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2011 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

8. On Model-Choice

Author : George Christakos

Published in: Integrative Problem-Solving in a Time of Decadence

Publisher: Springer Netherlands

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Abstract

In the course of integrative problem solving (IPS), in the broad sense, investigators encounter a plethora of models representing aspects of the real-world that seem relevant to the solution of the problem at hand. These models (mathematical or otherwise, analytical or computational) are characterized by a varying degree of complexity and fundamentality. One cannot be perfectly sure which model is the best one for the situation, in the same way that one cannot know absolutely in a metaphysical sense. This was, in fact, Plato’s philosophical perspective: ultimate reality (or pure forms; see Section 2.2.4) is too perfect to be knowable by humans.

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Plato’s cave is probably the most famous cave in the history of philosophical thought.

One wonders what the postmodern perspective would be concerning Item b. As noted earlier, by poignantly ignoring knowledge obtained in the past, the postmodern world has turned into sort of a black hole.

More details are given in Section 8.3.2.

See, also, Section 9.4.1.

This perspective is closely linked to Occam’s razor, Section 8.2.3 that follows.

Also known as Ockham’s razor.

Many authors believe that the exact meaning of the term “reasonable” was not made sufficiently clear by Harold Jeffreys.

To take a layperson’s example, let \( {\chi_{p_{j}}} \)and S _q represent, respectively, the statements “The man will not get pregnant,” and “The man was taking birth control pills,” respectively. The probability of \( {\chi_{p_{j}}} \) is already very high, and the addition of S _q will not increase the probability any further.

For the probabilities of Eq. (8.8) to make sense in the integrative model-choice setting of Eq. (8.7), the corresponding entities \( ({\chi_{{p}_j}} ,\ S_{q}) \), must be substantively relevant; i.e., the relevance of the entities is based on natural causation rather than mere correlations. Otherwise said, technical model efficiency takes a back seat to physical model fidelity, in which case substantive relevance is an essential component of stochastic confirmation (conditions for a dataset to provide sound evidence for, or confirm, a model assertion, prediction, etc.). Also, when using S _q to derive conditional probabilities in Eq. (8.8) the investigator should keep in mind the metalanguage issues discussed in Section 1.2.3.4 and elsewhere in the book.

It should be noticed that, instead of the convariance another depedence function could be also used, like the space–time variogram or structure function.

I.e., to “leave all else to the gods”; Odes, Book I, Ode IX: 9 by Quintus Horatius Flaccus (65-8 BC).

This was General Colin Powell’s doctrine, as the readers may recall.

Congregation for the Propagation of the Faith.

The works of these feminist theorists, who are active mainly in academic environments, must be sharply distinguished from endeavors with very different objectives, such as the scientific study of feminine conditions (social, biological, etc.) and the women’s emancipation from male domination. Instead, radical feminists place ideological belief in the progress of women above truth, justice, equality, fairness, and scientific methodology, and they often claim to speak on behalf of all women.

I.e., “one hand washes the other” or “the favor for the favor.” Attributed to Petronius.

Brought to power by uninspired voters, some argue.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100017393/

The glory of sons is their fathers. Typical is the case of the “star” professor whose career is built by his papa professor’s network (papa knows best). The “star” conveniently obtains his doctorate in papa’s institute and co-authors several of papa’s publications. Papa’s network takes care of everything, and the “star” does not need to produce any original research worth the large amounts of funding he receives.

“We used to have actresses trying to become stars; now we have stars trying to become actresses.”

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Title: On Model-Choice
Author: George Christakos
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Book: Integrative Problem-Solving in a Time of Decadence
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-9889-4

Electronic ISBN: 978-90-481-9890-0

Copyright Year: 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9890-0_8