Mineral Exploration and the Discovery of New Deposits: A Quantitative Analysis of Gold and Copper Discoveries

This chapter delves into the critical factors influencing the success of mineral exploration for copper and gold, emphasizing the pivotal role of exploration budgets. The analysis is based on a extensive database of major discoveries from 1997 to 2022, providing a robust empirical foundation. Key findings include the significant impact of exploration budgets on the number and quality of discoveries, while institutional quality, measured by the Rule of Law index, shows limited direct influence. The study also reveals a concerning trend of rising discovery costs, indicating potential overestimation of success probabilities by exploration firms. Additionally, the analysis underscores the long-term nature of price signals in driving exploration activities, with significant effects materializing over extended time lags. The chapter concludes by highlighting the need for improved assessment of exploration strategies to enhance efficiency and economic viability, suggesting that international cooperation is essential for long-term sustainability in mineral supply chains.