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24-09-2024

Lessons Learned From the 2018 Attica Wildfire: Households’ Expectations of Evacuation Logistics and Evacuation Time Estimate Components

Authors: M. R. K. Siam, Brian M. Staes, Michael K. Lindell, Haizhong Wang

Published in: Fire Technology

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Abstract

Despite the increase in frequency and intensity of wildfires around the world, little research has examined households’ expectations of evacuation logistics and evacuation time estimate (ETE) components during such rapid-onset disasters. To address this gap, this study analyzes data from 152 household responses affected by the devastating 2018 wildfire in Mati, Greece where the second-deadliest wildfire of the 21st century took place. The questionnaire measured residents’ expectations of how they would respond to a future wildfire. This includes the number of vehicles they would take, their evacuation destination and route choices, and their expected evacuation preparation and travel times. Explanatory variables include risk perceptions, wildfire preparedness, wildfire experience, and demographic characteristics. The univariate results reveal some similarities to, but also some differences from, expected evacuation logistics and ETE components in other natural hazards. Moreover, correlation and regression analyses show that expected evacuation logistics and ETE components are primarily related to wildfire preparedness actions. Comparison of this study’s results with other rapid onset events such as tsunamis and hazardous material incidents, as well as longer onset events such as hurricanes, sheds light on household responses to wildfires. Emergency managers can use the similarities in results across studies to better prepare for wildfire evacuations.

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Footnotes
1
Evacuation clearance time, the time required for a household to reach its evacuation destination, is the same as its Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE).
 
2
Binary logistic regression analysis was applied to identify the significant predictors for the expected number of cars to be taken in evacuation, planned evacuation destination, and planned evacuation route (RQ2–RQ3 in Table 1). The utility function Y for these three variables consist of systematic terms (\(\beta Y_{\delta h}\)) and a random term (\(\xi _{\delta h}\)). The vector Y in each of these functions represents household characteristics that influence their choices about evacuation logistics (\(\delta \)) for that household (h). The error term (\(\xi \)) corresponds to the unobserved disturbances. The base outcomes for the three dependent variables are residents who planned to take one vehicle, or who have planned an evacuation destination or an evacuation route for a future wildfire.
 
3
A fixed-parameter ordered probit model was used to analyze household ETE time components (5 min or less, 5 min to 10 min, 10 min to 15 min, 15 min to 30 min, and more than 30 min) because, unlike ordinary least squares regression that assumes equal intervals, the ordered probit model can account for unequal differences among the categories in the dependent variable [30]. The relationship between a dependent variable (i.e., preparation time or evacuation travel time) and its explanatory variables (i.e., respondent characteristics) is \(Y_{\varphi } = \beta _{\varphi } X_{\varphi } + \xi _{\varphi }\), where \(Y_{\varphi }\) denotes the dependent variable coded as 0, 1, 2, 3, 4; \(\beta _{\varphi }\) is the vector of regression coefficients; \(X_{\varphi }\) is the vector of explanatory variables; \(\xi _{\varphi }\) is a normally distributed (zero mean and unit variance) error term. For a specific preparation time, a respondent can be associated with category n if \(\mu _{n-1}< y < \mu _n\).
 
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Metadata
Title
Lessons Learned From the 2018 Attica Wildfire: Households’ Expectations of Evacuation Logistics and Evacuation Time Estimate Components
Authors
M. R. K. Siam
Brian M. Staes
Michael K. Lindell
Haizhong Wang
Publication date
24-09-2024
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
Fire Technology
Print ISSN: 0015-2684
Electronic ISSN: 1572-8099
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-024-01640-7