the scrap production, was the simplified approximation of the scrap quality.

The third point was the illegal trade of scrap, which is, in fact, a problem for the whole scrap industry in Austria. It is assumed that 65,000 to 155,000 cars disappear illegally out of Austria, which represents about 60,000 to 150,000 tons of iron scrap [14, 15]. All these inaccuracies have an influence on the accuracy of the system.

Hereafter, two scenarios from the dynamic model are discussed. Both graphics have the same structure and show the scrap demand in comparison with the scrap production. Both are based on an average life cycle of the products of 26 years. To integrate the influence of the difficulties, three additional trends are illustrated in the two graphs, Fig. 4 and 5. These trends are named 90, 80 and 70, which represent the amount of scrap by means of only 90, 80, or 70% of the scrap production. Therefore, these trends are flatter than the scrap production. Fig. 4 presents the total amount of scrap production, regardless of scrap qualities and assuming that the steel production remains relatively constant. It is clear that within the next 10 to 20 years, Austria should produce enough scrap to supply the steel industry by itself. By considering the qualities of the different scrap types, only a part is usable for the industry. As previously mentioned in Sect. 3.2, the consideration of the qualities was done by an approximation. This influence of the varying scrap qualities is illustrated in Fig. 5. According to this influence, Austria will not be able to supply its own steel industry at any time with enough usable scrap accruing from the iron stock.