Optimal Renewal and Electrification Strategy for Commercial Car Fleets in Germany

In this paper we model the uncertainty inherent in oil, electricity, and battery prices, in order to find the optimal renewal strategy for transport fleets in Germany from a car fleet operator’s perspective. We present a comprehensive statistical model of total operating costs for the usage of light duty vehicles in the transport industry. The model takes into consideration current and future power train technologies, such as internal combustion and electric engines. The framework allows for the calculation of sensitivities of the relevant explanatory variables (fuel price, interest rate, inflation rate, economic lifetime, subsidy/tax policies, and economic development). We also calculate and evaluate relevant diffusion scenarios for commercially used e-vehicles.