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Published in: Environmental Earth Sciences 2/2019

01-01-2019 | Thematic Issue

Projected changes in climate and hydrological regimes of the Western Siberian lowlands

Authors: Rajesh Sada, Britta Schmalz, Jens Kiesel, Nicola Fohrer

Published in: Environmental Earth Sciences | Issue 2/2019

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Abstract

In this study, we analyse possible future climatic changes in three catchments, namely, Pyshma, Vagai and Loktinka located in the Western Siberian lowland region, and the resulting impact on hydrological regimes. It involved downscaling the GCM outputs based on the established statistical relationship between large-scale atmospheric variables and station data and simulating the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes via hydrological modelling. This was done for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 based on second-generation Canadian Earth System Model used in the IPCC fifth assessment report. This paper provides the first climate change projections on a local scale in these catchments. The statistical downscaling showed that there will be an increase in both maximum and minimum temperature at all stations under all scenarios. The mean annual daily precipitation increased in Loktinka and Pyshma basins under all scenarios, but there was no clear trend in Vagai basin. The possible increase in annual precipitation is mostly due to the projected increase in autumn and winter precipitation. Annual streamflow tends to increase in all catchments under all scenarios.

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Metadata
Title
Projected changes in climate and hydrological regimes of the Western Siberian lowlands
Authors
Rajesh Sada
Britta Schmalz
Jens Kiesel
Nicola Fohrer
Publication date
01-01-2019
Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Published in
Environmental Earth Sciences / Issue 2/2019
Print ISSN: 1866-6280
Electronic ISSN: 1866-6299
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8047-0

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