Predicting current and future suitable habitats for Bergenia ciliata in Indian Himalayan region

Climate change has a significant influence on the development and distribution of vegetation worldwide. The present study was undertaken to predict suitable habitats for Bergenia ciliata under current and future scenarios using ensemble modeling. In recent decades, the natural regeneration of B. ciliata has decreased due to anthropogenic activities, such as road construction and overexploitation of B. ciliata rhizomes by traders through local people. A total of 131 occurrence records and 11 non-correlated environmental variables were used in this study. The major environmental components for determining the suitable habitat distribution for B. ciliata were slope (20.6%), precipitation of driest quarter (bio17, 13.4%), precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18, 11.7%), and mean temperature of driest quarter (bio9, 10.2%). The high, medium and low suitable areas under the current climate scenario are distributed about 39,279 km², 38,124 km², and 116,811 km², respectively. High suitable areas would remain about 29,032 km² (26.09% reduction) and 30,876 km², (21.39% reduction) under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario in 2060 and 2080 (SSP5-8.5). The high suitable areas under future climate scenarios would be reduced more in the Western Himalayan region than Eastern Himalayan region. The predicted suitable habitat areas will be helpful for future exploration and conservation management plans for B. ciliata.