Top

Biodiversity and Conservation

04-02-2025 | Original Research

Projected impact of climate change on the future distribution of Larrea species in southern South America

Authors: Bárbara Vento, Juan Rivera

Published in: Biodiversity and Conservation

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config

AI-assisted search

Off

Abstract

Climate change is causing vegetation shifts worldwide, affecting species distributions and altering natural ecosystems. Understanding the impact of future climate projections on plant habitats is crucial for sustainable biodiversity, effective long-term conservation and management strategies. In this study, we assessed the future distribution of four species within the genus Larrea across the semi-arid to arid regions of Argentina using species distribution modeling forced with current and future climate conditions. We focused on a mid-future (2041–2070) time horizon using a high-emissions (SSP5-8.5) scenario to evaluate changes in several bioclimatic indicators that contribute to the spatial distribution of Larrea. While projected temperature is expected to reach 2 °C above the reference 1981–2010 period and precipitation is projected to increase up to 10% in much over the study area, the future suitable habitats for the Larrea species will largely remain similar to their current distribution, with some minor changes in their spatial range. This result is relevant for the evaluation of plants adaptability to future climate conditions, a factor that can ensure mitigation plans and restoration efforts for the drylands.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now

Available only for authorised users

Aiello-Lammens ME, Boria RA, Radosavljevic A, Vilela B, Anderson RP (2015) spThin: an R package for spatial thinning of species occurrence records for use in ecological niche models. Ecography 38:541–545. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01132CrossRef

Alcántara-Ayala O, Oyama K, Ríos-Muñoz CA, Rivas G, Ramirez-Barahona S, Luna-Vega I (2020) Morphological variation of leaf traits in the Ternstroemia lineata species complex (Ericales: Penthaphylacaceae) in response to geographic and climatic variation. PeerJ 8:e8307CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Almazroui M, Ashfaq M, Islam MN et al (2021) Assessment of CMIP6 performance and projected temperature and precipitation changes over South America. Earth Syst Environ 5:155–183. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00233-6CrossRef

Aragón-Noriega EA, Castillo-Vargasmachuca SG, Ponce-Palafox JT, Cruz-Vásquez R, Rodríguez-Domínguez G, Pérez-González R (2017) Distribución Potencial De almeja de sifón Panopea globosa del Golfo De California en un escenario de cambio climático. Acta Universitaria 27(3):28–35. https://doi.org/10.15174/au.2017.1245CrossRef

Arana MD, Martínez GA, Oggero AJ, Natale ES, Morrone JJ (2017) Map and shapefile of the biogeographic provinces of Argentina. Zootaxa 4341(3):420–422. https://doi.org/10.11646/ZOOTAXA.4341.3.6CrossRefPubMed

Attarod P, Miri S, Shirvany A, Bayramnejad V (2018) Variations in leaf area index of Quercus Brantii trees in response to changing climate. J Agricultural Sci Technol 20(7):1417–1429. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.8307CrossRef

Bobrowski M, Weidinger J, Schickhoff U (2021) Is new always better? Frontiers in global climate datasets for modeling treeline species in the Himalayas. Atmosphere 12:543. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12050543CrossRef

Bongiovanni G, Cantero J, Eynard A, Goleniowski M (2008) Organic extracts of Larrea divaricata Cav. Induced apoptosis on tumoral MCF7 cells with a higher cytotoxicity than nordihydroguaiaretic acid or paclitaxel. J Experimental Therapeutic Oncol 7:1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1526-9964(08)70001-1CrossRef

Brun P, Zimmermann NE, Hari C, Pellissier L, Karger DN (2022) Global climate-related predictors at kilometer resolution for the past and future. Earth Syst Sci Data 14:5573–5603. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5573-2022CrossRef

Carabajal MPA, Piloto-Ferrer J, Nicollela HD et al (2021) Antigenotoxic, antiproliferative and antimetastatic properties of a combination of native medicinal plants from Argentina. J Ethnopharmacol 267:113479CrossRefPubMed

Collazo S, Barrucand M, Rusticucci M (2019) Variability and predictability of winter cold nights in Argentina. Weather Clim Extremes 26:100236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100236CrossRef

D’Odorico P, Okin GS, Bestelmeyer BT (2012) A synthetic review of feedbacks and drivers of shrub encroachment in arid grasslands. Ecohydrology 5(5):520–530. https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.259CrossRef

de Benítez GC, Pece M, de Galíndez MJ, Vélez S, Gómez A, Zárate M (2002) Determinación De funciones para la estimación de biomasa aérea individual en Jarilla (Larrea divaricata) de la provincia de Santiago Del Estero. Argentina Foresta Veracruzana 4(2):23–28

Elith J, Leathwick JR (2009) Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 40:677–697. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159CrossRef

Etherington TR, Peltzer DA, Wyse SV (2022) Future climates are predicted to alter the potential distributions of non-native conifer species in New Zealand. New Z J Ecol 46(1):1–14

Ezcurra E, Montaña C, Arizaga S (1991) Architecture, light interception, and distribution of Larrea species in the Monte Desert. Argentina Ecol 72:23–34. https://doi.org/10.2307/1938899CrossRef

Feeley KJ, Bravo-Avila C, Fadrique B, Perez TM, Zuleta D (2020) Climate-driven changes in the composition of New World plant communities. Nat Clim Change 10(10):965–970. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0873-2CrossRef

Fernández ME, Cony MA, Passera CB (2019) Germination temperatures and seed dormancy of two Larrea species (Zygophyllaceae) from the Monte Desert, Argentina. Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias Universidad Nacional de Cuyo 51(2): 235–247

Friggens MM, Warwell MV, Chambers JC, Kitche SG (2012) Modeling and predicting vegetation response of western U.S.A. grasslands, shrublands, and deserts to climate change. In: Finch D (ed) Climate change in grasslands, shrublands, and deserts of the interior American west: a review and needs assessment (Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-285. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, pp 1–20. https://doi.org/10.2737/RMRS-GTR-285

GBIF Secretariat (2023a) GBIF Backbone Taxonomy. Checklist dataset https://www.gbif.org/species/5635115. Accessed March 2023. https://doi.org/10.15468/39omei

GBIF Secretariat (2023d) GBIF Backbone Taxonomy. Checklist dataset https://www.gbif.org/species/5635234. Accessed March 2023. https://doi.org/10.15468/39omei

GBIF Secretariat (2023c) GBIF Backbone Taxonomy. Checklist dataset https://www.gbif.org/species/6384921. Accessed March 2023. https://doi.org/10.15468/39omei

GBIF Secretariat (2023b) GBIF Backbone Taxonomy. Checklist dataset https://www.gbif.org/species/5635270. Accessed March 2023. https://doi.org/10.15468/39omei

Gelviz-Gelvez SM, Pavón NP, Illoldi-Rangel P, Ballesteros-Barrera C (2015) Ecological niche modeling under climate change to select shrubs for ecological restoration in Central Mexico. Ecol Eng 74:302–309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2014.09.082CrossRef

Godoy-Bürki AC, Acosta JM, Aagesen L (2018) Phylogenetic relationships within the New World subfamily Larreoideae (Zygophyllaceae) confirm polyphyly of the disjunct genus Bulnesia. Syst Biodivers 16(5):453–468. https://doi.org/10.1080/14772000.2018.1451406CrossRef

Guo Y, Zhao Z, Yuan S, Li X (2023) A greener Loess Plateau in the future: moderate warming will expand the potential distribution areas of woody species. Environ Res Lett 18(3):034027. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb9a8CrossRef

Hama AA, Khwarahm NR (2023) Predictive mapping of two endemic oak tree species under climate change scenarios in a semiarid region: range overlap and implications for conservation. Ecol Inf 73:101930. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101930CrossRef

Hernandez PA, Graham CH, Master LL, Albert DL (2006) The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modeling methods. Ecography 29(5):773–785. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2006.04700.xCrossRef

IPCC (2021) Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, (pp. 3– 32), 8 https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001

Jha A, Praveen J, Nameer PO (2022) Contrasting occupancy models with presence-only models: does accounting for detection lead to better predictions? Ecol Model 472:110105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110105CrossRef

Karger DN, Conrad O, Böhner J et al (2017) Climatologies at high resolution for the Earth land surface areas. Sci Data 4:170122. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.122CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Karger DN, Wilson AM, Mahony C et al (2021) Global daily 1 km land surface precipitation based on cloud cover-informed downscaling. Sci Data 8:307. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-01084-6CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Kass JM, Pinilla-Buitrago GE, Paz A et al (2023) Wallace 2: a shiny app for modeling species niches and distributions redesigned to facilitate expansion via module contributions. Ecography 2023(3):e06547. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.06547CrossRef

Konowalik K, Kolanowska M (2018) Climatic niche shift and possible future spread of the invasive South African Orchid Disa bracteata in Australia and adjacent areas. PeerJ 6:e6107. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.6107CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Labraga JC, Villalba R (2009) Climate in the Monte Desert: past trends, present conditions, and future projections. J Arid Environ 73:154–163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2008.03.016CrossRef

Laport RG, Hatem L, Minckley RL, Ramsey J (2013) Ecological niche modeling implicates climatic adaptation, competitive exclusion, and niche conservatism among Larrea tridentata cytotypes in north American deserts 1, 2. J Torrey Bot Soc 140(3):349–363. https://doi.org/10.3159/TORREY-D-13-00009.1CrossRef

Leroy B, Delsol R, Hugueny B, Meynard CN, Barhoumi C, Barbet-Massin M, Bellard C (2018) Without quality presence–absence data, discrimination metrics such as tss can be misleading measures of model performance. J Biogeogr 45:1994–2002. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13402CrossRef

Lia VV, Confalonieri VA, Comas CI et al (2001) Molecular phylogeny of Larrea and its allies (Zygophyllaceae): reticulate evolution and the probable time of creosote bush arrival to North America. Mol Phylogenet Evol 21:309e320. https://doi.org/10.1006/mpev.2001.1025CrossRef

Malhi Y, Franklin J, Seddon N, Solan M, Turner MG, Field CB, Knowlton N (2020) Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions. Philosophical Trans Royal Soc B 375:20190104. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0104CrossRef

Martínez-Carretero E, Dalmasso A, Trione S (2007) Carbon Storage in Larrea divaricata and L. Cuneifolia (Zygophyllaceae) in drylands of Central-Western Argentina. Arid Land Res Manage 21:273–285. https://doi.org/10.1080/15324980701603409CrossRef

Meinshausen M, Nicholls ZRJ, Lewis J et al (2020) The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500. Geosci Model Dev 13:3571–3605. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020CrossRef

Muscarella R, Galante PJ, Soley-Guardia M et al (2014) ENM eval: an R package for conducting spatially independent evaluations and estimating optimal model complexity for Maxent ecological niche models. Methods Ecol Evol 5(11):1198–1205. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12261CrossRef

O’Donnell MS, Ignizio DA (2012) Bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States. US Geol Surv data Ser 691:1–10. https://doi.org/10.3133/ds691CrossRef

Palacio L, Cantero JJ, Cusidó RM, Goleniowski ME (2012) Phenolic compound production in relation to differentiation in cell and tissue cultures of Larrea divaricata (cav). Plant Sci 193:1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.plantsci.2012.05.007CrossRefPubMed

Peters DP, Yao J, Sala OE, Anderson JP (2012) Directional climate change and potential reversal of desertification in arid and semiarid ecosystems. Glob Change Biol 18(1):151–163. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02498.xCrossRef

Phillips SJ, Dudik M (2008) Modeling of species distributions with MaxEnt: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 31:161–175. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.5203.xCrossRef

Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol Model 190(3–4):231–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026CrossRef

Phillips SJ, Dudık M, Elith J et al (2009) Sample selection bias and presence only distribution models: implications for background and pseudo-absence data. Ecol Appl 19:181–197. https://doi.org/10.1890/07-2153.1CrossRefPubMed

Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Dudík M et al (2017) Opening the black box: an open-source release of Maxent. Ecography 40(7):887–893CrossRef

Priti H, Aravind NA, Shaanker RU et al (2016) Modeling impacts of future climate on the distribution of Myristicaceae species in the western ghats, India. Ecol Eng 89:14–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2016.01.006CrossRef

Reboita MS, Kuki CAC, Marrafon VH et al (2022a) South America climate change revealed through climate indices projected by GCMs and Eta-RCM ensembles. Clim Dyn 58:459–485. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05918-2CrossRef

Reboita MS, da Rocha RP, Souza CAD et al (2022b) Future projections of Extreme Precipitation Climate indices over South America based on CORDEX-CORE Multimodel Ensemble. Atmosphere 13(9):1463. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13091463CrossRef

Rivera JA, Penalba OC, Betolli ML (2013) Inter-annual and inter‐decadal variability of dry days in Argentina. Int J Clim 33:834. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3472CrossRef

Rusticucci M (2012) Observed and simulated variability of extreme temperature events over South America. Atmos Res 106:1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.11.001CrossRef

Rusticucci M, Penalba O (2000) Interdecadal changes in the precipitation seasonal cycle over southern South America and their relationship with surface temperature. Clim Res 16:1–15. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr016001CrossRef

Souto CP, Zalazar LP, Tadey M, Premoli AC (2024) Modeling past, present and future: species-specific responses to climate changes in three shrub congeners from south American drylands. J Arid Environ 221:105139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2024.105139CrossRef

Thomas KA, Stauffer BA, Jarchow CJ (2023) Decoupling of species and plant communities of the US Southwest: a CCSM4 climate scenario example. Ecosphere 14(2):e4414. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4414CrossRef

Thompson RS, Anderson KH, Bartlein PJ (1998) A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the western United States. U.S. Department of the Interior| U.S. Geological Survey, pp 1–26. https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1153/c1153.pdf

Valavi R, Guillera-Arroita G, Lahoz-Monfort JJ, Elith J (2022) Predictive performance of presence-only species distribution models: a benchmark study with reproducible code. Ecol Monogr 92(1):e01486. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1486CrossRef

Vento B, Rivera J, Ontivero M, Carretero EM (2022) Insights into the relationships between morphological traits of Larrea divaricata and climate variables in southern south America. Int J Plant Sci 183(3):220–234. https://doi.org/10.1086/718387CrossRef

Vento B, Mego N, Puebla G (2024) Advances in understanding the phylogenetic relationships of the subfamily Larreoideae using morphological and molecular evidence. Bot J Linn Soc. https://doi.org/10.1093/botlinnean/. boae037CrossRef

Viale M, Bianchi E, Cara L et al (2019) Contrasting climates at both sides of the Andes in Argentina and Chile. Front Environ Sci 7:69. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00069CrossRef

Xu H, Li Y, Xu G, Zou T (2007) Ecophysiological response and morphological adjustment of two central Asian desert shrubs towards variation in summer precipitation. Plant Cell Environ 30(4):399–409CrossRefPubMed

Xu Z, Feng Z, Yang J, Zheng J, Zhang F (2013) Nowhere to invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia projected to disappear under future climate scenarios. PLoS ONE 8(7):e70728. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0070728CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Yang J, Liu W, Li W (2020) Geographical distribution patterns of Metaeuchromius in Asia and description of a new species from China (Lepidoptera, Crambidae). J Asia Pac Entomol 23(3):845–851CrossRef

Zhang WY, Wei ZW, Wang BH, Han XP (2016) Measuring mixing patterns in complex networks by Spearman rank correlation coefficient. Physica A 451:440–450CrossRef

Zhang X, Evans JP, Burrell AL (2024) Less than 4% of dryland areas are projected to desertify despite increased aridity under climate change. Commun Earth Environ 5:300. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01463-yCrossRef

Title: Projected impact of climate change on the future distribution of Larrea species in southern South America
Authors: Bárbara Vento
Juan Rivera
Publication date: 04-02-2025
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Published in: Biodiversity and Conservation
Print ISSN: 0960-3115
Electronic ISSN: 1572-9710
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-025-03023-y