Skip to main content
Top

2021 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

On an Approach to Evaluation of Health Care Programme by Markov Decision Model

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

In this paper, we consider the evaluation of periodic screening programme for woman breast cancer and formulate the model as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). We convert a POMDP with finite state, observation state and action spaces to an equivalent completely observable MDP with continuous state and finite action spaces. By this approach, we have an optimal policy from dynamic programming (DP) equation in an equivalent MDP, but we focus on considering the evaluation in scenarios of periodic screening for participants with silent condition of breast cancer and seeking an answer which programme is better than others for themselves. The aim of this paper is, by using the data sets based on cancer registration and estimated parameters of survival rates and other ratios related to screening and diagnoses in Japan, to evaluate some scenarios of breast cancer screening programme in POMDP.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literature
1.
go back to reference Bäuerle, N., Rieder, U.: Markov Decision Processes with Applications to Finance. Springer, Heidelberg (2011)CrossRef Bäuerle, N., Rieder, U.: Markov Decision Processes with Applications to Finance. Springer, Heidelberg (2011)CrossRef
2.
go back to reference Bertsekas, D.P., Shreve, S.E.: Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case. Academic Press, New York (1978)MATH Bertsekas, D.P., Shreve, S.E.: Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case. Academic Press, New York (1978)MATH
3.
go back to reference Drummond, M.F., Sculpher, M.J., Claxton, K., Stoddart, G.L., Torrance, G.W.: Methods for the Economic Evaluation of Health Care Programmes. Oxford University Press, Oxford (2015) Drummond, M.F., Sculpher, M.J., Claxton, K., Stoddart, G.L., Torrance, G.W.: Methods for the Economic Evaluation of Health Care Programmes. Oxford University Press, Oxford (2015)
4.
go back to reference Dynkin, E.B., Yushkevich, A.A.: Controlled Markov Processes. Springer, New York (1979)CrossRef Dynkin, E.B., Yushkevich, A.A.: Controlled Markov Processes. Springer, New York (1979)CrossRef
5.
go back to reference Hamashima, C., et al.: The Japanese guidelines for breast cancer screening. Jpn. J. Clin. 46, 482–492 (2016) Hamashima, C., et al.: The Japanese guidelines for breast cancer screening. Jpn. J. Clin. 46, 482–492 (2016)
6.
go back to reference Hinderer, K., Rieder, U., Stieglitz, M.: Dynamic Optimization: Deterministic and Stochastic Models. Springer, Cham (2016)CrossRef Hinderer, K., Rieder, U., Stieglitz, M.: Dynamic Optimization: Deterministic and Stochastic Models. Springer, Cham (2016)CrossRef
7.
go back to reference Hori, M., Matsuda, T., Shibata, A., Katanoda, K., Sobue, T., Nishimoto, H.: Cancer incidence and incidence rates in Japan in 2009: a study of 32 population-based cancer registries for the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan (MCIJ) project. Jpn. J. Clin. 45, 884–891 (2015) Hori, M., Matsuda, T., Shibata, A., Katanoda, K., Sobue, T., Nishimoto, H.: Cancer incidence and incidence rates in Japan in 2009: a study of 32 population-based cancer registries for the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan (MCIJ) project. Jpn. J. Clin. 45, 884–891 (2015)
8.
go back to reference Howlader, N., Noone, A.M., Krapcho, M., Miller, D., Brest, A., Yu, M., Ruhl, J., Tatalovich, Z., Mariotto, A., Lewis, D.R., Chen, H.S., Feuer, E.J., Cronin, K.A. (eds.) SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1975–2017. National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, based on November 2019 SEER data submission, posted to the SEER web site, April 2020. https://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2017/ Howlader, N., Noone, A.M., Krapcho, M., Miller, D., Brest, A., Yu, M., Ruhl, J., Tatalovich, Z., Mariotto, A., Lewis, D.R., Chen, H.S., Feuer, E.J., Cronin, K.A. (eds.) SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1975–2017. National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, based on November 2019 SEER data submission, posted to the SEER web site, April 2020. https://​seer.​cancer.​gov/​csr/​1975_​2017/​
10.
go back to reference Kasahara, Y., Tsuji, I., Ohnuki, K., Koibuchi, Y., Ban, K., Furukawa, J., Masuoka, H., Murata, Y., Morita, T., Yoshida, M., Rai, Y.: Annual report 2013 on breast cancer screening in Japan. J. Jpn. Assoc. Breast Cancer Screen. 23, 84–97 (2014)CrossRef Kasahara, Y., Tsuji, I., Ohnuki, K., Koibuchi, Y., Ban, K., Furukawa, J., Masuoka, H., Murata, Y., Morita, T., Yoshida, M., Rai, Y.: Annual report 2013 on breast cancer screening in Japan. J. Jpn. Assoc. Breast Cancer Screen. 23, 84–97 (2014)CrossRef
11.
go back to reference Madadi, M., Zhang, S.: Cost-effectiveness analysis of breast cancer mammography screening policies considering uncertainty in women’s adherence. In: Kong, N., Zhang, S. (eds.) Decision Analytics and Optimization in Disease Prevention and Treatment, pp. 223–240. Wiley, New York (2018)CrossRef Madadi, M., Zhang, S.: Cost-effectiveness analysis of breast cancer mammography screening policies considering uncertainty in women’s adherence. In: Kong, N., Zhang, S. (eds.) Decision Analytics and Optimization in Disease Prevention and Treatment, pp. 223–240. Wiley, New York (2018)CrossRef
12.
go back to reference Maillart, L.M., Ivy, J.S., Ransom, S., Diehl, K.: Assessing dynamic breast cancer screening policies. Oper. Res. 56, 1411–1427 (2008)CrossRef Maillart, L.M., Ivy, J.S., Ransom, S., Diehl, K.: Assessing dynamic breast cancer screening policies. Oper. Res. 56, 1411–1427 (2008)CrossRef
13.
go back to reference Monahan, G.E.: A survey of partially observable Markov decision processes: theory, models, and algorithms. Manag. Sci. 28, 1–16 (1982)MathSciNetCrossRef Monahan, G.E.: A survey of partially observable Markov decision processes: theory, models, and algorithms. Manag. Sci. 28, 1–16 (1982)MathSciNetCrossRef
14.
go back to reference Otten, J.W.M., Witteveen, A., Vliegen, I.M.H., Siesling, S., Timmer, J.B., IJzerman, M.J.: Stratified breast cancer follow-up using a partially observable Markov decision process. In: Boucherie,R., van Dijk, N. (eds.) Markov Decision Processes in Practice, pp. 223–244. Springer, New York (2017) Otten, J.W.M., Witteveen, A., Vliegen, I.M.H., Siesling, S., Timmer, J.B., IJzerman, M.J.: Stratified breast cancer follow-up using a partially observable Markov decision process. In: Boucherie,R., van Dijk, N. (eds.) Markov Decision Processes in Practice, pp. 223–244. Springer, New York (2017)
15.
go back to reference Rieder, U.: Structural results for partially observed control models. ZOR Methods Models Oper. Res. 35, 473–490 (1991)MathSciNetCrossRef Rieder, U.: Structural results for partially observed control models. ZOR Methods Models Oper. Res. 35, 473–490 (1991)MathSciNetCrossRef
16.
go back to reference Sauré, A., Puterman, M.L.: Advance patient appointment scheduling. In: Boucherie, R., van Dijk, N. (eds.) Markov Decision Processes in Practice, pp. 245–168. Springer, New York (2017)CrossRef Sauré, A., Puterman, M.L.: Advance patient appointment scheduling. In: Boucherie, R., van Dijk, N. (eds.) Markov Decision Processes in Practice, pp. 245–168. Springer, New York (2017)CrossRef
17.
go back to reference Siebert, U., Alagoz, O., Bayoumi, A.M., Jahn, B., Owens, D.K., Cohen, D.J., Kuntz, K.M.: State-transition modeling: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM modeling good research practices task force-3. Value Health 15, 812–820 (2012)CrossRef Siebert, U., Alagoz, O., Bayoumi, A.M., Jahn, B., Owens, D.K., Cohen, D.J., Kuntz, K.M.: State-transition modeling: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM modeling good research practices task force-3. Value Health 15, 812–820 (2012)CrossRef
18.
go back to reference Steimle, L.N., Denton, B.T.: Markov decision processes for screening and treatment of chronic diseases. In: Boucherie, R., van Dijk, N. (eds.) Markov Decision Processes in Practice, pp. 189–222. Springer, New York (2017)CrossRef Steimle, L.N., Denton, B.T.: Markov decision processes for screening and treatment of chronic diseases. In: Boucherie, R., van Dijk, N. (eds.) Markov Decision Processes in Practice, pp. 189–222. Springer, New York (2017)CrossRef
19.
go back to reference Suzuki, A., Kuriyama, S., Kawai, M., Amari, M., Takeda, M., Ishida, T., Ohnuki, K., Nishino, Y., Tsuji, I., Shibuya, D., Ohuchi, N.: Age-specific interval breast cancers in Japan: estimation of the proper sensitivity of screening using a population-based cancer registry. Cancer Sci. 99, 2264–2267 (2008)CrossRef Suzuki, A., Kuriyama, S., Kawai, M., Amari, M., Takeda, M., Ishida, T., Ohnuki, K., Nishino, Y., Tsuji, I., Shibuya, D., Ohuchi, N.: Age-specific interval breast cancers in Japan: estimation of the proper sensitivity of screening using a population-based cancer registry. Cancer Sci. 99, 2264–2267 (2008)CrossRef
20.
go back to reference Tunc, S., Alagoz, O., Chhatwal, J., Burnside, E.S.: Using finite-horizon Markov decision processes for optimizing post-manmography diagnostic decisions. In: Kong, N., Zhang, S. (eds.) Decision Analytics and Optimization in Disease Prevention and Treatment, pp. 183–200. Wiley, New York (2018)CrossRef Tunc, S., Alagoz, O., Chhatwal, J., Burnside, E.S.: Using finite-horizon Markov decision processes for optimizing post-manmography diagnostic decisions. In: Kong, N., Zhang, S. (eds.) Decision Analytics and Optimization in Disease Prevention and Treatment, pp. 183–200. Wiley, New York (2018)CrossRef
22.
go back to reference Zhang, J., Denton, B.T.: Partially observable Markov decision processes for prostate cancer screening, surveillance, and treatment: a budgeted sampling approximation method. In: Kong, N., Zhang, S. (eds.) Decision Analytics and Optimization in Disease Prevention and Treatment, pp. 201–222. Wiley, New York (2018)CrossRef Zhang, J., Denton, B.T.: Partially observable Markov decision processes for prostate cancer screening, surveillance, and treatment: a budgeted sampling approximation method. In: Kong, N., Zhang, S. (eds.) Decision Analytics and Optimization in Disease Prevention and Treatment, pp. 201–222. Wiley, New York (2018)CrossRef
Metadata
Title
On an Approach to Evaluation of Health Care Programme by Markov Decision Model
Author
Masayuki Horiguchi
Copyright Year
2021
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-76928-4_18

Premium Partner