9. Operational Voyage Planning and Verification of Initial Voyage Planning

This chapter presents results of operational planning phase. Simulations of the vessels’ voyage were carried out in accordance with the data set at the stage of initial voyage planning and scheduling. Because operational planning phase is closely related to administrative decisions of the NSR Administration Headquarters and their organizational units, the author dealt with this phase only in aspect of assessing possibility of reaching goal of the voyage and route calculation using publicly available MIZ-type ice maps in ESRI Shape and KMZ formats published by NIC in the USA. They were used to verify the effectiveness of initial voyage planning system. The model of the operational planning system was presented in the form of the scheme, which consisted of numerous partial procedures. Implementation of partial procedures made it possible to obtain information necessary to take decisions. Selected partial procedures were described in the chapter. The visualization procedure for spatial constraints should be implemented using GIS software. This enables simultaneous display of many georeferenced files same time. Then, one can visualize on one screen borders of the land, lines of depth restrictions, limits of ice concentration and a network of suggested routes with indicated probability of their repeatability in next year. If network of suggested routes and depth limits are used, that contain requirements for safe depth limits for a particular vessel, the bathymetric map does not need to be continuously visualized. Routing procedure was based on choosing sections that were of highest probability of route repeatability in the future. It should lead through expected transit ice-free zone. Determining the route variant is part of decision-making activities. The procedure for the quality assessment of a designated section or the entire route variant concerns the determination of the value of the quality indicator of individual sections or the entire route variant and is described in Chap. 2. The decision module for the evaluation of the results of the decision system model is based on different criteria than the route designing criteria. At this stage, it must be determined whether the results meet the initial assumptions and whether it is possible or desirable to carry out a new voyage plan/schedule. Hence, the answer to very general question is whether decision-maker seems to have a potentially different route option or whether unequivocal assessment of passage feasibility has been received. A question regarding desirability of changing route determination criterion will take place if, with current requirements for reaching destination successfully, it will not be possible to find satisfactory route option or it was not possible to set such route. Change in the criterion will be related to lowering of quality indicator, i.e. put higher probability of failure to meet voyage objective and thus acceptance of higher travel costs. This may lead to imposing a higher price for the transport services (freight) offered. Attention was paid to the ambiguity of ice conditions given by sources of information. In a situation when one deal with one-day new ice forms or young ice, there is uncertainty about the accuracy of ice maps. Reaching the goal of voyage, which was performance of two consecutive transit voyages by the NSR independently by a vessel without ice strengthening without use of expensive icebreaker services, required a precise date of departure in the time frame of nine days at the stage of initial voyage planning, i.e. long-term voyage planning. Based on value of total probability factor for given date of beginning of voyage in ice-free conditions for particular parts of voyage (eastward and westward), failure, difficulties and additional costs in order to achieve destination and achieve intended goal of two consecutive voyages could be predicted.