12. Partisanship and Turnout in the 2024 General Election

The chapter delves into the factors that influenced voter turnout in the 2024 general election, with a particular focus on the role of partisanship. It reveals that Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) supporters were less likely to vote, while Democratic Party for the People (DPP) supporters were more likely to vote compared to Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) supporters. This pattern was much weaker in the 2021 election, suggesting that the electoral context and party performance played a significant role in shaping voter behavior. The analysis shows that LDP supporters were dissatisfied with the Kishida Fumio cabinet and a major scandal involving the misuse of campaign funds, leading to a sense of alienation and demobilization. In contrast, DPP supporters were strongly attracted to their party's leader and ideological positions, which mobilized them to vote. The chapter also examines municipality-level data to evaluate the overall turnout change and its association with the vote shares of the LDP and DPP. The findings highlight the importance of partisanship in shaping voter turnout and electoral behavior, even in the era of declining turnout.