Numerical Analysis of Tailings Dam Break Based on GDEM-GAVA

This study provides a predictive analysis of the potential disaster trajectory and extent of a tailings dam in Guangdong Province using GDEM-GAVA technology. Tailings dam failures are complex events characterised by high non-linearity and unpredictability. The research results show that the tailings debris flow followed an inverted V-shaped pattern. The tailings sand travelled approximately 800 m down the valley, with the furthest edge reaching 1387 m and the widest cross-valley spread at 90 m. The average deposition thickness was approximately 6 m and the peak velocity of the debris during erosion reached approximately 35 m per second. In particular, the debris flow engulfed and eroded significant parts of the processing plant, including the main plant area, the washing and screening workshop and the thickener basin. It also affected the storage area, covering approximately 10,000 square m. These findings provide an important scientific basis for early warning and risk assessment of potential tailings dam failures.