Top

The Annals of Regional Science

Published in:

16-06-2022 | Original Paper

Land value dynamics and the spatial evolution of cities following COVID 19 using big data analytics

Authors: Erez Buda, Dani Broitman, Daniel Czamanski

Published in: The Annals of Regional Science | Issue 2/2023

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config

AI-assisted search

Off

Abstract

In this paper, we present results of a land-use forecasting model that we calibrated with vast geo-referenced data of a major metropolitan area. Each land parcel includes information concerning regulations indicating permitted land-uses as well as the certain characteristics of existing buildings. Data concerning all real estate transactions include information about the assets and the price of the exchanges. Based on these data we estimated the spatial dynamics of land values in the metropolitan area over time and identified locations experiencing development pressures. This analysis allows us to forecast plausible futures of the urban spatial configuration. Taking the approach one step further, we propose simulations motivated by the natural experiment of COVID 19. We assumed that part of the behavioral changes observed during the pandemic will endure. The resulting simulations provide forecasts of the future spatial structure of the metropolitan area. Comparing the actual and the forecasted scenarios we interpret the spatial dynamics of the city as they would be if a business-as-usual-pre-Covid-19 scenario is realized, and possible trend changes if the impact of the pandemic is long lasting.

previous article Firm growth in the Portuguese footwear industry: the location dilemma

next article An aggregate approach to estimating quality of life in micropolitan areas

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now

According to the OECD capacity for remote working can be above 50 per cent of the workforce and can affect lockdown cost differently across places. For example, this is the case in greater London and Washington D.C. Paris: OECD (2020). https://bit.ly/3fgJRkF.

Acuto M (2020) COVID-19: lessons for an urban (izing) world. One Earth 2(4):317–319CrossRef

Behrens K, Kichko S, Thisse JF (2021) Working from home: Too much of a good thing? NBER

Benguigui L, Czamanski D (2004) Simulation analysis of the fractality of cities. Geogr Anal 36(1):69–84CrossRef

Benguigui L, Czamanski D, Marinov M, Portugali Y (2000) When and where is a city fractal? Environ Plann B Plann Des 27(4):507–519CrossRef

Benguigui L, Czamanski D, Marinov M (2001a) City growth as a leap-frogging process: an application to the Tel-Aviv metropolis. Urban Stud 38(10):1819–1839CrossRef

Benguigui L, Czamanski D, Marinov M (2001b) The dynamics of urban morphology: the case of Petah Tikvah. Environ Plann B Plann Des 28(3):447–460CrossRef

Benguigui L, Czamanski D, Marinov M (2004) Scaling and urban growth. Int J Mod Phys C 15(07):989–996CrossRef

Broitman D, Czamanski D (2012a) Cities in competition, characteristic time, and leapfrogging developers. Environ Plann B Plann Des 39(6):1105–1118CrossRef

Broitman D, Czamanski D (2015) Bursts and avalanches: the dynamics of polycentric urban evolution. Environ Plann B Plann Des 42(1):58–75CrossRef

Broitman D, Benenson I, Czamanski D (2020) The impact of migration and innovations on the life cycles and size distribution of cities. Int Reg Sci Rev 43(5):531–549CrossRef

Broitman D, Czamanski D (2012b). Polycentric urban dynamics--Heterogeneous developers under certain planning restrictions. J Urban Reg Inf Syst Assoc, 24(1)

Broitman, Czamanski D (2020) Endogenous growth in a spatial economy: the impact of globalization on innovations and convergence. Int Reg Sci Rev, 0160017620946095

Carlos HA, Shi X, Sargent J, Tanski S, Berke EM (2010) Density estimation and adaptive bandwidths: a primer for public health practitioners. Int J Health Geogr 9(1):1–8CrossRef

Chorafakis G (2020) Emergence versus neoclassical reductions in economics. J Econ Methodol 27(3):240–262CrossRef

Connolly C, Ali SH, Keil R (2020) On the relationships between COVID-19 and extended urbanization. Dialog Human Geogr 10(2):213–216CrossRef

Czamanski D, Broitman D (2012) Developers’ choices under varying characteristic time and competition among municipalities. Ann Reg Sci 49(3):733–743CrossRef

Czamanski D, Broitman D (2017) Information and communication technology and the spatial evolution of mature cities. Socioecon Plann Sci 58:30–38CrossRef

Czamanski D, Broitman D (2018) The life cycle of cities. Habitat Int 72:100–108CrossRef

Davis MA, Larson WD, Oliner SD, Shui J (2021) The price of residential land for counties, ZIP codes, and census tracts in the United States. J Monet Econ 118:413–431CrossRef

Duque JC, Lozano-Gracia N, Patino JE, Restrepo P, Velasquez WA (2019) Spatiotemporal dynamics of urban growth in Latin American cities: an analysis using nighttime light imagery. Landsc Urban Plan 191:103640CrossRef

Gatrell AC, Bailey TC, Diggle PJ, Rowlingson BS (1996) Spatial point pattern analysis and its application in geographical epidemiology. Trans Inst Br Geogr 21:256–274CrossRef

Glumac B, Herrera-Gomez M, Licheron J (2019) A hedonic urban land price index. Land Use Policy 81:802–812CrossRef

Mahtta R, Mahendra A, Seto KC (2019) Building up or spreading out? Typologies of urban growth across 478 cities of 1 million+. Environ Res Lett 14(12):124077CrossRef

OECD (2015) Eurostat-OECD compilation guide on land estimation. Publications Office of the European Union, LuxembourgCrossRef

OECD (2020) Capacity for remote working can affect lockdown costs differently across places. https://bit.ly/3fgJRkF

Rosser JB Jr (2014) The foundations of economic complexity in behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations. J Econ Methodol 21(3):308–312CrossRef

Title: Land value dynamics and the spatial evolution of cities following COVID 19 using big data analytics
Authors: Erez Buda
Dani Broitman
Daniel Czamanski
Publication date: 16-06-2022
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Published in: The Annals of Regional Science / Issue 2/2023
Print ISSN: 0570-1864
Electronic ISSN: 1432-0592
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-022-01153-7

Decomposing local bank impacts with demand thresholds

Original Paper

Air pollution and perception-based averting behaviour in the Jinchuan mining area, China

Original Paper

Rural–urban migrants’ remittance and agricultural pollution in the presence of agricultural dualism

Original Paper

Regional income convergence in Colombia: population, space, and long-run dynamics

Open Access
Original Paper

An aggregate approach to estimating quality of life in micropolitan areas

Open Access
Original Paper

Dynamics of collaboration among high-growth firms: results from an agent-based policy simulation

Open Access
Original Paper