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2023 | Book

Modeling and Simulation of Social-Behavioral Phenomena in Creative Societies

Second International Conference, MSBC 2022, Vilnius, Lithuania, September 21–23, 2022, Proceedings

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About this book

This book constitutes the joint refereed proceedings of the Second International Conference on Modeling and Simulation of Social-Behavioral Phenomena in Creative Societies, MSBC 2022, held in Vilnius, Lithuania, in September 2022.
The 14 full papers and 1 short paper presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 35 submissions. The papers are organized in the following topical sections: simulation of behavioral processes; modeling of sustainability; and data science and modeling.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter

Simulation of Behavioral Processes

Frontmatter
Studying Simulated Mobs Using Monte Carlo Method and the Theory of Collective Action
Abstract
A mob is an event that is organized via social media, email, SMS, or other forms of digital communication technologies in which a group of people (who might have an agenda) get together online or offline to collectively conduct an act and then disperse (quickly or over a long period). These events are increasingly happening around the world in recent years due to the anonymity of the internet, affordability of social media, boredom, etc. Studying such a phenomenon is not an easy task due to a lack of data, theoretical underpinning, and resources. In this research, we use Monte Carlo Experiments and our previous research on Deviant Cyber Flash Mobs that leveraged the theory of Collective Action to implement a model that can simulate a mob, estimate its success rate, and the needed powerful actors (e.g., mob organizers) to succeed. This research is one step toward fully understanding mob formation and the motivations of its participants and organizers.
Samer Al-khateeb, Nitin Agarwal
Dynamic Approach to Modeling Hierarchical Conflict Situations in Small Groups
Abstract
The paper deals with a dynamic approach to modeling some social conflicts using differential equations. The presence of conflicts in society at different levels has both negative and positive aspects. The negative ones include financial, material, psychological and other losses, up to the loss of participants’ lives. However, there is also a certain positive moment - the conflict, like any movement in society, contributes to its development and exit from the state of stagnation.
The dynamic approach proposed by the authors finds application not in global and mass conflicts, but in the interaction of small groups of participants. This model has certain limitations, but its application in some cases allows obtaining results confirming its adequacy.
In this paper a dynamic model (linear and non-linear) is used to study the superior-subordinate (boss-subordinates) conflict. The results obtained allow us to formulate the conditions that the exhaustion of the resources of one of the parties, leading to the end of the confrontation between the participants (players in terms of game theory).
The nonlinear dynamic model leads to interesting results - the independence of the solution from the initial conditions. The solution is determined only by the ratio of the model parameters. The paper analyzes marginal outcomes and their impact on conflict resolution. Conditions are formulated under which the end of the conflict means the complete disappearance of the initiative of workers.
Ludmila Borisova, Mira Fridman
A Cognitive Simulation Model of a Regional Higher Education System
Abstract
We propose and investigate a difference Stackelberg game with sustainable development requirements based on a cognitive model of a regional higher education system. In this model, the federal administration acts as the Leader, whereas higher education institutions (HEIs) act as Followers. The model is identified on an example of the Rostov region of the Russian Federation. The results of computer simulation with some analytical solution elements are presented. The influence of sustainable development conditions on the choice of control strategies is described. Several recommendations for the upper-level control subject and HEIs are formulated.
Olga Gorbaneva, Anton Murzin, Guennady Ougolnitsky, Stanislav Mikhalkovich
Behavioral Model of Interaction Between Economic Agents and the Institutional Environment
Abstract
This article creates and analyzes an agent-based simulation model that reflects the interaction between economic agents and the institutional environment surrounding them. Special attention is paid to changing the agents’ mentality under the influence of the institutional structure of society and the transformation of the institutional environment under the influence of agents’ mental values. Computational experiments are carried out with the model, and the possibilities of achieving equilibrium by the system are calculated depending on the minimum labor productivity in society. An equilibrium state of the system is one in which the agents’ mentality and public institutions are in harmony and do not contradict each other. It has been revealed that agents’ mentality significantly influences their attitude to public institutions and their behavior in situations of economic choice. It has been established that the higher the labor productivity of agents and the more developed and prosperous the society is, the faster the system goes into harmony.
George Kleiner, Maxim Rybachuk, Dmitry Ushakov
Attitudes to Vaccination: How the Opinion Dynamics Affects the Influenza Epidemic Process
Abstract
A hypothesis about the influence of the opinion dynamics on the subsequent epidemic process is considered. The existence of relation between the population’s attitude to vaccination and the dynamics of the influenza epidemic is assumed. Emphasis is placed on the spectrum of opinions of the population: from extremely negative to super-positive. Along with persons who are firmly confident in their point of view and propagandize it, there are doubting agents who make their choice to vaccinate or not under the influence of others’ opinions. Their decisions have an impact on the formation of their personal immunity and of the collective immunity of entire population. Opinion dynamics is assumed to be completed before the seasonal influenza rising incidence starts, and each individuum has decided to vaccinate or not until this moment.
The purpose of this study is to identify the relationship between the parameters that characterize the opinions’ influence in the population and the number of people who have been infected (vaccinated and unvaccinated) at the beginning of influenza epidemic.
Simulation modeling of the dynamics of opinions is carried out using a network model for graphs of various configuration (grid, strongly connected graph, weakly connected graph). Modeling is carried out in a closed population using statistical data on morbidity and annual vaccination campaigns in Russia. The epidemic (SIR) process is represented by modification of the classical Kermack-McKendrick model (1927). A series of repeated simulations was carried out, a numerical experiment based on statistical data and scenario analysis were performed.
Suriya Kumacheva, Ekaterina Zhitkova, Galina Tomilina
Free-Rider Problem: Simulating of System Convergence to Stable Equilibrium State by Means of Finite Markov Chain Models
Abstract
The paper suggests a new approach to classic economic problem – “the problem of free-rider”. This well – known problem deals with a process of unrequited consumption of collective goods, and it can be considered as a problem of unfailing interest for economy of each frame of a society. The authors put forward and idea of spontaneous process self-regulation by means of economic instruments and give a description of possible problem solution. The approach suggested includes the control of “free-rider” activity by economic and social agents directly interacting with him. In spite of non-rivalry in consumption, the case when “free-rider” disserves the interests of his nearest surrounding, will results in increasing antagonism and suppression of “free-rider” activity spreading. A mathematical model reflecting authors view is based on Markov chains with absorbing states, created on the base of graph depicting an interaction of “free-rider” with his neighborhood. The simulation represents system convergence from arbitrary initial state to a stable final distribution for Markov chain, demonstrating an opportunity of system self-adjustment.
Olga Pyrkina, Andrey Yudanov

Modeling of Sustainability

Frontmatter
Econometric Modeling of Adaptation of the Russian Economy to Western Countries’ Sanctions
Abstract
The econometric modeling of the adaptation of the Russian economy to the sanctions of Western countries is being discussed. The exponential adaptation model adopted in this article is an integral part of the production function of the Russian economy constructed here. At the last stage of the production function construction scheme (the post-factum forecasting stage), the production function of the Russian economy with the adaptation model used in it showed high accuracy of forecasting real GDP. This circumstance made it possible to interpret the model of adaptation of the Russian economy to the sanctions of Western countries as adequate. The impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy is decreasing by about 25% every year.
Viktor Byvshev
Improved Free Disposal Hull Methodology for China Provinces Effective Social-Economic Development Modeling
Abstract
One of the key trends in sustainable development is to ensure integrated regions’ social development. Strengthening the “social” part of sustainable development leads to new ways of improving people’s quality of life. Mathematical modelling is one of the tools needed to transform the region’s economy from developing to developed state. A model may help explain a system, study the effects of different components, and make predictions about behaviour. This study critically examines the shortcomings and limitations of the existing VRS model to assess social efficiency in China provinces. The authors analyzed China provinces social effectiveness data to test the Data Envelope Analysis (DEA) obtained models. Social and economic data was used from China Year Statistical Books from 1997 to 2021. The total expenditures on health care and education were taken as input variables, and the Atkinson Index, the number of unemployed people and GDP were taken as output variables. Based on improved DEA models, target indicators of output social parameters were determined. The analysis of the obtained results suggests that using the proposed models would allow determining the directions of China provinces’ effective multifactorial development.
Artem Denisov, Wang Qian, Elizaveta Steblianskaia
Dynamics of the Long-Term Orientation in Russian Society Over the Past 100 years: Results of the Analysis of the Russian Subcorpus of Google Books Ngram
Abstract
Methods of computational linguistics were used to study orientation towards long-term future as one of the characteristics of psychological state of society. Analysis of the dynamics of the use of nouns and verbs, which are semantic markers of long-term orientation, in Russian-language texts of the 20th-21st centuries was carried out. The analysis was performed employing the third version of the Russian subcorpus of Google Books Ngram presented in 2020. To identify the main trends in frequency of use of the corresponding phrases, methods of cluster analysis were employed. Our analysis shows that since the mid-1970s, the frequency of the nouns “planning”, “plan”, “forecasting” and “forecast” in combination with the adjective “long-term” has decreased. The frequency of use of verbs with the semantics of long-term planning had decreased from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s, and then grew until 2018. Apparently, the revealed dynamics reflects the crisis of the planned economy, which led to the abandonment of long-term indicative planning. In addition, we have shown that since the 1960s, the frequency of use of verbs with the semantics of forecasting has been increasing, and the frequency of those with the semantics of hope, goal-setting and achievements has been decreasing. Positive correlation of linguistic markers of forecasting with the growth of the urban population, growth of per capita gross national income and overall life expectancy has been revealed. Prospects for further research in this area are outlined.
Timofei Nestik, Vladimir Bochkarev, Vera Levina
Sustainable Development Issues of the Belt and Road Initiative in Educational Modeling Cases
Abstract
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a massive development plan in scale and scope. It aims at facilitating China’s connectivity with the rest of the world through trade, investment, and infrastructure projects. Therefore, understanding the human and social dynamics and socio-behavioral tendencies through Belt and Road development, and quantifying, and mapping the spatial-temporal distribution of environmental vulnerability caused by natural and human-made impacts are needed for understanding environmental protection and Road restoration issues. Understanding the trends in ecological, cultural and behavioral evolution and their driving factors is critical to revealing changes in ecosystem’s structure and function. However, less is known about the nonlinear relationship between greening trends and statistical instrumentation. Thus, we want to share HEU experience concerning new Business Statistics cause implementation. In the example of a practical case concerning Belt and Road initiative development, the authors show for students sampling distribution and sampling modeling processes, and understand their implementations. On the example of Belt and Road case, the students learn sampling to collect data and the theorems of sampling distribution.
Alina Steblyanskaya, Zhinan Wang
Carbon Dioxide Emissions Modelling Along the Route Using Various Transportation Modes
Abstract
Growth trends in global demand for passenger and freight transportation will lead to the growth of the transport sector of the economy by 2050 more than double. Such growth is a sign of social and economic progress, the inevitable concomitant of which is increased energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and air pollution. In this regard, the economic assessment of the environmental component of the transportation industry becomes relevant. In the paper the authors consider a transport route as an example of the green route formation. The primary criterion is to minimize the carbon footprint when delivering goods from the starting point of Krasnoyarsk to the station Hani. To select a transportation option based on the volume of emissions, the authors calculated options for all route sections, which can be structured according to the“data cube”methodology. The calculations show that a complete railway route is preferable to transportation by road, because the volume of emissions of 1.87 tons is almost 500 times less than by road transport. Nevertheless, it is necessary to consider a more significant number of parameters for a more accurate comparison of the efficiency of transportation routes.
Maksim Vasiev, Olga Efimova, Evgeniy Baboshin, Irina Matveeva, Olga Malysheva

Data Science and Modeling

Frontmatter
Research on the Prediction of Highly Cited Papers Based on PCA-BPNN
Abstract
With the increase in scientific research investment, the number of papers has increased significantly, and the evaluation of the impact of papers has received extensive attention from scholars. The citation frequency is the most convenient and widely used index to measure the academic influence of papers. Still, the citation frequency can only measure the real impact of papers some period of time after those have been published. Therefore, to be able to identify highly cited papers at the early stage of publication, this paper collects data on 1025 academic papers published under the library and information discipline of the Web of Science library in 2007 and then extracts 24 predictive characteristics from three aspects: papers, authors, and journals. On this basis, 7 principal component vectors are constructed by feature screening based on PCA. Also, combined with the BP neural network model, the PCA-BPNN highly-cited paper classification prediction model is constructed and finally compared with the other 5 models. The results show that the PCA-BPNN model built in this paper has better prediction performance and provides an effective model for the prediction of paper influence.
Tian Yu, Changxu Duan
Logical Dimension in Modeling
Abstract
The paper analyzes the proof of equivalence of the efficient market hypothesis and the hypothesis P = NP. The basis of this proof is enabling behavioral characteristics of the decision-making agent into the financial market model and, accordingly, characteristics of the observer into the computing model. Economic models, in which the market is efficient, are based on the same simplifying assumptions about the agent as the assumptions that make it possible to justify the hypothesis P = NP. A similar methodological approach makes it possible to show the incompatibility of Minsky’s hypothesis of financial instability with the hypothesis of an efficient market. A key element in the analysis of all three hypotheses is the ability of a person to generate solutions that go beyond the framework of the system in which he is initially immersed. In the context of our analysis, an important aspect is applying non-classical logic. An additional justification for this statement provides the analysis of Arrow's impossibility theorem and FLP's impossibility theorem.
Gisin Vladimir
Quantification of Textual Responses To Open-Ended Questions In Big Data
Abstract
The article summarizes many years of methodological experience with large-scale quantitative surveys to measure satisfaction with public services. Methodological advantages of extremely short questionnaires based on open-ended questions over long inventory-type questionnaires are pointed out. At the same time, the irrationally high costs of coding text responses are emphasized. The corresponding function/operation cannot be completely delegated to the computer. The possibility of triangulating inductive and hypothetical deductive approaches in coding is shown. Based on the Laplace-Moivre and central limit theorems, normality of empirical distributions can be postulated for dichotomous/binary variables, with all the resulting favorable consequences for the statistical analysis process. Digital information generated from qualitative textual information through interpretation and coding requires specific statistical analysis approaches. There is a lack of discourse on this topic in the methodological literature.
Gediminas Merkys, Daiva Bubeliene
Optimization of Works Management of the Investment Project
Abstract
The article focuses on optimizing project management with varying durations of work. A deterministic model of scheduling theory is considered, which involves the use of non-storable resources, taking into account the matrix setting of the execution time of operations by performers. The branches and bounds method for obtaining the optimal solution is proposed. A two-criteria model for evaluating the effectiveness of the schedule for random durations of works is considered.
Alexandr Mishchenko, Oleg Kosorukov, Olga Sviridova
Backmatter
Metadata
Title
Modeling and Simulation of Social-Behavioral Phenomena in Creative Societies
Editors
Nitin Agarwal
George B. Kleiner
Leonidas Sakalauskas
Copyright Year
2023
Electronic ISBN
978-3-031-33728-4
Print ISBN
978-3-031-33727-7
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-33728-4

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