Skip to main content
Top
Published in: Neural Computing and Applications 7/2016

01-10-2016 | Original Article

Research on prediction of traffic flow based on dynamic fuzzy neural networks

Author: Haitao Li

Published in: Neural Computing and Applications | Issue 7/2016

Log in

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Combining the advantages of the neural network and fuzzy system, this paper makes a further research on the dynamic fuzzy neural networks (D-FNN) traffic flow prediction. Instead of being in consistence with growth of the input number, the fuzzy rule number of the D-FNN increases exponentially in the whole training network structure. In particular, this method can establish a required network structure automatically. This method is applied to the traffic flow time series to analyze and compare the predicting performance of the predicting model based on the neural network method and the adaptive neural fuzzy inference system by combining with the chaos theory. The simulation result shows that this method is quite effective and can improve the predicting accuracy.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literature
1.
go back to reference Smith B (2002) Comparison of parametric and nonparametric models for traffic flow forecasting. Transp Res Part C 10(4):303–321CrossRef Smith B (2002) Comparison of parametric and nonparametric models for traffic flow forecasting. Transp Res Part C 10(4):303–321CrossRef
2.
go back to reference Rice J (2004) A simple and effective method for predicting travel times on freeways. IEEE Trans Intell Transp Syst 5(3):200–207CrossRef Rice J (2004) A simple and effective method for predicting travel times on freeways. IEEE Trans Intell Transp Syst 5(3):200–207CrossRef
3.
go back to reference Giovanni P (2006) A processing architecture for associative short-term memory in electronic noses. Meas Sci Technol 17(11):3066–3072CrossRef Giovanni P (2006) A processing architecture for associative short-term memory in electronic noses. Meas Sci Technol 17(11):3066–3072CrossRef
4.
go back to reference Vladimir N (2014) Comparison of classical statistical methods and artificial neural network in traffic noise prediction. Environ Impact Assess Rev 49:24–30CrossRef Vladimir N (2014) Comparison of classical statistical methods and artificial neural network in traffic noise prediction. Environ Impact Assess Rev 49:24–30CrossRef
5.
go back to reference Marfia G, Roccetti M (2010) Vehicular congestion detection and short-term forecasting: a new model with results. IEEE Trans Veh Technol 60(7):2936–2948CrossRef Marfia G, Roccetti M (2010) Vehicular congestion detection and short-term forecasting: a new model with results. IEEE Trans Veh Technol 60(7):2936–2948CrossRef
6.
go back to reference Vlahogianni EI, Karlaftis MG, Golias JC (2005) Optimized and meta-optimized neural networks for short-term traffic flow prediction: a genetic approach. Transp Res Part C 13(3):211–234CrossRef Vlahogianni EI, Karlaftis MG, Golias JC (2005) Optimized and meta-optimized neural networks for short-term traffic flow prediction: a genetic approach. Transp Res Part C 13(3):211–234CrossRef
7.
go back to reference Li MT, Yuan J (2013) WT-AOSVR models for short-time traffic flow prediction. Comput Appl Softw 1(30):277–280 Li MT, Yuan J (2013) WT-AOSVR models for short-time traffic flow prediction. Comput Appl Softw 1(30):277–280
8.
go back to reference Hamed M, Al-Masaeid H (1995) Short-term prediction of traffic volume in urban arterials. J Transp Eng (ASCE) 121(3):249–254CrossRef Hamed M, Al-Masaeid H (1995) Short-term prediction of traffic volume in urban arterials. J Transp Eng (ASCE) 121(3):249–254CrossRef
9.
go back to reference Okutani I, Stephanedes YJ (1984) Dynamic prediction of traffic volume through Kalman filtering theory. Transp Res B 18(1):1–11CrossRef Okutani I, Stephanedes YJ (1984) Dynamic prediction of traffic volume through Kalman filtering theory. Transp Res B 18(1):1–11CrossRef
10.
go back to reference Hong WC, Pai PF (2006) Predicting engine reliability by support vector machines. Int J Adv Manuf Technol 28(1–2):154–161CrossRef Hong WC, Pai PF (2006) Predicting engine reliability by support vector machines. Int J Adv Manuf Technol 28(1–2):154–161CrossRef
11.
go back to reference Hong WC (2012) Application of seasonal SVR with chaotic immune algorithm in traffic flow forecasting. Neural Comput Appl 21:583–593CrossRef Hong WC (2012) Application of seasonal SVR with chaotic immune algorithm in traffic flow forecasting. Neural Comput Appl 21:583–593CrossRef
12.
go back to reference Zhang WB, Hu HZ, Liu WJ (2007) traffic flow forecast based on type-2 fuzzy logic approach. J Xi’an Jiaotong Univ 41(10):1160–1163MATH Zhang WB, Hu HZ, Liu WJ (2007) traffic flow forecast based on type-2 fuzzy logic approach. J Xi’an Jiaotong Univ 41(10):1160–1163MATH
13.
go back to reference Loukas D, Theodore T, Antony S (2008) Adaptive hybrid fuzzy rule-based system approach for modeling and predicting urban traffic flow. Transp Res Part C 16(5):554–573CrossRef Loukas D, Theodore T, Antony S (2008) Adaptive hybrid fuzzy rule-based system approach for modeling and predicting urban traffic flow. Transp Res Part C 16(5):554–573CrossRef
14.
go back to reference Abdulhai B, Porwal H, Recker W (2002) Short term traffic-flow forecasting using neuro-genetic algorithms. J Intell Transp Syst Technol Plann Oper 7(1):3–41CrossRefMATH Abdulhai B, Porwal H, Recker W (2002) Short term traffic-flow forecasting using neuro-genetic algorithms. J Intell Transp Syst Technol Plann Oper 7(1):3–41CrossRefMATH
15.
go back to reference Park B (2002) Hybrid neuro-fuzzy application in short term freeway traffic volume predicting. Transp Res Rec 1802:190–196CrossRef Park B (2002) Hybrid neuro-fuzzy application in short term freeway traffic volume predicting. Transp Res Rec 1802:190–196CrossRef
16.
go back to reference Zhang L, Liu QC, Yang WC (2013) An improved k-nearest neighbor model for short-term traffic flow prediction. Procedia—Soc Behav Sci 96:653–662CrossRef Zhang L, Liu QC, Yang WC (2013) An improved k-nearest neighbor model for short-term traffic flow prediction. Procedia—Soc Behav Sci 96:653–662CrossRef
17.
go back to reference Zhang C, Sun S, Yu G (2004) Short-term traffic flow forecasting using expanded Bayesian network for incomplete data. In: Proceedings international symposium on neural networks, Dalian, China. Lecture Notes in Computer Science (LNCS 3174), Springer, Berlin Zhang C, Sun S, Yu G (2004) Short-term traffic flow forecasting using expanded Bayesian network for incomplete data. In: Proceedings international symposium on neural networks, Dalian, China. Lecture Notes in Computer Science (LNCS 3174), Springer, Berlin
18.
go back to reference Enrique C, Jose MM, Santos SC (2008) Predicting traffic flow using Bayesian networks. Transp Res Part B 42(5):482–509CrossRef Enrique C, Jose MM, Santos SC (2008) Predicting traffic flow using Bayesian networks. Transp Res Part B 42(5):482–509CrossRef
19.
go back to reference Hodge V, Jackson T, Austin J (2012) A binary neural network framework for attribute selection and prediction. In: Proceedings 4th international conference on neural computation theory and applications (NCTA 2012), SciTePress, Barcelona, pp 510–515 Hodge V, Jackson T, Austin J (2012) A binary neural network framework for attribute selection and prediction. In: Proceedings 4th international conference on neural computation theory and applications (NCTA 2012), SciTePress, Barcelona, pp 510–515
20.
go back to reference Victoria JH, Rajesh K, Jim A et al (2014) Short -term prediction of traffic flow using a binary neural network. Neural Comput Appl 25:1639–1655CrossRef Victoria JH, Rajesh K, Jim A et al (2014) Short -term prediction of traffic flow using a binary neural network. Neural Comput Appl 25:1639–1655CrossRef
21.
go back to reference Hou Y, Mai YM (2013) Chaotic prediction for traffic flow of improved BP neural network. Indones J Electr Eng 11(3):1682–1690 Hou Y, Mai YM (2013) Chaotic prediction for traffic flow of improved BP neural network. Indones J Electr Eng 11(3):1682–1690
22.
go back to reference Lu JJ, Wang ZQ (2006) Internet traffic data flow forecast by RBF neural network based on phase space reconstruction. Trans Nanjing Univ Aeronaut Astronaut 23(4):316–322MATH Lu JJ, Wang ZQ (2006) Internet traffic data flow forecast by RBF neural network based on phase space reconstruction. Trans Nanjing Univ Aeronaut Astronaut 23(4):316–322MATH
23.
go back to reference Vlahogianni EI, Karlaftis MG, Golias JC (2007) Spatio-temporal urban traffic volume forecasting using genetically optimized modular networks. Comput-Aided Civil Infrastruct Eng 22(5):317–325CrossRef Vlahogianni EI, Karlaftis MG, Golias JC (2007) Spatio-temporal urban traffic volume forecasting using genetically optimized modular networks. Comput-Aided Civil Infrastruct Eng 22(5):317–325CrossRef
24.
go back to reference Zhong M, Sharma S, Lingras P (2005) Short-term traffic prediction on different types of roads with genetically designed regression and time delay neural network models. J Comput Civil Eng 19(1):94–103CrossRef Zhong M, Sharma S, Lingras P (2005) Short-term traffic prediction on different types of roads with genetically designed regression and time delay neural network models. J Comput Civil Eng 19(1):94–103CrossRef
25.
go back to reference Vlahogianni EI (2009) Enhancing predictions in signalized arterials with information on short-term traffic flow dynamics. J Intell Transp Syst 13(2):73–84CrossRef Vlahogianni EI (2009) Enhancing predictions in signalized arterials with information on short-term traffic flow dynamics. J Intell Transp Syst 13(2):73–84CrossRef
26.
go back to reference Roger J (1993) ANFIS: adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern 23(3):665–685CrossRef Roger J (1993) ANFIS: adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern 23(3):665–685CrossRef
27.
go back to reference Zhu WF, Zhao SJ (2007) Optimal design of structure for neural networks based on rough sets. Comput Eng Des 28(17):4210–4212 Zhu WF, Zhao SJ (2007) Optimal design of structure for neural networks based on rough sets. Comput Eng Des 28(17):4210–4212
28.
go back to reference Fu H, Xu LH, Hu G et al (2010) Traffic flow state-forecasting algorithm based on Sugeno neural fuzzy system. Control Theory Appl 12(27):1637–1640 Fu H, Xu LH, Hu G et al (2010) Traffic flow state-forecasting algorithm based on Sugeno neural fuzzy system. Control Theory Appl 12(27):1637–1640
29.
go back to reference Er MJ, Wu SQ, Gao YA (2001) fast approach for automatic generation of fuzzy rules by generalized dynamic fuzzy neural networks. IEEE Trans Fuzzy Syst 9(4):578–594CrossRef Er MJ, Wu SQ, Gao YA (2001) fast approach for automatic generation of fuzzy rules by generalized dynamic fuzzy neural networks. IEEE Trans Fuzzy Syst 9(4):578–594CrossRef
30.
31.
go back to reference Tan W, Wang YN (2008) Fuzzy neural network control theory and method of chaotic system. Science Press, Beijing, pp 108–150 Tan W, Wang YN (2008) Fuzzy neural network control theory and method of chaotic system. Science Press, Beijing, pp 108–150
32.
go back to reference Yu JH, Peng YH (2011) Predictability study of ENSO with mutual information and Cao methods. Meteorol Sci Technol 39(1):9–12MathSciNet Yu JH, Peng YH (2011) Predictability study of ENSO with mutual information and Cao methods. Meteorol Sci Technol 39(1):9–12MathSciNet
33.
go back to reference Zhang SQ, Jia J (2010) Study on the parameters determination for reconstructing phase-space in chaos time series. Acta Phys Sin 59(3):1576–1582MATH Zhang SQ, Jia J (2010) Study on the parameters determination for reconstructing phase-space in chaos time series. Acta Phys Sin 59(3):1576–1582MATH
34.
go back to reference Lv JH, Lu JN (2001) The chaotic time series analysis and its application. Wuhan University Press, Wuhan, pp 15–93 Lv JH, Lu JN (2001) The chaotic time series analysis and its application. Wuhan University Press, Wuhan, pp 15–93
Metadata
Title
Research on prediction of traffic flow based on dynamic fuzzy neural networks
Author
Haitao Li
Publication date
01-10-2016
Publisher
Springer London
Published in
Neural Computing and Applications / Issue 7/2016
Print ISSN: 0941-0643
Electronic ISSN: 1433-3058
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-015-1991-z

Other articles of this Issue 7/2016

Neural Computing and Applications 7/2016 Go to the issue

Premium Partner