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Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft

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12-12-2016 | Aufsätze

Party system factors and the formation of minority governments in Central and Eastern Europe

A Qualitative Comparative Analysis

Author: Dr. Dorothea Keudel-Kaiser

Published in: Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft | Issue 3-4/2016

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Abstract

The formation of governments without a majority in parliament is a counterintuitive, albeit empirically relevant phenomenon: Minority governments make up about one-third of all governments in Europe. Yet minority governments in Central and Eastern Europe have hardly been studied. By means of a Qualitative Comparative Analysis, this article analyses the interplay of party system factors leading to the formation of minority governments in selected Central and Eastern European Countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Slovak Republic and Romania) from the early 1990 s up to 2010. The interplay of a strong bifurcation of the party systems with a high percentage of parties excluded from coalition building or a lack of parties sharing the main policy positions turns out to be influential.

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A comment on the book review on this monograph (Keudel-Kaiser 2014), published by Anna Fruhstorfer in this journal (2015).

The reviewer criticises the partly insufficient presentation of the state of research (“die stellenweise zu kurz geratene Behandlung des Forschungsstandes”). Given the deep and detailed description of the research context, this criticism is surprising. It appears, in my view, unjustified. This becomes clear from the example the reviewer cites to support her criticism: She complains that a central contribution (“zentraler Beitrag”) of coalition research is missing (“Puzzles of Government Formation. Coalition theory and deviant cases”, Abingdon; New York: Routledge/ECPR Studies in European Political Science, 2011). But I refer explicitly to this anthology in the chapter on the state of research (Keudel-Kaiser 2014, S. 35). The underlying error: The reviewer refers to the book review (Bäck 2012) instead of to the book itself – and thus mistakenly cites Bäck as the author of the book (instead of Andeweg, De Winter, and Dumont et al. as editors).

See, for example, van Roozendaal (1992); Crombez (1996); Grofman et al. (1996); Laver and Shepsle (1996).

A number of studies look at the interaction of party system stability and government stability (for example, Bakke and Sitter 2005; Tavits 2008). Many are based on Mair’s (1997) model of party government (for example, Toole 2000; Müller-Rommel 2005). The most detailed studies devoted to the stability of coalition governments are those by Grotz and Weber (Grotz 2007; Grotz and Weber 2010, 2011, 2012). See also Savage (2013b).

Nikolenyi (2003) performs a study looking at one single case of minority government formation (Czech Republic 1998).

Some interesting attempts to combine different research strategies have recently been started, such as the project “Puzzles of Government Formation. Coalition theory and deviant cases”, edited by Andeweg et al. (2011). The researchers use the results of statistical models on government formation processes in Western Europe to identify deviant cases. In a second step, these deviant cases are analysed in detail through process tracing. Another example is the study on governmental participation of Green parties by Bäck and Dumont (2006), who combine different types of statistical analysis with a QCA.

For a detailed disussion, see Keudel-Kaiser (2014), p. 40 et seq. For a discussion of the effect of electoral systems on the party system, see Beichelt (1998); Tiemann (2006); Harfst (2011).

Although Slovenia is not a “consensus democracy” in the classic sense (Lijphart 1999), Slovenian politics after the regime change was marked by consensus-oriented politics. This was reflected in the party system: Although the party system was from the beginning fragmented and divided into the (old) centre-left parties on one side and the (new) centre-right parties on the other, this divide never hampered the political parties from building broad coalitions across ideological lines (Bertelsmann Stiftung (Ed.) 2003; Fink-Hafner 2006, pp. 203 and 211; Keudel-Kaiser 2014, p. 41).

This is, for example, true for the factor “fragmentation”, that is to say “the number and relative strength of the parties within parliaments” (Dodd 1976, p. 62). The distribution of the effective number of parliamentary parties (measured by the Laakso and Taagepera (1979) index) for the cases included in this study shows that minority governments occur most often in moderately fragmented party systems. But the same is true for minimal winning and surplus governments. All three types of government most frequently exhibit a degree of fragmentation between three and five.

While some state that there is no significant effect of a high seat share of “extremist” or “anti-system” parties on the formation of minority governments (see, for example, Strøm 1990; Mitchell and Nyblade 2008), others state the opposite (Martin and Stevenson 2001).

In their analysis of government formation in Western Europe that includes the variable “existence of an anti-system party”, Budge and Keman (1990, p. 72) discuss the question of “what constitutes a significant party.” As a guideline, they refer to Sartori’s (1976) suggestion that significant parties “are those which either influence the formation of governments or, if excluded from government, are too large to ignore.” For their own work, the authors decide to use a threshold of 5%: “After considering particular cases in each country, we decided that a general rule would operate quite well and accordingly defined significant parties as those with over 5 per cent of legislative seats at any stage in the post-war period” (Budge and Keman 1990, p. 72). They admit that this definition is “slightly arbitrary” (Budge and Keman 1990, p. 72).

For details, see Keudel-Kaiser (2014), pp. 72–73.

For a detailed discussion, also on the term “cleavage” and related terms, see Keudel-Kaiser (2014), pp. 65–66.

Grzymala-Busse (2001). See also Kitschelt (1995); Römmele (1999); Berndt (2001). For the situation in the Baltic States, see, for example, Smith et al. (2002); Tiemann and Jahn (2002).

See, for example, Crombez (1996); Warwick (2000); Bergman et al. (2008).

For a discussion, see Laver and Garry (2000); Benoit and Laver (2006); Dalton (2008).

For the cases not covered by the Benoit and Laver dataset (2004 onwards), the Chapel Hill data (Hooghe et al. 2010; Bakker et al. 2012) are consulted.

See, for example, the discussion of one of the deviant cases, Latvia 1998, in Sect. 4.3.

The name of the programme is misleading. It is suitable for crisp set QCA as well as for fuzzy set QCA.

In their “code of good practice in QCA”, Schneider and Wagemann (2010, p. 406) state that the appropriate threshold for coverage depends on the special shape of the research project. A comparison with other studies shows that a coverage value of 79% is a very acceptable result – see, for example, Schwellnus et al. (2009, p. 15), who consider a coverage rate of 60% satisfying.

The surprising fact that the third path includes the absence of the two-party dominance condition should not be over-interpreted. In the intermediate solution, which includes those logical remainders that are in accordance with the theoretical assumptions, the condition disappears. That is to say, the absence of the condition is not needed to explain the outcome.

As a cross-check, I also ran the analysis for the negative outcome (majority governments). From a theoretical standpoint, it should be expected that the absence of the conditions leading to the formation of minority governments is linked to the formation of majority governments. This proves true: The solution term for the negative outcome consists of three different combinations of absent conditions (nonc*lackpol + divide*twodom*noncoal + divide*twodom*lackpol).

In a strict sense, a condition is necessary only if it is always present when a minority government occurs (consistency: 1.0). The (informal) threshold prevalent in the literature is 0.9 (see, for example, Schneider and Wagemann 2010, p. 406).

The two factors might, however, be mutually dependent or one factor might result from the other (for a discussion of potential “robustness checks” in QCA, see Skaaning 2011).

The following paragraphs are based on Keudel-Kaiser (2014), Chap. 6.2.

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Title: Party system factors and the formation of minority governments in Central and Eastern Europe
A Qualitative Comparative Analysis
Author: Dr. Dorothea Keudel-Kaiser
Publication date: 12-12-2016
Publisher: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden
Published in: Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft / Issue 3-4/2016
Print ISSN: 1865-2646
Electronic ISSN: 1865-2654
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12286-016-0321-x

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