Modelling and Forecasting Waste Generation – DECWASTE Information System

The DECWASTE forecasting waste generation information system is presented. It is based on Annexes I, II and III of Regulation (EC) No 849/2010 amending Regulation (EC) No 2150/2002 of the European Parliament and of the European Council on waste (WSR). DECWASTE forecasts the quantity of waste generated for each waste category listed in Section 2(1) of Annex I of the WSR at the Czech national level. Its multi-linear regression forecasting model is based on environmental as well as economic and social predictors. These models use historical data of the waste information system (ISOH) of the Czech Environmental Information Agency and sets of indicators (predictors) integrated into forecasting models. The methodology consisted in adjusting predictors of the forecasting models into a Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework and their sensitivity analysis enables their choice into forecasting models and their verification using appropriate data. DECWASTE supports decisions made by the Ministry of the Environment to improve the implementation of the national Waste Management Plan.