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2017 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

On the Asymmetry of Economic Cycles

Authors : Valentin Sokolov, Tessaleno Devezas, Svetlana Rumyantseva

Published in: Industry 4.0

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This paper offers a brief review of economic cycle theories, pointing out the key parameters that describe their dynamic behavior, and proposes a model of asymmetric economic cycles. The model is based on the assumption that economic cycles are non-equilibrium processes characteristic of complex open-ended systems and uses two different see-saw-like sine functions in its construction: an additive version and a multiplicative version. An empirical verification of the model is presented for the GDP cyclic dynamics for several countries and the asymmetries observed on a global scale. For some countries we have also examined the asymmetric behavior for other economic variables, like energy production and unemployment. Conclusions are drawn about the suitability of the model to forecast economic cyclic dynamics.

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Footnotes
1
In Norway there is complete independence of the internal electricity market from oil and gas production: about 97 % of all electricity generation in Norway comes from hydropower. (Source: US Energy Information Administration. Norway, April 28, 2014 p.10). Moreover there is technological and institutional diversification of the sector, allowing to Norwegian companies to be involved in projects of various levels of technological complexity (from Sakhalin and the North Sea to Angola) and use small and medium-sized companies with an annual turn-over below10 million dollars. Many of them are supplying a wide range of cost effective and flexible quality products and services to the global market. (Sources: Norwegian Petroleum Technology: A success story. Editor H. Keilen. Norwegian Academy of Technological Sciences (NTVA) in co-operation with Offshore Media Group and INTSOK. 2005; The Norwegian oil field service analysis 2013. EYGM Limited, 2014).
 
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Metadata
Title
On the Asymmetry of Economic Cycles
Authors
Valentin Sokolov
Tessaleno Devezas
Svetlana Rumyantseva
Copyright Year
2017
Book
Industry 4.0

Print ISBN: 978-3-319-49603-0

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-49604-7

Copyright Year: 2017

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49604-7_4