Skip to main content
Top

2016 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

Modelling Trend Progression Through an Extension of the Polya Urn Process

Authors : Marijn ten Thij, Sandjai Bhulai

Published in: Advances in Network Science

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Knowing how and when trends are formed is a frequently visited research goal. In our work, we focus on the progression of trends through (social) networks. We use a random graph (RG) model to mimic the progression of a trend through the network. The context of the trend is not included in our model. We show that every state of the RG model maps to a state of the Polya process. We find that the limit of the component size distribution of the RG model shows power-law behaviour. These results are also supported by simulations.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literature
1.
go back to reference Altshuler, Y., Pan, W., Pentland, A.S.: Trends prediction using social diffusion models. In: Yang, S.J., Greenberg, A.M., Endsley, M. (eds.) SBP 2012. LNCS, vol. 7227, pp. 97–104. Springer, Heidelberg (2012)CrossRef Altshuler, Y., Pan, W., Pentland, A.S.: Trends prediction using social diffusion models. In: Yang, S.J., Greenberg, A.M., Endsley, M. (eds.) SBP 2012. LNCS, vol. 7227, pp. 97–104. Springer, Heidelberg (2012)CrossRef
2.
go back to reference Bauckhage, C., Kersting, K., Hadiji, F.: Parameterizing the distance distribution of undirected networks. In: Proceedings of UAI (2015) Bauckhage, C., Kersting, K., Hadiji, F.: Parameterizing the distance distribution of undirected networks. In: Proceedings of UAI (2015)
3.
4.
go back to reference Bhattacharya, D., Ram, S.: Sharing news articles using 140 characters: a diffusion analysis on twitter. In: 2012 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining (ASONAM), pp. 966–971. IEEE (2012) Bhattacharya, D., Ram, S.: Sharing news articles using 140 characters: a diffusion analysis on twitter. In: 2012 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining (ASONAM), pp. 966–971. IEEE (2012)
5.
go back to reference Carton, S., Adar, E., Park, S., Mei, Q., Zeffer, N., Resnick, P.: Audience analysis for competing memes in social media. In: Ninth International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (2015) Carton, S., Adar, E., Park, S., Mei, Q., Zeffer, N., Resnick, P.: Audience analysis for competing memes in social media. In: Ninth International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (2015)
8.
go back to reference Ewens, W.J.: Mathematical Population Genetics 1: Theoretical Introduction, vol. 27. Springer Science & Business Media, New York (2012)MATH Ewens, W.J.: Mathematical Population Genetics 1: Theoretical Introduction, vol. 27. Springer Science & Business Media, New York (2012)MATH
9.
go back to reference Ferrara, E., JafariAsbagh, M., Varol, O., Qazvinian, V., Menczer, F., Flammini, A.: Clustering memes in social media. In: 2013 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining (ASONAM), pp. 548–555. IEEE (2013) Ferrara, E., JafariAsbagh, M., Varol, O., Qazvinian, V., Menczer, F., Flammini, A.: Clustering memes in social media. In: 2013 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining (ASONAM), pp. 548–555. IEEE (2013)
11.
go back to reference Gleeson, J.P., Cellai, D., Onnela, J.P., Porter, M.A., Reed-Tsochas, F.: A simple generative model of collective online behavior. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 111(29), 10411–10415 (2014)CrossRef Gleeson, J.P., Cellai, D., Onnela, J.P., Porter, M.A., Reed-Tsochas, F.: A simple generative model of collective online behavior. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 111(29), 10411–10415 (2014)CrossRef
12.
go back to reference Guille, A., Hacid, H., Favre, C., Zighed, D.A.: Information diffusion in online social networks: a survey. ACM SIGMOD Rec. 42(2), 17–28 (2013)CrossRef Guille, A., Hacid, H., Favre, C., Zighed, D.A.: Information diffusion in online social networks: a survey. ACM SIGMOD Rec. 42(2), 17–28 (2013)CrossRef
13.
go back to reference Hoang, T.A., Lim, E.P.: Virality and susceptibility in information diffusions. In: ICWSM (2012) Hoang, T.A., Lim, E.P.: Virality and susceptibility in information diffusions. In: ICWSM (2012)
14.
go back to reference Iwata, T., Shah, A., Ghahramani, Z.: Discovering latent influence in online social activities via shared cascade poisson processes. In: Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, KDD 2013, pp. 266–274. ACM, New York (2013). http://doi.acm.org/10.1145/2487575.2487624 Iwata, T., Shah, A., Ghahramani, Z.: Discovering latent influence in online social activities via shared cascade poisson processes. In: Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, KDD 2013, pp. 266–274. ACM, New York (2013). http://​doi.​acm.​org/​10.​1145/​2487575.​2487624
15.
go back to reference Kupavskii, A., Ostroumova, L., Umnov, A., Usachev, S., Serdyukov, P., Gusev, G., Kustarev, A.: Prediction of retweet cascade size over time. In: Proceedings of the 21st ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, pp. 2335–2338. ACM (2012) Kupavskii, A., Ostroumova, L., Umnov, A., Usachev, S., Serdyukov, P., Gusev, G., Kustarev, A.: Prediction of retweet cascade size over time. In: Proceedings of the 21st ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, pp. 2335–2338. ACM (2012)
16.
go back to reference Lehmann, J., Gonçalves, B., Ramasco, J.J., Cattuto, C.: Dynamical classes of collective attention in Twitter. In: Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on World Wide Web, pp. 251–260. ACM (2012) Lehmann, J., Gonçalves, B., Ramasco, J.J., Cattuto, C.: Dynamical classes of collective attention in Twitter. In: Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on World Wide Web, pp. 251–260. ACM (2012)
17.
go back to reference Lerman, K., Ghosh, R.: Information Contagion: An Empirical Study of the Spread of News on Digg and Twitter Social Networks (2010) Lerman, K., Ghosh, R.: Information Contagion: An Empirical Study of the Spread of News on Digg and Twitter Social Networks (2010)
21.
go back to reference Romero, D.M., Meeder, B., Kleinberg, J.: Differences in the mechanics of information diffusion across topics: idioms, political hashtags, and complex contagion on Twitter. In: Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on World Wide Web, pp. 695–704. ACM (2011) Romero, D.M., Meeder, B., Kleinberg, J.: Differences in the mechanics of information diffusion across topics: idioms, political hashtags, and complex contagion on Twitter. In: Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on World Wide Web, pp. 695–704. ACM (2011)
22.
go back to reference Sadikov, E., Martinez, M.M.M.: Information propagation on Twitter. CS322 Project Report (2009) Sadikov, E., Martinez, M.M.M.: Information propagation on Twitter. CS322 Project Report (2009)
24.
go back to reference ten Thij, M., Ouboter, T., Worm, D., Litvak, N., van den Berg, H., Bhulai, S.: Modelling of trends in twitter using retweet graph dynamics. In: Bonato, A., Graham, F.C., Prałat, P. (eds.) WAW 2014. LNCS, vol. 8882, pp. 132–147. Springer, Heidelberg (2014) ten Thij, M., Ouboter, T., Worm, D., Litvak, N., van den Berg, H., Bhulai, S.: Modelling of trends in twitter using retweet graph dynamics. In: Bonato, A., Graham, F.C., Prałat, P. (eds.) WAW 2014. LNCS, vol. 8882, pp. 132–147. Springer, Heidelberg (2014)
27.
go back to reference Yule, G.U.: A mathematical theory of evolution, based on the conclusions of Dr. J.C. Willis, F.R.S. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B Containing Pap. Biol. Character 213, 21–87 (1925)CrossRef Yule, G.U.: A mathematical theory of evolution, based on the conclusions of Dr. J.C. Willis, F.R.S. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B Containing Pap. Biol. Character 213, 21–87 (1925)CrossRef
29.
go back to reference Zubiaga, A., Spina, D., Fresno, V., Martínez, R.: Classifying trending topics: a typology of conversation triggers on Twitter. In: Proceedings of the 20th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, pp. 2461–2464. ACM (2011) Zubiaga, A., Spina, D., Fresno, V., Martínez, R.: Classifying trending topics: a typology of conversation triggers on Twitter. In: Proceedings of the 20th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, pp. 2461–2464. ACM (2011)
Metadata
Title
Modelling Trend Progression Through an Extension of the Polya Urn Process
Authors
Marijn ten Thij
Sandjai Bhulai
Copyright Year
2016
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-28361-6_5

Premium Partner