(No) Wind of Change?: German-Russian Relations in the Post-Merkel Era

Due to its size, geographical location and history, Germany plays a special role in European-Russian relations. The past decade’s bilateral relations have been characterised by a selective, interest-driven foreign policy, coupled with a leading role among EU Member States to forge a common position towards Moscow. German-Russian relations cover in particular issues of energy supply (Nord Stream 2) and bilateral trade relations, which include an export focus on machinery, cars and electrical engineering. While after the fall of the Berlin Wall on 9 November 1989 relations were said to be built on mutual values and goals, differences have become more apparent over time. Examples of this are the 2008 war in Georgia, annexation of Crimea in 2014, armed conflict in the Donbas region and open support for the Lukashenko regime following the Belarus protests of 2020. Moreover, incidents such as the August 2019 murder of a Chechen asylum seeker in Berlin, the poisoning of Alexei Navalny and subsequent destructive measures by the Russian authorities, as well as numerous cyberattacks on members of the Bundestag, have brought mutual relations to a new low point. Last but not least, the autumn of 2021 marks a possible turning point on the German-Russian agenda, as Angela Merkel’s term as chancellor runs out after more than 16 years of cooperative and confrontational policies with her counterpart Vladimir Putin. However, whether the new chancellor and coalition government will lead to a policy change towards Russia seems rather unlikely, given the relationship’s continuing oscillation between dialogue and confrontation.