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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and Ground Response Analysis Considering Uncertainty in Foundation Media for a Few Eastern Locations in Mumbai

  • 2025
  • OriginalPaper
  • Chapter
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Abstract

This chapter delves into the critical aspects of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and ground response analysis, with a particular focus on Mumbai, a megacity in India that is rapidly expanding and situated near fault lines. The text highlights the limitations of using a single peak ground acceleration (PGA) value for seismic design, emphasizing the need for site-specific assessments to ensure the safety and economic viability of structures. The chapter presents case studies that demonstrate significant variations in design PGA values across different sites in Mumbai, underscoring the importance of considering local soil profiles and uncertainties in ground response analysis. Additionally, the text discusses the potential consequences of not accounting for these factors, including the risk of structural failure or uneconomic design. The chapter also provides insights into the methodology used for PSHA and ground response analysis, including the generation of synthetic time histories and the consideration of uncertainties in the estimation of shear modulus from standard penetration values. The results of the analysis are presented in the form of ground motion amplification factors, which are crucial for understanding the seismic behavior of soil profiles and designing structures that can withstand seismic events. The chapter concludes with a discussion on the implications of the findings for seismic design and urban planning in Mumbai, highlighting the need for a detailed cost-benefit risk analysis to arrive at appropriate design PGA requirements for structures in megacities near fault lines.

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Title
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and Ground Response Analysis Considering Uncertainty in Foundation Media for a Few Eastern Locations in Mumbai
Authors
Soubhagya Karmakar
Sangita Saha
Kapilesh Bhargava
Copyright Year
2025
Publisher
Springer Nature Singapore
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-0751-8_29
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