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2011 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

19. Potential Change in Groundwater Discharge as Response to Varying Climatic Conditions – An Experimental Model Study at Catchment Scale

Authors : Maria-Theresia Schafmeister, Andreas Darsow

Published in: The Baltic Sea Basin

Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Abstract

The possible change in groundwater discharge from a medium-scale catchment to the Baltic is studied by means of a numerical groundwater flow model. The test area northeast of Wismar (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany) is built by quaternary glaciofluvial sands and intercalated tills. Today’s groundwater recharge is calculated as 24% of the recent average annual precipitation of 600 mm in the test area, and its submarine groundwater discharge is modelled to 14.3% of the precipitation. Based on climate scenarios calculated by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and the Hadley Centre (HC) three sea-level scenarios in combination with four precipitation scenarios are modelled for steady-state groundwater conditions in order to assess potential response in discharge. The temporal development is observed in a simplified schematic model for transient conditions. For the given conditions the influence of sea-level rise is almost not noticeable. However, the modelled scenarios indicate that changes in groundwater recharge as a consequence of climate-induced changes in precipitation lead to notable variations of submarine groundwater discharge.

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Title: Potential Change in Groundwater Discharge as Response to Varying Climatic Conditions – An Experimental Model Study at Catchment Scale
Authors: Maria-Theresia Schafmeister
Andreas Darsow
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Book: The Baltic Sea Basin
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-17219-9

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-642-17220-5

Copyright Year: 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-17220-5_19