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About this book

This book presents natural hazards and risk--one of the fastest-growing and most relevant fields of pure and applied research within geosciences and environmental engineering—from a multi-disciplinary perspective. It examines principles, concepts, and paradigms derived from diverse research studies, and explains operational terms, materials, tools, techniques, and methods used in practice. Collecting the expertise of more than 60 scientists and expert practitioners from across Russia, this authoritative volume is ideal for the diverse range of researchers and professionals concerned with the interaction of natural hazards and the built environment.
Maximizes reader understanding of natural hazards research and risk analysis in Russia;
Explains relevance and application of primary tools and practices in risk study;
Clarifies similarities and differences in fundamental concepts and principles across the discipline;
Directs geologists, engineers, architects, planners, teachers, students, and others to authoritative sources.

Table of Contents


Chapter 1. Technogenesis and Natural Disasters

The paper scrutinizes technogenesis in the context of human industrial activity in natural resources development and the creation of social and economic infrastructure on the Earth. The rapidly growing antagonism between technogenesis and the society requires the elaboration of a new strategy of modern civilization development based on keeping the balance between the human economic activity and the environment protection.
Some problems arising from technogenesis development are analyzed, and it is shown how the environmentally friendly economic activity may be managed. As an example, the seismic and engineering geological zoning of Moscow is described, which was aimed at “fitting” items of the technosphere to the natural conditions and at optimizing the interaction between the engineering structures and the environment. The problems in surface and groundwater conservation, assessment of natural risks upon land development, as well as industrial and domestic waste treatment are discussed. The cases cited witness to the necessity of developing the scientifically grounded policy of human technogenic activity based on the principle of technogenesis-environment coevolution.
Victor Osipov, Nadezhda Rumyantseva

Chapter 2. Complications and Prospects of the Hydrogeological Substantiation of Drainage in Deep Tunnels

Currently, many automobile tunnels are being designed and put into operation in urban areas including Moscow. This is associated with the need of the city to unload the motorways in the absence of sufficient-free areas for the construction of land routes. Experience of operation has shown the expediency of building such facilities on the city territory. Several deep tunnels were commissioned in Moscow including the northwestern tunnel, 27 m deep and 3.1 km long.
The Alabian-Baltic tunnel has been under construction since 2006. A great difficulty in its operation is created by groundwater that seeps into the tunnel. In winter these leaks lead to icing on the road which can trigger accidents. Unfortunately, it has not been possible to completely seal the tunnel to the present day. All this determines the need for water drainage. However, closely located houses, many of which have already suffered from construction, as well as the passing subway tunnel, require careful justification for such solutions.
Currently, the most dangerous for the accident-free operation of the tunnel is the water inflow into it. Breakthroughs of water-saturated sands or the process of forced mass suffusion was observed in several sections. This process could manifest itself both as a sudden arrival of quicksands into the pit and breakthroughs of water-saturated sands through interbeds of clay soils. It was the main reason for the decompaction of the soil massif containing the tunnel, the anomalously large and uneven sediment of buildings, and the formation of dips.
A numerical hydrodynamic model was created within the framework of the work. The model analyzed various options for the organization of drainage, including the zero option (without drainage). It is shown that between the technologically altered level in the aquifer and the bottom of the tunnel, a significant difference in altitude remains, which leads to seepage of groundwater into the tunnel. Analysis of possible technical solutions to reduce water inflows in the tunnel has shown that a permissible option is a forced drainage inside the contour of the wall in the ground.
G. I. Batrak, I. A. Kostikova, I. A. Pozdnyakova, E. A. Karfidova, L. S. Toms

Chapter 3. Probabilistic Approach to Forecasting of the Risk Caused by Groundwater Contamination

In this chapter, a probabilistic approach to forecasting of the risk caused by groundwater contamination is considered. The general conceptual model submitted for consideration includes two parts: (1) a model of the impact of contaminated groundwater resulting from urban sources; and (2) a model of the impact of contaminated groundwater on the recipients. Examples of the probabilistic approach to forecasting of the risk of groundwater contamination are considered in the territories of the leaching fields of domestic wastewater, the gas station and radioactive waste repository. Stochastic modeling was used for risk forecasting. The probability of water intake contamination, damage to the population from contamination of drinking water, and the value of the risk were calculated.
Irina Galitskaya, Irina Pozdnyakova, Gleb Batrak, Leonid Toms, Alekcandr Palagushin

Chapter 4. Landslide and Seismic Monitoring Systems

The operative monitoring systems of landslides have been developed by Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience RAS (IEG RAS) for a number of large industrial objects and urban areas. The designed monitoring systems of geological hazards for the “Blue Stream” gas pipeline and for Sochi territory are the examples.
Alexander Ginzburg, Valentina Svalova, Alexey Nikolaev, German Postoev, Andrey Kazeev

Chapter 5. Early-Warning Landslide Monitoring System

Analysis of seismological phone changes will give possibility to elaborate early-warning system. Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience RAS (IEG RAS) has developed and delivered the “System monitoring acceleration induced on the upper part of the offshore oil and gas platforms” for deposits Lunskoye-A (LUN-A) and Piltun-Astokhskoye-B (PA-B) for Sakhalin-2 project. The system is intended to ensure the safety of the operation of these facilities.
Experience of the system creation was used for real-time early-warning landslide monitoring system construction. This system was successfully used for landslides monitoring of coastal slope of the river Yenisei.
Alexander Ginzburg, Valentina Svalova, Alexey Nikolaev, Anatoliy Manukin, Vladimir Savosin

Chapter 6. Problems in Forecasting Dangerous Processes and Phenomena on the Base of the Earth Remote Sensing Data

The usage of the Earth remote sensing data (RS) optimally contributes to the solution of problems in forecasting dangerous processes and phenomena. The method of radar interferometry is especially effective for solving such problems. Radar imagery, in fact, does not depend on the weather nor on the lack of sunlight. It enables to monitor displacements and deformations of the Earth’s surface at the highest level of accuracy and to determine the condition of buildings and constructions. The processed data of satellite radar imagery is used for creating maps fixing changes in the Earth’s surface and structures as of each imagery date in vector and raster formats, being accompanied by technical reports. In addition, maps of vertical and horizontal shifts can be compiled. The analysis of the received materials allows to determine dynamics and direction of processes and to forecast the dangerous situation development objectively.
Lately, due to the increased number of satellites conducting regular satellite imagery in the visible and infrared bands with high and ultrahigh spatial resolution, it became possible to monitor changes in the state of the Earth’s surface with a high degree of regularity. For example, the planet constellation of almost 200 small satellites provides imagery of every part of the Earth’s surface daily with high resolution. Such combination of imagery frequency, resolution, and capture is a fundamentally new stage in remote sensing, and such kind of imagery can be applied successfully to a wide range of tasks, including monitoring and predicting hazardous processes.
Sovzond has developed a technology for regular aerospace monitoring of potentially hazardous regions (e.g., mining areas), with the integrated application of satellite and aerial (from unmanned space vehicles) imagery data. The proposed methodology enables to identify areas with adverse engineering-geological factors, to assess the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors on the development of unfavorable processes.
M. A. Bolsunovsky

Chapter 7. Assessment and Mapping Geological Risk for the Future Subsurface Linear Construction in Moscow

Geological risk as the qualitative or quantitative measure of geological hazard or a complex of hazards established for a certain object in the form of possible absolute or relative economic losses (damage) is the function of affecting hazard(s) value and the vulnerability of engineering structure. The georisk analysis in urban areas is usually aimed at the existing urban infrastructure, whereas assessment of geological risk for future construction appears to be a new approach in risk analysis. In urban areas, the risk of probable losses for a particular engineering structure in the course of its construction and operation may be comparatively analyzed for different types of engineering geological conditions distinguished in the area proceeding from the assessment of geological hazards that affect the engineering structures, since the vulnerability of engineering structure to these geological hazards is taken as constant in this case. Upon this approach, the qualitative characteristics of possible damage from geological hazards within the area with engineering geological conditions of a certain type serve as the risk index. According to the developed procedure, the map of geological risk upon the construction and operation of shallow (20 m deep) tunnels was compiled to a scale of 1:100,000 for the territory of Moscow. The possible damage was assessed proceeding from the analysis of such hazards as groundwater and quicksand outburst in the construction pit, suffusion, and karst-suffosion processes affecting the building structures. Very high geological risk arises upon the construction and running tunnels in water-saturated sandy ground, whereas the low risk is identified for the tunnels running in low-permeable Jurassic clay.
Olga Eremina, Irina Kozlyakova, Oleg Mironov, Nadezda Anisimova, Irina Kozhevnikova

Chapter 8. Deep Extrusive Landslides; Peculiarities of Formation, Development, and Protection

The current study summarizes a vast body of knowledge encompassing an inventory of landslide cases, overview of mechanisms of landslide development, and slope stability assessments.
A new mechanism-based landslide classification is presented and discussed. The mechanism of formation of the limiting state in a soil mass during the preparation of the landslide is considered. The equations for assessment of a soil mass limited state prior landslide formation were obtained. Also the equation for calculation of a landslide slip surface depth was obtained, using slope morphological and soil strength parameters.
The article also contains scientific explanation of effective reinforcement of territories with deep block-type landslides. The suggested protection strategy bases on theoretical solutions of preparing of a destructive phase of landslide deformations, on taking into account mechanism peculiarities of deep block-type landslides, and also on investigation experience of such landslides in different engineering-geological conditions.
Andrey Kazeev, German Postoev

Chapter 9. The Research of Surface Runoff in Engineering Geological Zoning

In the continuation of the Moscow Project of geological mapping, the following works are carried out: at the mid-scale level – calculation of the network and the zone of influence of surface runoff, analysis of the stability of slopes, and the construction of an integrated map of engineering geological zoning taking into account the influence of surface runoff – and on a large scale, analysis of the distribution of tributaries and the growth of accumulation zones for the modern and buried (the roof of quaternary sediments) relief.
Ekaterina Karfidova, Gleb Batrak

Chapter 10. Assessment of Seismic Hazards for Extractive Installations of the Oil and Gas Complex on the Caspian Sea Shelf

At present time exploration and development of oil and gas fields on the shelf of the Caspian Sea is actively conducted. In turn, the water area of the Caspian Sea is earthquake-prone, and in the construction of oil and gas facilities it is necessary to assess the seismic hazards. In the article the calculation method used in seismic microzoning is considered in detail. The methodology of seismic influence calculation from possible centers of earthquakes is visually shown. The result of the work was a set of accelerograms, which can be used to calculate the seismic loads on the object.
I. G. Mindel, M. D. Kaurkin, V. V. Nesynov, D. O. Andreev

Chapter 11. Geodynamic Stability of Territories with Specially Important Engineering Objects

The presented research most fully characterizes the geological structure of the territories chosen for construction of important engineering facilities. The research consists of three blocks. The structural and compositional block characterizes a structure of the basement and the sedimentary cover, structural unconformities, and faults, which can be activated in new geodynamic conditions. The structural-geomorphological (neotectonic) block is aimed at defining the type, amplitudes, and development rates of the newest regional and local structures. The structural and geodynamic block includes the definition of geodynamic conditions and trends of the modern development of structures that could cause negative processes. The concept of geodynamic safety of the territories with environmentally hazardous objects, based on this research, has been developed.
Natalia Makarova, Vladimir Makeev, Tatyana Sukhanova, Irina Korobova

Chapter 12. Combined Measures on Providing Safety of Technogenic Objects Within the Mined Territories of Potassium Deposits in Perm Region, Russia

The paper covers a complex of protective measures providing safety during the construction and operation of potassium salt mines within the Solikamsk-Berezniki urban and industrial agglomeration in Perm region, Russia. At the municipal level, the protective measures imply the adoption of planning and administrative managerial decisions. At the local level, the programs of providing safety of mining works should be developed, the measures of engineering protection of engineering structures should be worked out, the monitoring network schemes should be substantiated, and the sets of special geological research should be performed. These works are aimed at minimizing risks of accidents and emergencies both at operating and projected objects.
Yu. A. Mamaev, S. V. Kozlovskiy, A. A. Yastrebov

Chapter 13. Geo-environmental Sustainability of the Arctic Area of the Russian Federation

The natural systems in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation have a high vulnerability. The most significant environmental problems in the Russian Arctic are mainly associated with the availability of impact territories of intensive economic activity. One of the main conditions of geo-environmental stability in this area is to maintain the existing permafrost conditions, which excludes the development of adverse cryogenic engineering-geological processes. The solution to the problem of security of the population in the special conditions of the Russian Arctic requires the use of environmentally safe and economically feasible innovative technologies and rehabilitation areas.
Vyacheslav Zaikanov, Irina Zaikanova, Lidia Matveeva, Tatiana Minakova

Chapter 14. Geo-environmental Zoning for Urban Planning and Design

Geo-environmental problems are caused by natural and anthropogenic factors, especially true for urbanized areas. The modern growing cities, with limited space, are accompanied by a steady trend of new construction “up and down” and increase the density of housing and reconstruction of the already developed city areas, which gives rise to conflict in geo-environment. This predetermines the new requirements to the planning of urban space. Geo-environmental zoning of the urban areas is based on geosystemic principle, is reflecting the territorial differentiation of urban environment condition in dynamics for different scenarios of urban design, and should be conducted at an early stage of design. This technology will help to choose the best option and justify the investment. Maps of geo-environmental zoning of the urban territory should be the basis for justifying design decisions and the placement of geo-environmental monitoring. Its use in urban design will contribute to the formation of environment favorable for human life and sustainable development of the city.
Ekaterina Buldakova, Vyacheslav Zaikanov, Tatiana Minakova

Chapter 15. Objective Methods for Compiling Integral Maps

Synthetic maps of integral natural and technogenic-natural hazard are used in various management procedures. The main possible goals are strategy planning for the territory development, decision-making for a placement or protection of infrastructure objects, and risk management.
A traditional approach provides map compiling as follows. At first, experts in every type of hazard compile maps for each hazard. As a rule, these maps show zones of various hazard intensities. When the total number of considered hazards is small, then it is possible to demonstrate all the hazards in one map. In other cases, some algorithm is applied to compute the integral index. The final map shows the space distribution of this index.
A popular method of numerical scores calculates the integral index as a sum of scores that are attached to each intensity level of each hazard. The main defect of this method is an arbitrariness and voluntarism of attached scores. Methods of agreement of experts’ private opinions do not solve the problem of objective content of the result. Another problem is the possible correlation of various hazardous processes. For example, if a group of source hazards has a similar genesis and, consequently, the positive correlation, the procedures described above will give a preference to this group.
The paper considers the following methods developed in IEG RAS:
The method of the unified legend for hazard maps provides a possibility of comparing maps of various hazards from the united point of view, especially for risk analysis. The economic criteria are used in this method instead of inner properties of the processes.
The method of Pareto optimum provides integral hazard maps with easy understandable legends. Multicriterion optimization finds the best or the worst areas according to source maps.
Method of optimal marks attaches to each point of map a set of digital marks that explain in the optimal way differences in the set of source zonal maps. The task is dual to the cluster analysis: to find the best digital estimation for many divisions of points into clusters instead of finding the best division of points with many digital characteristics into clusters.
The analysis of results is like the analysis of principal components. From the computation point of view, the procedure calculates optimal marks as a sum of scores that are attached to each intensity level of each hazard, but the scores reflect objective dependencies between data and not an arbitrariness of an expert.
The described approaches were applied by IEG RAS in various programs on safety of Russia, its regions, and Moscow megacity. The algorithms do not depend on the map’s scale. The resulting maps had scales from 1:10,000,000 to 1:2000
O. K. Mironov

Chapter 16. Suture Zones as Upper Crustal Seismogenerating Structures

For the upper crust seismicity, the tectonic nature of earthquakes plays an important role. The allocation of zones of origin of earthquake focus (OEF zones) should be based on the tracing and typification of seismogenerating structures (SGS), the main of which are the suture zones. Dangerous for the construction, SGS zones belong to the upper seismically active layer.
Sergei Nesmeyanov, Olga Voeykova

Chapter 17. Stochastic Modeling of Human-Induced Thermokarst and Natural Risk Assessment for Existing and Planned Engineering Structures

The aim of the present research is a stochastic modeling of initiated thermokarst developing along a linear structure and its impact risk assessment by thermokarst basing on the mathematical morphology of landscape approaches. Two versions of the models of the initiated thermokarst for linear structures are considered: the model of the initiated thermokarst 1.0 (linear variant) and the model of the initiated thermokarst 1.1 (zone variant). The research allows to make the following conclusions: Models of initiated thermokarst developing along linear structures (a linear and a zone variants) are created, and their empirical verification is done. Distribution laws for initiated thermokarst foci are obtained for the area of the linear structure influence, including the lognormal distribution of the foci areas and the exponential distribution of distances between the projections of the centers of foci into a linear structure. The mathematical landscape morphology approach allows us to estimate the thermokarst impact probability for linear structures.
A. S. Victorov, T. V. Orlov, V. N. Kapralova, O. N. Trapeznikova, S. A. Sadkov, A. V. Zverev

Chapter 18. Stochastic Modeling of Natural Lacustrine Thermokarst Under Stable and Unstable Climate

Many researches are devoted to the problem of lacustrine-thermokarst plain development. The purpose of this study is a stochastic modeling of the thermokarst plains’ pattern and development, primarily the morphological pattern of their landscapes. The bases of model creation are the approaches of mathematical morphology of landscape with wide use of random process theory. Studying territory type represents a slightly wavy subhorizontal surface with a predominance of different tundra or forest vegetation with the sprinkled lakes, without significant development of the erosion network. Several types of stochastic models were developed. These models were empirically verified at 16 sites all over cryolythozone. Theoretical statistical distributions of the lakes’ number on the randomly chosen site within lacustrine-thermokarst plains correspond to the Poisson distribution on the plots relatively homogenous by the geomorphological, geocryological, and landscape conditions and under various assumptions about the nature of development of the lacustrine-thermokarst plains; this is largely confirmed by empirical data. Theoretical statistical distributions of the thermokarst lake sizes within the lacustrine-thermokarst plains are different under various assumptions about the nature of development of the lacustrine-thermokarst plains on the plots relatively homogenous by the geomorphological, geocryological, and landscape conditions. The analysis of the empirical data shows that the observed distributions of the lakes’ number at randomly chosen site correspond to the Poisson distribution and the distributions of the thermokarst lake sizes in the overwhelming majority correspond to the lognormal distribution and do not agree with other types of distributions being investigated. The analysis leads to a conclusion in favor of a model based on the proportionality of the growth rate of the thermokarst lake size to the average heat loss density through the side surface in case of the synchronous start of the processes of thermokarst lake appearance for every plot.
A. S. Victorov, T. V. Orlov, V. N. Kapralova, O. N. Trapeznikova, S. A. Sadkov, A. V. Zverev

Chapter 19. Seismic-Ecological Monitoring of Seismic and Special Hazard Object

The paper presents generalized results of seismic-ecological monitoring from natural sources in the Russian Federation regions of different tectonic activities. The method is developed for estimating the stressed state of medium according to the energy characteristics of converted PS waves from distant earthquakes. The values of geodynamic indicators are assessed for the media of different tectonic activities, the main regularities of changes in the geodynamic environment are found, and the cyclicity of geodynamic indicators is revealed on the basis of long-term continuous monitoring. The influence of such external natural factor as distant catastrophic earthquakes on the change of geodynamic indicators of the medium’s stress state and the strengthening of seismic activity are revealed.
Oksana Popova, Vladimir Makeev, Michael Popov

Chapter 20. Landslide Risk Assessment, Management, and Reduction for City Territories

Geological and landslide risk management can be viewed as a series of events leading to landslide risk reduction, including risk analysis, risk assessment, risk mapping, vulnerability evaluation, the concept of acceptable risk, monitoring organization, engineering-technical methods, insurance, and others. This chapter describes the methodology for landslide risk assessment and mapping in urban areas. The construction of a landslide risk map in a territory of Moscow is proposed. Based on preliminary expert estimates, areas with high landslide risk are in the vicinity of the Moscow and Yauza Rivers, as well as in areas of contrasting relief along riverbeds of paleochannels in the city center. These areas may be considered “hot spots” on the risk map.
Valentina Svalova

Chapter 21. Mechanical-Mathematical Modeling for Landslide Processes

Mechanical-mathematical model of high viscous fluid was used for modeling of the matter movement on landslide slopes. Equation of continuity and approximated Navier-Stokes equation for slow motions in a thin layer of the matter were used. The results of modeling give a possibility to define the place of highest velocity on landslide surface, which could be the best place for monitoring post position. A model can be used for comparison of calculated and measured velocities of the matter and gives possibility to investigate some fundamental aspects of the matter movement on landslide slope.
Valentina Svalova

Chapter 22. Structural Transformations of Permafrost before the Formation of the Yamal Craters

This article deals with the genesis of the gas discharge funnel located 30 km south of the Bovanenkovskoye gas condensate field and named the Yamal crater. A new approach contains the theory of the formation of similar funnels due to the structural transformations of the frozen massif under the influence of gases coming from the decomposition of gas hydrates. The leading role of lakes in the formation of local zones of dissociation of gas hydrates was declared. The estimation of the pressure that is necessary for migration of fluids in frozen rocks and the explosion that formed the Yamal crater was carried out.
A. N. Khimenkov, D. O. Sergeev, Y. V. Stanilovskaya, A. N. Vlasov, D. B. Volkov-Bogorodsky, V. P. Merzlyakov, G. S. Tipenko

Chapter 23. Landslide Activity and Landslide Hazard in Geyser Valley (Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia)

Geyser Valley (valley of the Geysernaya River) is located on the territory of Kronotsky State Natural Biosphere Reserve (Kamchatka, Russia) and is one of the most unique nature objects in Russia. The valley is known by numerous geysers and other hydrothermal manifestations and is a tourist attraction. A big landslide formed on June 3, 2007, in Geyser Valley. It dammed up the river affecting more than half of all thermal objects. Some of them were destroyed; some changed their regime.
Formation and the displacement of landslide in the left side of the Geyser Valley occurred in the upper part of Vodopadniy creek. According to witnesses the main displacement looked flow-like movement of ground masses and lasted for 2.5 min. As a result of slope deformations, a landslide tongue was formed with length up to 3.4 km and width 800–900 m in the upper part and 0.2–0.4 km in the lower part. The mechanism of displacement of landslide was complex. Comparative analysis of models of relief after and before sliding has shown that the whole volume of landslide deposits is 22.6 million m3 (including secondary block slide).
Different-scale landslides in Geyser Valley occurred before. Many slope failures induced by cyclone Elsa in 1981 were noted. The mapping of the area under consideration made it possible to identify over 650 landslides, rockfalls, and other slope phenomena. On January 4, 2014, large-scale rock avalanche also formed in the left side of the Geysernaya River valley.
The Geysernaya River cuts massif composed by lacustrine-volcanic hydrothermally altered deposits. These rocks contain a large number of clay minerals that are broken by tectonic and sedimentary fractures and unstable to humidifying. Geological and geomorphologic factors such as high seismicity, contrast relief, steep slopes, rainfalls, intense snowmelt and inflow of thermal water also control formation of different slope processes – landslides, rockfalls, taluses, debris flows, mudflows, etc.
Slope displacement in the region is very intense that can be hazardous for tourists and also causes damage to geysers and hot spring regime.
Oleg V. Zerkal, Irina P. Gvozdeva

Chapter 24. The History of Slope Evolution – Primary Cause of its Modern Instability (by Example of the “Vorobyovy Gory” Landslide, Moscow)

Landslide processes on the Moscow city territory have been studied more than a hundred years. The study area is located in the central part of the Vorobyovy Gory, covering the area from the Moscow observation deck to the Moscow metro bridge. The length of the visually defined landslides is up to several hundred meters, and the visible width along the axial part of the landslide is more than 300 m. The volume of soil involved in the landslide deformation is estimated as 2 million m3. The surface slope, the elevation of which reaches 60–70 m, has a typical landslide terrain. The deposits of Carboniferous, Jurassic, Cretaceous, and Quaternary systems are presented in structure section.
This paper deals with the nature, mechanism, and spatial distribution of landslide processes on the Vorobyovy Gory in Moscow, based on new factual data with the consideration of the regional geological history.
This material made it possible to draw the following conclusions. Firstly, the area involved in landslide processes on the Vorobyovy Gory is characterized by larger values in terms of area and depth than it previously assumed. In the head part, where the displacement zone is located at the depths of 80–100 m, the deformations, confined to the lower part of the Jurassic deposits, have a block character. Secondly, we can talk about a combined mechanism of the development of large-scale landslide massif “Vorobyovy Gory”, including plastic flow with the forming of shaft bulging, crash with throwing, block offsets, and other types of deformations. Both primary and secondary displacements can be distinguished in this landslide massif.
Olga S. Barykina, Oleg V. Zerkal, Eugene N. Samarin, Irina P. Gvozdeva

Chapter 25. Application of Fractal Theory Methods for Seismogram Analysis

A variety of quantitative and qualitative methods and approaches are being used in risk assessment. One of these approaches is based on the application of the toolkit of nonlinear dynamics, theory of fractals, and multifractals.
The theory of fractals and multifractals is now widely used to describe properties of self-similarity and complex scaling properties of various processes. These studies showed that not all these processes can be characterized by a single value of the fractal dimension. Only one value of the Hausdorff dimension or scaling index is needed for quantitative description of fractals. This value describes the persistence of the geometry or statistical characteristics when the scale is being changed.
The studies on application of fractal analysis for assessing data sets of different nature have shown good results. The possibility to receive data that characterize the dynamic processes in terms of their scale properties gives us a hope that these methods combined with the other ones will allow us to explore the seismic processes more comprehensively and to estimate quantitatively the probability of seismic events within a short-term forecast.
Nikolay A. Makhutov, Rasim S. Akhmetkhanov, Dmitry O. Reznikov

Chapter 26. The New Method of the Potentially Hazardous Geodynamic Active Zone Mapping

Authors developed GIS methods to detect the azimuthal disagreements of zones at surfaces of different ages of key horizons for the mapping of the subhorizontal geodynamic active zones at the platforms. The method is based on the analysis of digital elevation models to detect areas of an azimuthal and angle falling disagreement zones. Graphics of these zones indicate a heterogeneous structure of the key horizons, which is the reason for the development of subhorizontal geodynamic active zones. It is assumed that the greater the disagreement different age deformation, the higher the probability of the development of these zones which are hazardous to intensify geological processes.
Ekaterina Karfidova, Vladimir Makeev


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