Modelling of Risk and Reliability of Maritime Transport Services

Maritime transport plays nowadays an important role in the global economy. In 2017 around 80% of trade was carried by sea, therefore there is a need for constant monitoring of transport processes from the point of view of their reliability and punctuality. In order to provide up-to-date information about reliability and punctuality, a lot of data from different maritime sources needs to be collected and analysed. The paper presents concepts of two methods that based on an analysis of big amount of maritime data provide information that might be used to support various entities from the maritime domain in decision-making. The first method concerns a short-term assessment of reliability of a maritime transport service, while the second one dynamically predicts punctuality of a ship. The presented methods are part of a PhD research. The aim of the article is to provide an overview of this research, starting from motivation, its objectives and the thesis, through presentation of the methods, up to description of the main results of methods’ evaluation.