6. Long COVID and the New Middle East

The chapter 'Long COVID and the New Middle East' delves into the profound and lasting impacts of COVID-19 on the Middle East, focusing on security dynamics, power balances, and alliances. It begins by defining the Middle East as an umbrella term for three subregions: North Africa, the Levant/East Mediterranean, and the Arabian Peninsula/Gulf. The chapter then examines how the pandemic has exposed extreme variances in national cohesion and economic stamina among Middle Eastern states, cementing some security trends while accelerating transitions in power balances and alliances. The analysis covers the roles of exogenous powers such as the US, Russia, the EU27, the UK, and China, and how their behaviors have been altered by COVID-19. Notably, the chapter highlights the formation of new alliances and alliance clusters, such as the Cyprus–Greece–Israel and Bahrain–Egypt–Saudi Arabia–UAE alliances, which have been strengthened by the pandemic. The text also anticipates future trends and scenarios, emphasizing the importance of preparation and adaptation in the face of ongoing uncertainty. The chapter concludes with a reflection on the potential for a more stabilized Middle East, highlighting the need for guarded optimism in the post-COVID era.