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Published in: Environmental Earth Sciences 3/2014

01-08-2014 | Original Article

Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda, northern Italy

Authors: Byron Quan Luna, Jan Blahut, Corrado Camera, Cees van Westen, Tiziana Apuani, Victor Jetten, Simone Sterlacchini

Published in: Environmental Earth Sciences | Issue 3/2014

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Abstract

Quantitative landslide risk assessment requires information about the temporal, spatial and intensity probability of hazardous processes both regarding their initiation as well as their run-out. This is followed by an estimation of the physical consequences inflicted by the hazard, preferentially quantified in monetary values. For that purpose, deterministic hazard modelling has to be coupled with information about the value of the elements at risk and their vulnerability. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to determine physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk can suffer an impact. These results can then be applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. Debris flow risk has been assessed in the area of Tresenda in the Valtellina Valley (Lombardy Region, northern Italy). Three quantitative hazard scenarios for different return periods were prepared using available rainfall and geotechnical data. The numerical model FLO-2D was applied for the simulation of the debris flow propagation. The modelled hazard scenarios were consequently overlaid with the elements at risk, represented as building footprints. The expected physical damage to the buildings was estimated using vulnerability functions based on flow depth and impact pressure. A qualitative correlation between physical vulnerability and human losses was also proposed. To assess the uncertainties inherent in the analysis, six risk curves were obtained based on the maximum, average and minimum values and direct economic losses to the buildings were estimated, in the range of 0.25–7.7 million €, depending on the hazard scenario and vulnerability curve used.

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Metadata
Title
Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda, northern Italy
Authors
Byron Quan Luna
Jan Blahut
Corrado Camera
Cees van Westen
Tiziana Apuani
Victor Jetten
Simone Sterlacchini
Publication date
01-08-2014
Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Published in
Environmental Earth Sciences / Issue 3/2014
Print ISSN: 1866-6280
Electronic ISSN: 1866-6299
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-013-2986-7

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