Skip to main content
Top
Published in: Public Choice 1-2/2018

12-05-2018

Multidimensional incongruence and vote switching in Europe

Authors: Ryan Bakker, Seth Jolly, Jonathan Polk

Published in: Public Choice | Issue 1-2/2018

Log in

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Does ideological incongruence hurt parties in elections? Research on the representational relationship between parties and voters suggests that ideological congruence can boost a party’s electoral prospects. However, while the mechanism is at the individual-level, most of the literature focuses on the party-level. In this article, we develop a set of hypotheses based on a multi-issue conception of party-voter congruence at the individual-level, and examine the electoral consequences of these varying congruence levels in the 2014 European Parliament elections. Consistent with our expectations, comparative analysis finds that ideological and issue-specific incongruence is a significant factor in voting behavior in the European Parliament elections. Although the substantive effects of incongruence are understandably small compared to partisanship, government, or EU performance evaluations, party-voter disagreement consistently matters, and voters’ issue salience is an important moderator of the impact of incongruence on vote choice.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Appendix
Available only for authorised users
Footnotes
1
We use expert survey data to place the parties because CHES and EES provide comparable placements for parties and the public across an array of issues. Reassuringly, Powell (2009) reports very similar measures of congruence using party manifestos, experts, or public placements of parties; recent comparisons of left- right placements by experts and mass survey respondents lend further support to the comparability of these sources (Adams et al. 2014; Dalton and McAllister 2015).
 
2
Hobolt and Tilley (2016) uses government experience as the distinguishing characteristic, while Hong (2015) relies on a niche party categorization largely based on the work of Meguid (2005, 2008). In this definition, niche parties, like Greens and Radical Rights, emphasize issues other than standard left–right.
 
3
Significantly, Hong (2015, 520) also directly considers protest voting in addition to ideologically motivated (sincere) vote switching, by including distrust in the system as an independent variable. The protest voting hypothesis is related theoretically to the sanctioning model proposed by Hobolt and Tilley (2016), wherein they use pocketbook economic variables (e.g., whether the respondent feels worse off after the crisis) to proxy for voter desire to sanction parties in power. Finally, in their analysis, Hobolt and Tilley (2016, 20) find that political (un)interest best explains abstention, rather than ideological positions, which is in line with research from the U.S. context reporting that uninformed voters are less likely to vote (Palfrey and Poole 1987). Though our primary focus is on the effects of ideological incongruence, we will incorporate these alternatives.
 
4
Our first hypothesis relates to the most general, overarching dimension of political competition within Europe, whereas the next two pertain to more particular policy areas. In order to protect against concerns that we are assessing incomparable types of congruence against one another, in the appendix, we investigate a more specific policy area related to left–right competition, redistribution. Our central findings hold in these alternate model specifications.
 
5
The question wordings for these items are included in Appendix 1.
 
6
Hong (2015, 523) measures incongruence using voters’ perceptions of each party’s positions rather than something like CHES or CMP ideological measures. That is a reasonable strategy; however, it is limited in a crucial way for our purposes. Understandably, the EES asks voters only to place parties on a very few issues, in 2014 we only have public placements of the parties on a general left–right scale, which means that we cannot use voter placements to assess the effects of incongruence on immigration or other particular issues.
 
7
The multidimensional Euclidian distance incongruence measure is the square root of the sum of the squares of the three individual incongruence measures.
 
8
In addition to the logit models shown, we also conducted multinomial logistic regression (with country fixed effects), available in Table 6 in the Appendix. The main effects are robust to alternative model specifications.
 
9
In the Appendix, we show the results for the Greens and Regionalists in Table 7.
 
10
In the appendix, we explore further this pattern with a set of models splitting the party supporters into government and non-government parties in Table 8. Similar to the models in Table 3, those models confirm that incongruence and protest variables motivate switching from mainstream parties, whereas only incongruence variables, not protest variables, affect challenger party switching.
 
11
Many thanks to the EES team for sharing a version of the survey with the MIP question translated and coded. We are particularly grateful since categorizing the open-ended responses given in the respondents’ native languages is an intense coding operation.
 
12
For immigration, the categories are immigration, labour migration/emigration, and national immigration policy. For the EU, the categories are European integration, EU political corruption, financing the EU, competences of the EU institutions, European Central Bank, membership in the EU of Eastern European countries and the Balkans, structural funds, single market, effect of the Euro, or European elections.
 
13
In the full EES dataset with 30,064 respondents, the percentages are similar, with 2.6% citing the EU and 9.8% immigration.
 
14
For reference, in the appendix, Tables 9 and 10 displays the results for the interaction models with the four dependent variables, following the format of Table 2.
 
15
The simple slope for the conditional effect of EU incongruence is 0.15, p < 0.01.
 
16
This is not to say these voters are not interesting on their own. Of the 2008 people in our sample that listed immigration as the MIP, only 43% of them switched (876/2008). Of these, 56% of them abstained in the EP election. So while the immigration MIP individuals are less likely to switch, when they do defect from their national choice, they are more likely to abstain than vote for a new party.
 
17
Immigration voters are 5.5 compared to 5.1 for other voters. Their parties are 5.7 compared to 5.3. These differences are statistically significant at the p ≤ 0.001 level.
 
18
We rescaled this question (010) to facilitate comparison.
 
19
We reversed the scale of this question to facilitate comparison.
 
Literature
go back to reference Achen, C. H., & Bartels, L. M. (2016). Democracy for realists: Why elections do not produce responsive government. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRef Achen, C. H., & Bartels, L. M. (2016). Democracy for realists: Why elections do not produce responsive government. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRef
go back to reference Adams, J., Ezrow, L., & Leiter, D. (2012). Partisan sorting and niche parties. West European Politics, 35(6), 1272–1294.CrossRef Adams, J., Ezrow, L., & Leiter, D. (2012). Partisan sorting and niche parties. West European Politics, 35(6), 1272–1294.CrossRef
go back to reference Adams, J., Ezrow, L., & Somer-Topcu, Z. (2014). Do voters respond to party manifestos or to a wider information environment? An analysis of mass-elite linkages on European integration. American Journal of Political Science, 58(4), 967–978.CrossRef Adams, J., Ezrow, L., & Somer-Topcu, Z. (2014). Do voters respond to party manifestos or to a wider information environment? An analysis of mass-elite linkages on European integration. American Journal of Political Science, 58(4), 967–978.CrossRef
go back to reference Adams, J., Ezrow, L., & Wlezien, C. (2016). The company you keep: How voters infer party positions on European integration from governing coalition arrangements. American Journal of Political Science, 60(4), 811–823.CrossRef Adams, J., Ezrow, L., & Wlezien, C. (2016). The company you keep: How voters infer party positions on European integration from governing coalition arrangements. American Journal of Political Science, 60(4), 811–823.CrossRef
go back to reference American Political Science Association Committee on Political Parties (APSA). (1950). To- ward a more responsible two-party system: A report of the committee on political parties. American Political Science Review, 3(2), 1–90. American Political Science Association Committee on Political Parties (APSA). (1950). To- ward a more responsible two-party system: A report of the committee on political parties. American Political Science Review, 3(2), 1–90.
go back to reference Bakker, R., Jolly, S., & Polk, J. (2012). Complexity in the European party space: Exploring dimensionality with experts. European Union Politics, 13(2), 219–245.CrossRef Bakker, R., Jolly, S., & Polk, J. (2012). Complexity in the European party space: Exploring dimensionality with experts. European Union Politics, 13(2), 219–245.CrossRef
go back to reference Bargsted, M. A., & Kedar, O. (2009). Coalition-targeted duvergerian voting: how expectations affect voter choice under proportional representation. American Journal of Political Science, 53(2), 307–323.CrossRef Bargsted, M. A., & Kedar, O. (2009). Coalition-targeted duvergerian voting: how expectations affect voter choice under proportional representation. American Journal of Political Science, 53(2), 307–323.CrossRef
go back to reference Bélanger, É., & Meguid, B. M. (2008). Issue salience, issue ownership, and issue-based vote choice. Electoral Studies, 27(3), 477–491.CrossRef Bélanger, É., & Meguid, B. M. (2008). Issue salience, issue ownership, and issue-based vote choice. Electoral Studies, 27(3), 477–491.CrossRef
go back to reference Belchior, A. M. (2013). Explaining left–right party congruence across European party systems a test of micro-, meso-, and macro-level models. Comparative Political Studies, 46(3), 352–386.CrossRef Belchior, A. M. (2013). Explaining left–right party congruence across European party systems a test of micro-, meso-, and macro-level models. Comparative Political Studies, 46(3), 352–386.CrossRef
go back to reference Blais, A., & Bodet, M. A. (2006). Does proportional representation foster closer congruence between citizens and policy makers? Comparative Political Studies, 39(10), 1243–1262.CrossRef Blais, A., & Bodet, M. A. (2006). Does proportional representation foster closer congruence between citizens and policy makers? Comparative Political Studies, 39(10), 1243–1262.CrossRef
go back to reference Bornschier, S. (2010). The new cultural divide and the two-dimensional political space in western Europe. West European Politics, 33(3), 419–444.CrossRef Bornschier, S. (2010). The new cultural divide and the two-dimensional political space in western Europe. West European Politics, 33(3), 419–444.CrossRef
go back to reference Budge, I., & Farlie, D. (1983). Explaining and predicting elections: Issue effects and party strategies in twenty-three democracies. London, Boston: Allen & Unwin. Budge, I., & Farlie, D. (1983). Explaining and predicting elections: Issue effects and party strategies in twenty-three democracies. London, Boston:  Allen & Unwin.
go back to reference Budge, I., McDonald, M., Keman, H., & Pennings, P. (2012). Organizing democratic choice: Party representation over time. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRef Budge, I., McDonald, M., Keman, H., & Pennings, P. (2012). Organizing democratic choice: Party representation over time. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRef
go back to reference Clark, N. (2015). The federalist perspective in elections to the European Parliament. JCMS. Journal of Common Market Studies, 53(3), 524–541.CrossRef Clark, N. (2015). The federalist perspective in elections to the European Parliament. JCMS. Journal of Common Market Studies, 53(3), 524–541.CrossRef
go back to reference Costello, R., Thomassen, J., & Rosema, M. (2012). European parliament elections and political representation: Policy congruence between voters and parties. West European Politics, 35(6), 1226–1248.CrossRef Costello, R., Thomassen, J., & Rosema, M. (2012). European parliament elections and political representation: Policy congruence between voters and parties. West European Politics, 35(6), 1226–1248.CrossRef
go back to reference Dalton, R. J. (2016). Stability and change in party issue positions: The 2009 and 2014 European elections. Electoral Studies, 44, 525–534.CrossRef Dalton, R. J. (2016). Stability and change in party issue positions: The 2009 and 2014 European elections. Electoral Studies, 44, 525–534.CrossRef
go back to reference Dalton, R. J., & McAllister, I. (2015). Random walk or planned excursion? Continuity and change in the left–right positions of political parties. Comparative Political Studies, 48(6), 759–787.CrossRef Dalton, R. J., & McAllister, I. (2015). Random walk or planned excursion? Continuity and change in the left–right positions of political parties. Comparative Political Studies, 48(6), 759–787.CrossRef
go back to reference De Sio, L., & Weber, T. (2014). Issue yield: A model of party strategy in multidimensional space. American Political Science Review, 108(4), 870.CrossRef De Sio, L., & Weber, T. (2014). Issue yield: A model of party strategy in multidimensional space. American Political Science Review, 108(4), 870.CrossRef
go back to reference de Vries, C. E., & Edwards, E. E. (2009). Taking Europe to its extremes extremist parties and public Euroscepticism. Party Politics, 15(1), 5–28.CrossRef de Vries, C. E., & Edwards, E. E. (2009). Taking Europe to its extremes extremist parties and public Euroscepticism. Party Politics, 15(1), 5–28.CrossRef
go back to reference de Vries, C. E., & Marks, G. (2012). The struggle over dimensionality: A note on theory and empirics. European Union Politics, 13(2), 185–193.CrossRef de Vries, C. E., & Marks, G. (2012). The struggle over dimensionality: A note on theory and empirics. European Union Politics, 13(2), 185–193.CrossRef
go back to reference Dolný, B., & Baboš, P. (2015). Voter-representative congruence in Europe: A loss of institutional influence? West European Politics, 38(6), 1274–1304.CrossRef Dolný, B., & Baboš, P. (2015). Voter-representative congruence in Europe: A loss of institutional influence? West European Politics, 38(6), 1274–1304.CrossRef
go back to reference Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. New York: Addison Wesley. Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. New York: Addison Wesley.
go back to reference Duch, R. M., May, J., & Armstrong, D. A. (2010). Coalition-directed voting in multiparty democracies. American Political Science Review, 104(4), 698–719.CrossRef Duch, R. M., May, J., & Armstrong, D. A. (2010). Coalition-directed voting in multiparty democracies. American Political Science Review, 104(4), 698–719.CrossRef
go back to reference Enelow, J. M., & Hinich, M. J. (1984). The spatial theory of voting: An introduction. New York: Cambridge University Press. Enelow, J. M., & Hinich, M. J. (1984). The spatial theory of voting: An introduction. New York: Cambridge University Press.
go back to reference Ezrow, L. (2010). Linking citizens and parties. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRef Ezrow, L. (2010). Linking citizens and parties. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRef
go back to reference Giger, N., & Lefkofridi, Z. (2014). Salience-based congruence between parties and their voters: The Swiss case. Swiss Political Science Review, 20(2), 287–304.CrossRef Giger, N., & Lefkofridi, Z. (2014). Salience-based congruence between parties and their voters: The Swiss case. Swiss Political Science Review, 20(2), 287–304.CrossRef
go back to reference Golder, M., & Stramski, J. (2010). Ideological congruence and electoral institutions. American Journal of Political Science, 54(1), 90–106.CrossRef Golder, M., & Stramski, J. (2010). Ideological congruence and electoral institutions. American Journal of Political Science, 54(1), 90–106.CrossRef
go back to reference Hix, S., & Marsh, M. (2007). Punishment or protest? Understanding European Parliament elections. Journal of Politics, 69(2), 495–510.CrossRef Hix, S., & Marsh, M. (2007). Punishment or protest? Understanding European Parliament elections. Journal of Politics, 69(2), 495–510.CrossRef
go back to reference Hobolt, S. B., & de Vries, C. E. (2016). Turning against the union? The impact of the crisis on the Eurosceptic vote in the 2014 European Parliament elections. Electoral Studies, 44, 504–514.CrossRef Hobolt, S. B., & de Vries, C. E. (2016). Turning against the union? The impact of the crisis on the Eurosceptic vote in the 2014 European Parliament elections. Electoral Studies, 44, 504–514.CrossRef
go back to reference Hobolt, S. B., & Spoon, J. (2012). Motivating the European voter: Parties, issues and campaigns in European Parliament elections. European Journal of Political Research, 51(6), 701–727.CrossRef Hobolt, S. B., & Spoon, J. (2012). Motivating the European voter: Parties, issues and campaigns in European Parliament elections. European Journal of Political Research, 51(6), 701–727.CrossRef
go back to reference Hobolt, S. B., Spoon, J., & Tilley, J. (2009). A vote against Europe? Explaining defection at the 1999 and 2004 European Parliament elections. British Journal of Political Science, 39(1), 93–115.CrossRef Hobolt, S. B., Spoon, J., & Tilley, J. (2009). A vote against Europe? Explaining defection at the 1999 and 2004 European Parliament elections. British Journal of Political Science, 39(1), 93–115.CrossRef
go back to reference Hobolt, S. B., & Tilley, J. (2016). Fleeing the centre: The rise of challenger parties in the aftermath of the Euro crisis. West European Politics, 39(5), 971–991.CrossRef Hobolt, S. B., & Tilley, J. (2016). Fleeing the centre: The rise of challenger parties in the aftermath of the Euro crisis. West European Politics, 39(5), 971–991.CrossRef
go back to reference Hong, G. (2015). Explaining vote switching to niche parties in the 2009 European Parliament elections. European Union Politics, 16(4), 514–535.CrossRef Hong, G. (2015). Explaining vote switching to niche parties in the 2009 European Parliament elections. European Union Politics, 16(4), 514–535.CrossRef
go back to reference Hooghe, L., & Marks, G. (2009). A postfunctionalist theory of European integration: From permissive consensus to constraining dissensus. British Journal of Political Science, 39(1), 1–23.CrossRef Hooghe, L., & Marks, G. (2009). A postfunctionalist theory of European integration: From permissive consensus to constraining dissensus. British Journal of Political Science, 39(1), 1–23.CrossRef
go back to reference Kitschelt, H. (1994). The transformation of European social democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef Kitschelt, H. (1994). The transformation of European social democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef
go back to reference Klüver, H., & Spoon, J. (2015). Bringing salience back in: Explaining voting defection in the European Parliament. Party Politics, 21(4), 553–564.CrossRef Klüver, H., & Spoon, J. (2015). Bringing salience back in: Explaining voting defection in the European Parliament. Party Politics, 21(4), 553–564.CrossRef
go back to reference Kriesi, H. (2007). The role of European integration in national election campaigns. European Union Politics, 8(1), 83–108.CrossRef Kriesi, H. (2007). The role of European integration in national election campaigns. European Union Politics, 8(1), 83–108.CrossRef
go back to reference Kriesi, H. (2010). Restructuration of partisan politics and the emergence of a new cleavage based on values. West European Politics, 33(3), 673–685.CrossRef Kriesi, H. (2010). Restructuration of partisan politics and the emergence of a new cleavage based on values. West European Politics, 33(3), 673–685.CrossRef
go back to reference Lefkofridi, Z., Giger, N., & Gallego, A. (2014a). Electoral participation in pursuit of policy representation: ideological congruence and voter turnout. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 24(3), 291–311.CrossRef Lefkofridi, Z., Giger, N., & Gallego, A. (2014a). Electoral participation in pursuit of policy representation: ideological congruence and voter turnout. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 24(3), 291–311.CrossRef
go back to reference Lefkofridi, Z., Wagner, M., & Willmann, J. E. (2014b). Left-authoritarians and policy representation in western Europe: electoral choice across ideological dimensions. West European Politics, 37(1), 65–90.CrossRef Lefkofridi, Z., Wagner, M., & Willmann, J. E. (2014b). Left-authoritarians and policy representation in western Europe: electoral choice across ideological dimensions. West European Politics, 37(1), 65–90.CrossRef
go back to reference Lenz, G. S. (2013). Follow the leader? How voters respond to politicians’ policies and performance. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Lenz, G. S. (2013). Follow the leader? How voters respond to politicians’ policies and performance. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
go back to reference Marks, G., Hooghe, L., Nelson, M., & Edwards, E. (2006). Party competition and European integration in east and west. Different structure, same causality. Comparative Political Studies, 39, 155–175.CrossRef Marks, G., Hooghe, L., Nelson, M., & Edwards, E. (2006). Party competition and European integration in east and west. Different structure, same causality. Comparative Political Studies, 39, 155–175.CrossRef
go back to reference Mattila, M., & Raunio, T. (2006). Cautious voters: Supportive parties: Opinion congruence between voters and parties on the EU dimension. European Union Politics, 7(4), 427–449.CrossRef Mattila, M., & Raunio, T. (2006). Cautious voters: Supportive parties: Opinion congruence between voters and parties on the EU dimension. European Union Politics, 7(4), 427–449.CrossRef
go back to reference Mattila, M., & Raunio, T. (2012). Drifting further apart: National parties and their electorates on the EU dimension. West European Politics, 35(3), 589–606.CrossRef Mattila, M., & Raunio, T. (2012). Drifting further apart: National parties and their electorates on the EU dimension. West European Politics, 35(3), 589–606.CrossRef
go back to reference Meguid, B. M. (2005). Competition between unequals: The role of mainstream party strategy in niche party success. American Political Science Review, 99(3), 347–360.CrossRef Meguid, B. M. (2005). Competition between unequals: The role of mainstream party strategy in niche party success. American Political Science Review, 99(3), 347–360.CrossRef
go back to reference Meguid, B. M. (2008). Party competition between unequals: Strategies and electoral fortunes in Western Europe. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef Meguid, B. M. (2008). Party competition between unequals: Strategies and electoral fortunes in Western Europe. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef
go back to reference Önnudóttir, E. H. (2014). Policy congruence and style of representation: Party voters and political parties. West European Politics, 37(3), 538–563.CrossRef Önnudóttir, E. H. (2014). Policy congruence and style of representation: Party voters and political parties. West European Politics, 37(3), 538–563.CrossRef
go back to reference Palfrey, T. R., & Poole, K. T. (1987). The relationship between information, ideology, and voting behavior. American Journal of Political Science, 31(3), 511–530.CrossRef Palfrey, T. R., & Poole, K. T. (1987). The relationship between information, ideology, and voting behavior. American Journal of Political Science, 31(3), 511–530.CrossRef
go back to reference Petrocik, J. R. (1996). Issue ownership in presidential elections, with a 1980 case study. American Journal of Political Science, 40(3), 825–850.CrossRef Petrocik, J. R. (1996). Issue ownership in presidential elections, with a 1980 case study. American Journal of Political Science, 40(3), 825–850.CrossRef
go back to reference Piketty, T. (2000). Voting as communicating. Review of Economic Studies, 67, 169–191.CrossRef Piketty, T. (2000). Voting as communicating. Review of Economic Studies, 67, 169–191.CrossRef
go back to reference Polk, J., Rovny, J., Bakker, R., Edwards, E., Hooghe, L., Jolly, S., et al. (2017). Explaining the salience of anti-elitism and reducing political corruption for political parties in Europe with the 2014 Chapel Hill Expert Survey data. Research and Politics, 4(1), 1–9.CrossRef Polk, J., Rovny, J., Bakker, R., Edwards, E., Hooghe, L., Jolly, S., et al. (2017). Explaining the salience of anti-elitism and reducing political corruption for political parties in Europe with the 2014 Chapel Hill Expert Survey data. Research and Politics, 4(1), 1–9.CrossRef
go back to reference Poole, K. T. (2005). Spatial models of parliamentary voting. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef Poole, K. T. (2005). Spatial models of parliamentary voting. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef
go back to reference Poole, K. T., & Rosenthal, H. (1985). A spatial model for legislative roll call analysis. American Journal of Political Science, 29(2), 357–384.CrossRef Poole, K. T., & Rosenthal, H. (1985). A spatial model for legislative roll call analysis. American Journal of Political Science, 29(2), 357–384.CrossRef
go back to reference Poole, K. T., & Rosenthal, H. (1997). Congress. A political-economic history of roll call voting. New York: Oxford University Press. Poole, K. T., & Rosenthal, H. (1997). Congress. A political-economic history of roll call voting. New York: Oxford University Press.
go back to reference Poole, K. T., Rosenthal, H., & Koford, K. (1991). On dimensionalizing roll call votes in the US Congress. American Political Science Review, 85(3), 955–976.CrossRef Poole, K. T., Rosenthal, H., & Koford, K. (1991). On dimensionalizing roll call votes in the US Congress. American Political Science Review, 85(3), 955–976.CrossRef
go back to reference Powell, G. B. (2000). Elections as instruments of democracy: Majoritarian and proportional visions. New Haven: Yale University Press. Powell, G. B. (2000). Elections as instruments of democracy: Majoritarian and proportional visions. New Haven: Yale University Press.
go back to reference Powell, G. B. (2009). The ideological congruence controversy: The impact of alternative measures, data, and time periods on the effects of election rules. Comparative Political Studies, 42(12), 1475–1497.CrossRef Powell, G. B. (2009). The ideological congruence controversy: The impact of alternative measures, data, and time periods on the effects of election rules. Comparative Political Studies, 42(12), 1475–1497.CrossRef
go back to reference Rabinowitz, G., & Macdonald, S. E. (1989). A directional theory of issue voting. American Political Science Review, 83(1), 93–121.CrossRef Rabinowitz, G., & Macdonald, S. E. (1989). A directional theory of issue voting. American Political Science Review, 83(1), 93–121.CrossRef
go back to reference Reif, K., & Schmitt, H. (1980). Nine second-order national elections: A conceptual framework for the analysis of European election results. European Journal of Political Research, 8(1), 3–44.CrossRef Reif, K., & Schmitt, H. (1980). Nine second-order national elections: A conceptual framework for the analysis of European election results. European Journal of Political Research, 8(1), 3–44.CrossRef
go back to reference Rohrschneider, R., & Whitefield, S. (2012). The strain of representation: How parties represent diverse voters in Western and Eastern Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRef Rohrschneider, R., & Whitefield, S. (2012). The strain of representation: How parties represent diverse voters in Western and Eastern Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRef
go back to reference Rohrschneider, R., & Whitefield, S. (2016a). The representation gap: Why ignoring Euroscepticism has opened the door for extremist parties. LSE’s EUROPP Blog. Retrieved June 17, 2016 from http://bit.ly/1VGQUU6. Rohrschneider, R., & Whitefield, S. (2016a). The representation gap: Why ignoring Euroscepticism has opened the door for extremist parties. LSE’s EUROPP Blog. Retrieved June 17, 2016 from http://​bit.​ly/​1VGQUU6.
go back to reference Rohrschneider, R., & Whitefield, S. (2016b). Responding to growing European Union- skepticism? The stances of political parties toward European integration in western and eastern Europe following the financial crisis. European Union Politics, 17(1), 138–161.CrossRef Rohrschneider, R., & Whitefield, S. (2016b). Responding to growing European Union- skepticism? The stances of political parties toward European integration in western and eastern Europe following the financial crisis. European Union Politics, 17(1), 138–161.CrossRef
go back to reference Sanders, D., Clarke, H. D., Stewart, M. C., & Whiteley, P. (2011). Downs, Stokes and the dynamics of electoral choice. British Journal of Political Science, 41(2), 287–314.CrossRef Sanders, D., Clarke, H. D., Stewart, M. C., & Whiteley, P. (2011). Downs, Stokes and the dynamics of electoral choice. British Journal of Political Science, 41(2), 287–314.CrossRef
go back to reference Schattschneider, E. E. (1942). Party government. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston. Schattschneider, E. E. (1942). Party government. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston.
go back to reference Schmitt, H., Hobolt, S. B., & Popa, S. A. (2015a). Does personalization increase turnout? Spitzenkandidaten in the 2014 European Parliament elections. European Union Politics, 16(3), 347–368.CrossRef Schmitt, H., Hobolt, S. B., & Popa, S. A. (2015a). Does personalization increase turnout? Spitzenkandidaten in the 2014 European Parliament elections. European Union Politics, 16(3), 347–368.CrossRef
go back to reference Schmitt, H., Popa, S. A., Hobolt, S. B., & Teperoglou, E. (2015b). European Parliament election study 2014, voter study. GESIS Data Archive, Cologne ZA5160 Data file Version 2.0.0. Schmitt, H., Popa, S. A., Hobolt, S. B., & Teperoglou, E. (2015b). European Parliament election study 2014, voter study. GESIS Data Archive, Cologne ZA5160 Data file Version 2.0.0.
go back to reference Schofield, N. (1993a). Political competitition and multiparty coalition governments. European Journal of Political Research, 23(1), 1–33.CrossRef Schofield, N. (1993a). Political competitition and multiparty coalition governments. European Journal of Political Research, 23(1), 1–33.CrossRef
go back to reference Schofield, N. J. (1993b). Party competition in a spatial model of coalition formation. In W. A. Barnett, M. J. Hinich, & N. J. Schofield (Eds.), Political economy. Institutions, competition, and representation (pp. 135–174). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Schofield, N. J. (1993b). Party competition in a spatial model of coalition formation. In W. A. Barnett, M. J. Hinich, & N. J. Schofield (Eds.), Political economy. Institutions, competition, and representation (pp. 135–174). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
go back to reference Schumpeter, J. A. (1942). Capitalism, socialism, and democracy. Manhattan: Harper and Row. Schumpeter, J. A. (1942). Capitalism, socialism, and democracy. Manhattan: Harper and Row.
go back to reference Stecker, C., & Tausenpfund, M. (2016). Multidimensional government-citizen congruence and satisfaction with democracy. European Journal of Political Research, 55(3), 492–511.CrossRef Stecker, C., & Tausenpfund, M. (2016). Multidimensional government-citizen congruence and satisfaction with democracy. European Journal of Political Research, 55(3), 492–511.CrossRef
go back to reference Stokes, D. E. (1963). Spatial models of party competition. American Political Science Review, 57(2), 368–377.CrossRef Stokes, D. E. (1963). Spatial models of party competition. American Political Science Review, 57(2), 368–377.CrossRef
go back to reference Stoll, H. (2011). Dimensionality and the number of parties in legislative elections. Party Politics, 17(3), 405–429.CrossRef Stoll, H. (2011). Dimensionality and the number of parties in legislative elections. Party Politics, 17(3), 405–429.CrossRef
go back to reference Thomassen, J. (2012). The blind corner of political representation. Representation, 48(1), 13–27.CrossRef Thomassen, J. (2012). The blind corner of political representation. Representation, 48(1), 13–27.CrossRef
go back to reference Thomassen, J., & Schmitt, H. (1997). Policy representation. European Journal of Political Research, 32(2), 165–184. Thomassen, J., & Schmitt, H. (1997). Policy representation. European Journal of Political Research, 32(2), 165–184.
go back to reference Treib, O. (2014). The voter says no, but nobody listens: Causes and consequences of the Eurosceptic vote in the 2014 European elections. Journal of European Public Policy, 21(10), 1541–1554.CrossRef Treib, O. (2014). The voter says no, but nobody listens: Causes and consequences of the Eurosceptic vote in the 2014 European elections. Journal of European Public Policy, 21(10), 1541–1554.CrossRef
go back to reference Van der Brug, W. (2004). Issue ownership and party choice. Electoral Studies, 23(2), 209–233.CrossRef Van der Brug, W. (2004). Issue ownership and party choice. Electoral Studies, 23(2), 209–233.CrossRef
go back to reference van der Brug, W., & van Spanje, J. (2009). Immigration, Europe and the ‘new’ cultural dimension. European Journal of Political Research, 48(3), 309–334.CrossRef van der Brug, W., & van Spanje, J. (2009). Immigration, Europe and the ‘new’ cultural dimension. European Journal of Political Research, 48(3), 309–334.CrossRef
go back to reference van der Eijk, C., & Franklin, M. N. (2004). Potential for contestation on European matters at national elections in Europe. In G. Marks & M. R. Steenbergen (Eds.), European Integration and Political Conflict (pp. 32–50). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef van der Eijk, C., & Franklin, M. N. (2004). Potential for contestation on European matters at national elections in Europe. In G. Marks & M. R. Steenbergen (Eds.), European Integration and Political Conflict (pp. 32–50). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef
go back to reference Williams, C., & Spoon, J. (2015). Differentiated party response: The effect of Euroskeptic public opinion on party positions. European Union Politics, 16(2), 176–193.CrossRef Williams, C., & Spoon, J. (2015). Differentiated party response: The effect of Euroskeptic public opinion on party positions. European Union Politics, 16(2), 176–193.CrossRef
Metadata
Title
Multidimensional incongruence and vote switching in Europe
Authors
Ryan Bakker
Seth Jolly
Jonathan Polk
Publication date
12-05-2018
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
Public Choice / Issue 1-2/2018
Print ISSN: 0048-5829
Electronic ISSN: 1573-7101
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-018-0555-z

Other articles of this Issue 1-2/2018

Public Choice 1-2/2018 Go to the issue