Skip to main content
Disciplines
Automotive Business IT + Informatics Construction + Real Estate Electrical Engineering + Electronics Energy + Sustainability Insurance + Risk Finance + Banking Management + Leadership Marketing + Sales Mechanical Engineering + Materials
Events
DE
EN
Books
Journals
Topic Page
Marketing
Start single access now
Access for companies
EXTENDED SEARCH
Log in
Top
Published in:
Cover of the book

2011 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

1. Modeling Conflicts Between States: New Developments for an Old Problem

Authors : Tshilidzi Marwala, Dr. Monica Lagazio

Published in: Militarized Conflict Modeling Using Computational Intelligence

Publisher: Springer London

Log in

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

This chapter reviews the evolution of academic research on interstate conflicts. In particular, the emphasis is on the methodological development that has happened through the analysis of interstate conflicts as a scientific phenomenon in the political science discipline. Key empirical findings and theoretical contributions that this change has produced are also emphasized. In addition, the chapter makes the case for the use of computational intelligence for modeling conflicts as a way to overcome some limitations of previous work and unpacks the complexity that is inherent in dispute behavior. The data set used for the analysis in this book is also explained in detail.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now
next chapter Automatic Relevance Determination for Identifying Interstate Conflict
Footnotes
1
It is important to notice that all these studies were conducted at the national rather than the dyadic level.
 
2
The dyadic hypothesis states that although democracies are not generally less war-prone than non-democracies, they rarely fight each other.
 
3
Some of the studies, which focus on economic interdependence, have argued that asymmetric interdependence increases the probability of conflicts. However, there has been little empirical support for the asymmetrical interdependence argument and more empirical evidence are pointing towards a benefit impact of asymmetrical trade (Gasiorowski and Polachek 1982; Oneal et al. 1996).
 
4
A recent exception to the complexity approach is Ray’s work (2003, 2005), which questions customary procedures for the quantitative analysis of theoretically complex questions in the social sciences. He argues that too many independent variables create unstable models and proposes that researchers should follow Achen’s (2002) rule of three − i.e., no more than three independent variables. De Marchi et al. (2004) also find little support for complexity in their analysis. This has been rebutted by Beck et al. (2004).
 
5
Data have been provided by John Oneal and are posted at http://​www.​bama.​ua.​edu/​~joneal/​CMPS2005.
 
Literature
Achen, C.: Toward a new political methodology: microfoundations and ART. Ann. Rev. Polit. Sci. 5, 423–450 (2002)CrossRef
Babst, D.: A force for peace. Ind. Res. 14, 55 (1972)
Barbieri, K.: Economic interdependence: a path to peace or a source of interstate conflicts? J. Peace Res. 33, 29–50 (1996)CrossRef
Barbieri, K., Peters, R.A.: Measure for mis-measure: a response to Gartzke and Li. J. Peace Res. 40, 713–720 (2003)CrossRef
Beck, N., Katz, J.: Throwing the baby out with the bathwater: a comment on Green, Kim, and Yoon. Int. Organ. 55, 487–495 (2001)CrossRef
Beck, N., Katz, J., Tucker, R.: Taking time seriously in binary time-series-cross-section analysis. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 42, 1260–1288 (1998)CrossRef
Beck, N., King, G., Zheng, L.: Improving quantitative studies of international conflict: a conjecture. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 94, 21–35 (2000)CrossRef
Beck, N., King, G., Zheng, L.: Theory and evidence in international conflict: a response to de Marchi, Gelpi and Grynaviski. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 98, 379–389 (2004)CrossRef
Bennett, D.S., Stam, A.C.: Research design and estimator choices for analyzing interstate dyads: when decisions matter. J. Conflict Resolut. 44, 653–679 (2000)CrossRef
Bezdek, J.C.: What Is Computational Intelligence? Computational Intelligence Imitating Life. IEEE Press, New York (1994)
Boehmer, C., Gartzke, E., Nordstrom, T.: Do intergovernmental organizations promote peace? World Polit. 57, 1–38 (2004)CrossRef
Bremer, S.A.: Dangerous dyads: conditions affecting the likelihood of interstate war. J. Conflict Res. 36, 309–341 (1992)CrossRef
Bueno de Mesquita, B., Lalman, D.: War and Reason: Domestic and International Imperatives. Yale University Press, New Haven (1992)
Bueno de Mesquita, B., Ray, J.L.: The national interest versus individual political ambition: democracy, autocracy, and the reciprocation of force and violence in militarized interstate dispute. In: Diehl, P.F. (ed.) The Scourge of War: New Extensions on an Old Problem. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor (2004)
Bueno de Mesquita, B., Siverson, R.: War and the survival of political leaders: a comparative study of regime types and political accountability. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 89, 841–855 (1995)CrossRef
Chernoff, F.: The study of democratic peace and progress in international relations. Int. Stud. Perspect. 6, 49–77 (2004)
Coppola Jr., E., Szidarovszky, F.: Conflict between water supply and environmental health risk: a computational neural network approach. Int. Game Theory Rev. 6, 475–492 (2004)MathSciNetMATHCrossRef
Craenen, B., Eiben, A.: Computational Intelligence. Encyclopedia of Life Support Sciences. EOLSS Co. Ltd., Oxford (2002)
De Marchi, S., Gelpi, C.F., Grynaviski, J.D.: Untangling neural nets. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 98, 371–378 (2004)
de Vries, M.: Interdependence, co-operation and conflict: an empirical analysis. J. Peace Res. 27, 429–444 (1990)CrossRef
Deutsch, K., Singer, J.D.: Multipolar power systems and international stability. World Polit. 16, 390–406 (1964)CrossRef
Dixon, W.: Democracy and the management of international conflict. J. Conflict Resolut. 37, 42–68 (1993)CrossRef
Domke, W.: War and the Changing Global System. Yale University Press, New Haven (1988)
Doyle, M.: Kant, liberal legacies, and foreign policy: part 1. Philos. Public Aff. 12, 205–235 (1983)
Doyle, M.: Liberalism and world politics. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 80, 1151–1169 (1986)CrossRef
Duch, W.: What is computational intelligence and where is it going? In: Duch, W., Mańdziuk, J. (eds.) Challenges for Computational Intelligence. Springer, Berlin (2007)CrossRef
Eberhart, R., Shi, Y.: Computational Intelligence: Concepts to Implementations. Morgan Kaufmann, Burlington (2007)MATH
Ember, C., Melvin, E., Bruce, R.: Peace between participatory polities: a cross-national test of the “democracies rarely fight each other” hypothesis. World Polit. 44, 573–599 (1992)CrossRef
Farber, H., Gowa, J.: Polities and peace. Int. Security. 20, 123–146 (1995)CrossRef
Gasiorowski, M., Polacheck, S.W.: Conflict and interdependence: east-west trade and linkages in the era of détente. J. Conflict Res. 26, 709–729 (1982)CrossRef
Geller, D.S., Singer, D.: Nations at War: A Scientific Study of Int Conflicts. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1998)CrossRef
Gelpi, C., Grieco, J.M.: Democracy, trade and the sources of the liberal peace. J. Peace Res. 45, 327–344 (2008)CrossRef
Gleditsch, N.P., Hegre, H.: Peace and democracy: three levels of analysis. J. Conflict Resolut. 41, 283–310 (1997)CrossRef
Goertz, G.: Contexts of International Politics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1994)CrossRef
Goetz, G., Diehl, P.: Territorial Changes and International Conflicts. Routledge, London (1992)CrossRef
Gowa, J.: Democratic states and international disputes. Int. Organ. 49, 511–522 (1995)CrossRef
Gowa, J.: Ballots and Bullets: The Elusive Democratic Peace. Princeton University Press, Princeton (1999)
Gowa, J., Mansfield, E.: Power politics and international trade. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 87, 408–420 (1993)CrossRef
Green, D., Kim, S.Y., Yoon, D.: Dirty pool. Int. Organ. 55, 441–468 (2001)CrossRef
Iswaran, N., Percy, D.F.: Conflict analysis using bayesian neural networks and generalized linear models. J. Op. Res. Soc. 61, 332–341 (2010)MATHCrossRef
Keohane, R., Nye, J.S.: Power and Interdependence. Scott, Foresman, Glenview (1989)
Kim, S.Y.: Ties that bind: The role of trade in international conflict processes, 1950–1992. Paper presented at the American Political Science Association, Boston, 3–7 Sept 1998
King, G.: Proper nouns and methodological propriety: pooling dyads in international relations data. Int. Organ. 55, 497–507 (2001)CrossRef
King, G., Keohane, R., Verba, S.: Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research. Princeton University Press, Princeton (1994)
Kocs, S.: Territorial disputes and interstate war, 1945–1987. J. Polit. 57, 159–175 (1995)CrossRef
Lagazio, M., Marwala, T.: Assessing different bayesian neural network models for militarised interstate dispute outcome and variable influence. Social Sci. Comput. Rev. 24, 119–131 (2006)CrossRef
Lagazio, M., Russett, B.: A neural network analysis of militarized international disputes, 1985–1992: temporal stability and causal complexity. In: Diehl, P.F. (ed.) The Scourge of War: New Extensions on an Old Problem. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor (2004)
Layne, C.: Kant or cant: the myth of the democratic peace. Int. Security. 19, 5–49 (1994)CrossRef
Lemke, D.: The tyranny of distance: redefining relevant dyads. Int. Interact. 21, 23–38 (1995)CrossRef
Lemke, D., Reed, W.: Regime types and status quo evaluations: power transition theory and the democratic peace. Int. Interact. 22, 143–164 (1996)CrossRef
Leng, R., Singer, J.D.: A multitheoretical typology of international behavior. In: Bunge, M., Galtun, J., Malitza, M. (eds.) Mathematical Approaches to Intl Relations. Romanian Academy of Social and Political Sciences, Bucharest (1977)
Levy, J.: Reflections on the scientific study of war. In: Vasquez, J.A. (ed.) What Do We Know About War? Rowman and Littlefield, Lanham (2000)
Mansfield, E.: Power, Trade, and War. Princeton University Press, Princeton (1994)
Maoz, Z.: Realist and cultural critiques of the democratic peace: a theoretical and empirical re-assessment. Int. Interact. 24, 1–89 (1998)
Maoz, Z., Abdolali, N.: Regime types and international conflict. J. Conflict Resolut. 33, 3–35 (1989)CrossRef
Maoz, Z., Russett, B.: Alliance, contiguity, wealth, and political stability: is the lack of conflict among democracies a statistical artifact? Int. Interact. 17, 245–268 (1992)CrossRef
Maoz, Z., Russett, B.: Normative and structural causes of democratic peace, 1946–1986. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 87, 624–638 (1993)CrossRef
Mearsheimer, J.J.: The false promise of international institutions. Int. Security. 19, 5–49 (1995)CrossRef
Morgan, C., Howard, C.S.: Domestic structure, decisional constraints, and war: so why Kant democracies fight. J. Conflict Resolut. 35, 187–211 (1991)CrossRef
Morgan, C., Schwebach, V.: Take two democracies and call me in the morning: a prescription for peace? Int. Interact. 17, 305–320 (1992)CrossRef
Mubareka, S., Ehrlich, D.: Identifying and modelling environmental indicators for assessing population vulnerability to conflict using ground and satellite data. Ecol. Indic. 10, 493–503 (2010)CrossRef
Oneal, J.R.: Confirming the liberal peace with analyses of directed dyads. In: Starr, H. (ed.) Crossing Boundaries: Internal-External Approaches, Levels and Methods of Analysis in International Politics, pp. 1885–2001. Palgrave Macmillan, New York (2006)
Oneal, J., Russett, B.: The classical liberals were right: democracy, interdependence, and conflict, 1950–1985. Int. Stud. Quart. 41, 267–294 (1997)CrossRef
Oneal, J., Russett, B.: Is the liberal peace just an artefact of cold war interests? Assessing recent critiques. Int. Interact. 25, 213–241 (1999)CrossRef
Oneal, J., Russett, B.: Clear and clean: the fixed effects of democracy and economic interdependence. Int. Organ. 52, 469–486 (2001)CrossRef
Oneal, J., Russett, B.: Rule of three, let it be? When more really is better. Conflict Manag. Peace Sci. 22, 293–310 (2005)CrossRef
Oneal, J., Russett, B.: Seeking peace in a post-cold war world of hegemony and terrorism. In: Russett, B. (ed.) Policy and Purpose in the Global Community. Palgrave Macmillan, New York (2006)
Oneal, J., Oneal, F., Maoz, Z., Russett, B.: The liberal peace: interdependence, democracy, and international conflict, 1950–1985. J. Peace Res. 33, 21 (1996)CrossRef
Oneal, J., Russett, B., Berbaum, M.: Causes of peace: democracy, interdependence, and international organizations, 1985–1992. Int. Stud. Q. 47, 371–494 (2003)CrossRef
Papayoanou, P.: Interdependence, institutions, and the balance of power. Int. Security. 20, 42–76 (1996)CrossRef
Papayoanou, P.: Economic interdependence and the balance of power. Int. Stud. Quart. 41, 120–131 (1997)
Pevehouse, J., Russett, B.: Democratic international governmental organizations promote peace. Int. Organ. 60, 969–1000 (2005)
Polacheck, S.: Conflict and trade: an economics approach to political international interactions. In: Isard, W., Anderton, C.H. (eds.) Economics of Arms Reduction and the Peace Process. North Holland, Amsterdam (1992)
Poole, D., Mackworth, A., Goebel, R.: Computational Intelligence – A Logical Approach. Oxford University Press, Oxford (1998)MATH
Ragin, C.: The Comparative Method: Moving beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies. University of California Press, Berkeley (1987)
Ray, J.L.: Explaining interstate conflict and war: what should be controlled for? Conflict Manag. Peace Sci. 20, 1–32 (2003)
Ray, J.L.: Constructing multivariate analyses (of dangerous dyads). Conflict Manag. Peace Sci 22, 277–292 (2005)CrossRef
Reuveny, R., Kang, H.: International trade, political conflict/cooperation, and Granger causality. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 40, 943–970 (1996)CrossRef
Richardson, L.: Statistics of Deadly Quarrel. Boxwood Press, Pittsburgh (1960)
Ripley, B.: Statistical aspects of neural networks. In: Barndorff-Nielsen, O.E., Jensen, J.L., Kendall, W.S. (eds.) Network and Chaos-Statistical and Probabilistic Aspects. Chapman & Hall, London (1993)
Root-Bernstein, R.: How scientists really think. Perspect. Biol. Med. 32, 472–488 (1989)
Rosenau, J.M.: Citizenship in a changing global order. In: Rosenau, J.M., Czempiel, E. (eds.) Governance Without Government. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1992)CrossRef
Rummel, R.J.: Understanding Conflict and War: War, Power, Peace. Sage, Beverly Hills (1979)
Russett, B., Antholis, W.: Do democracies fight each other? Evidence from the peloponnesian war. J. Peace Res. 29, 415–434 (1992)CrossRef
Russett, B., Oneal, J.R.: Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations. W. W. Norton, New York (2001)
Sarle, W.: Neural network and statistical models. In: Proceedings of the 19th Annual SAS Users Group International Conference, Dallas. pp. 1–13 (1994)
Schweller, R.L., Priess, D.: A Tale of Two Realisms: Expanding the Institutions Debate. Mershon Int. Stud. Review. 41, 2 (1997)
Signorino, C.S., Yilmaz, K.: Strategic misspecification in regression models. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 47, 551–566 (2003)CrossRef
Singer, J.D.: The level-of-analysis problem in international relations. In: Knorr, K., Verba, S. (eds.) The International System: Theoretical Essays. Princeton University Press, Princeton (1961)
Singer, J.D., Small, M.: The Wages of War, 1816–1965: A Statistical Handbook. Wiley, New York (1972)
Siverson, R., Starr, H.: Diffusion of War: A Study of Opportunity and Willingness. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor (1991)
Small, M., Singer, J.D.: The war-proneness of democratic regimes. Jerusalem J. Int. Relat. 1, 50–69 (1976)
Spiro, D.: The insignificance of the liberal peace. Int. Security. 19, 50–86 (1994)CrossRef
Stein, A.: Governments, economic interdependence, and international cooperation. In: Tetlock, P., Husbands, J., Jervis, R., Stern, P., Tilly, C. (eds.) Behavior, Society, and International Conflict. Oxford University Press, Oxford (1993)
Thompson, W.R., Tucker, R.: A tale of two democratic peace critiques. J. Conflict Res. 41, 428–454 (1997)CrossRef
Tiao, G.C., Tsay, R.S.: Some advances in non-linear and adaptive modelling in time-series. J. Forecasting. 13, 109–131 (1994)CrossRef
Waltz, K.: Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley, Reading (1979)
Weart, S.: Peace among democratic and oligarchic republics. J. Peace Res. 31, 299–316 (1994)CrossRef
Weede, E.: Democracy and war involvement. J. Conflict Resolut. 28, 649–664 (1984)CrossRef
Weede, E.: Some simple calculations on democracy and war involvement. J. Peace Res. 29, 377–383 (1992)CrossRef
Zadeh, L.A.: Roles of soft computing and fuzzy logic in the conception, design and deployment of information / intelligent systems. In: Kaynak, O., Zadeh, L.A., Turksen, B., Rudas, I.J. (eds.) Computational Intelligence: Soft Computing and Fuzzy-Neuro Integration with Applications. Springer, Berlin (1998)
Metadata
Title
Modeling Conflicts Between States: New Developments for an Old Problem
Authors
Tshilidzi Marwala
Dr. Monica Lagazio
Copyright Year
2011
Publisher
Springer London
Book
Militarized Conflict Modeling Using Computational Intelligence

Print ISBN: 978-0-85729-789-1

Electronic ISBN: 978-0-85729-790-7

Copyright Year: 2011

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-790-7_1

Premium Partner

    Image Credits