Rethinking Resilience, Adaptation and Transformation in a Time of Change

Though change is often problematic and complicated by circumstance, and in the case of disaster profoundly damaging, it can also be an opportunity to improve otherwise intractable systemic problems. With that in mind, this chapter defines the nature of change as viewed through the lens of resilience and further outlines the relationship between resilience, adaptation, and transformation. Because change is often negative, strategies to build resilience are rationally directed towards coping with its consequences or resisting it outright. Similarly, because change is complicated, with many inter-connected parts, it is difficult to prepare for even when its causes are well understood. Most contemporary theories of resilience recognize the role of complexity, risk and vulnerability, but there is not yet a strong understanding of how to manage change as it impacts groups differently across scales, from local communities to regions, or even nations. The authors propose that resilience planning and theory can be improved by acknowledging the complexities of the adaptive cycle and panarchy in particular. The chapters of the book are offered as case studies and amplification of this idea, either in practice or in theory, from the perspective of multiple fields. The point of view is global, but includes informative chapters written by Japanese contributors who focus on the unprecedented change brought about by the 2011 Tohoku disaster in northern Japan. This perspective is often missing in such collections primarily because of the language barrier.

Over five years after the “triple disaster” of an earthquake, a tsunami, and the subsequent nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant that devastated Japan’s Tohoku region on March 11th, 2011, reconstruction is still progressing slowly. The difficulties are unprecedented and vast in scope: over 400 communities in 62 municipalities are affected in six different prefectures, along hundreds of kilometres of coastline. The challenges are complex and differ in their particular manifestations: earthquake damage, displacement from nuclear disaster, and tsunami destruction. They are dynamically interrelated and cumulative; rural regions, long confronted with depopulation and ageing, are additionally affected by disaster, and the effects are exacerbated by slow recovery and uncertainty. It will be difficult to rebuild more resilient communities that are sturdy and adaptable in order to respond to the challenges of inevitable demographic and economic transformation and global climate change, if planners ignore countervailing trends of demographic decline and environmentally harmful lifestyle preferences. The purpose of this chapter is therefore threefold: First, to provide a comprehensive overview of factors that are complicating reconstruction in Tohoku; second, to show that many of the underlying, structural problems of rural Japan are caused by a proliferation of environmentally harmful lifestyles, which existing top-down urban planning prescriptions fail to address. Thirdly, to stress the importance of complementary, ‘soft’ policies that aim at raising environmental awareness and strengthening social resilience by reinforcing community networks and utilizing endogenous development potentials.

Climate projections for Tunisia show a rise in temperature by 2020 of 1.1 degrees Celsius (°C) and 2.1 °C in 2050. The south of the country is much more of a concern. Rainfall is projected to decrease between 10% in the north and 30% in the south over the same period. In the province of Médenine, in Southern Tunisia, where the bio-climate is dry (rainfall ranging from 100 to 200 mm), rain-fed olive tree cropping dominates (more than 80%) the land-use system. The aim of this work is to conduct a prospective study on the potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of olive growing orchard areas to be used as guidelines for decision-making in climate change-related adaptation programs. Presently, 73% of olive groves are located in highly suitable conditions, but this figure will drop to only 8.5% by 2020 and 7.9% in 2050, while groves located in moderately suitable conditions will change from its current 19.3% to 78.2% and then 67.4%, in the same time frame. Orchards found in low to marginal conditions, which represents only 7.7% today, will increase to 13.3% and further to 24.7%, in 2020 and 2050 respectively. Although the olive tree is well known for being able to grow in harsh environments, climate change is expected to negatively influence the potential for expanding the plantation of these trees under exclusively rain-fed conditions. Therefore, planners and decision-makers need to discourage farmers from growing olive trees in large areas of the province where the rainfall amount is expected to fall by large amounts in the coming decades.

Mega-cities are a growing phenomenon. It is expected that the number of cities with a population greater than ten million people will increase from 26 megacities in 2012 to 41 in 2030. These massive urban centers are a unique phenomenon in the history of humanity. In 2010, about 50% of the world populations were living in cities and the growing trend towards urbanization is expected to continue until 2050 when only 30% of the world populations will be living in rural areas. This often uncontrolled agglomeration promotes a number of fragilities in social systems, and often brings environmental repercussions as well. The city of São Paulo in Brazil is the largest metropolis in South America, with about 11 million inhabitants in 2012. An uncontrolled increase in the fleet of vehicles has become a major challenge to public policy and planning. In January 2008 the fleet size was about 6 million, and in July 2012 it increased to 7.3 million, indicating a trend towards growth and congestion. This situation poses a challenge regarding the quality of life in the city and vulnerability in the transportation system. The impact of climate change may further aggravate this situation with an increase in the frequency of environmental disasters and bouts of heavy rainfall over short periods. From the public policy point of view, measures including vehicular restriction and vehicle inspection only promote temporary relief, but fall short as long-term solutions. From the economic point-of-view, heavy traffic is responsible for a loss of about 27 billion dollars per year. In this chapter we address the expansion of the car fleet in São Paulo, together with its impact on the city’s environment through a case study of transportation public policies.

Although clean air is one of the most important necessities for human life and health, the risk of natural disasters causing air pollution that reduces or inhibits “resiliency” of the victims and communities has not been well understood. This chapter examines the secondary disaster of the air pollution events induced by the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent tsunami in 2011—such as the release and diffusion of radioactive substances from the severely damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, chemical contamination in indoor air of temporary housing built (so-called Sick House Syndrome), and the scattering of asbestos fibers liberated by the quake and tsunami. Air pollution is something that often cannot be seen until severe impacts are noticed later. The paper then describes the importance of air quality monitoring by scientific means and sharing knowledge for risk recognition and immediate pollution controls based on the identification of source of problems for risk reduction, in the context of resilience.

Pastoral systems, where humans depend on livestock, exist largely in arid and semi-arid ecosystems in Mongolia, where climate is highly variable. In many ways, pastoral livestock systems are intimately adapted to climatic variability. Extensive nomadic systems are found in the most variable regions; less extensive, more intensive modes of livestock management occur in areas where forage dependability is more secure. Direct feedback exists between nomadic land-use systems and ecosystem dynamics. Interactions between ecosystems and nomadic land-use systems co-shaped them in mutually-adaptive ways, making both the rangeland ecosystem and nomadic pastoral system resilient and sustainable. This chapter shows how changes in climate variability, ecosystem dynamics, and socioeconomic factors have been interacting in novel ways to determine nomadic land-use systems during the past several decades in Mongolia. The traditional resilience of pastoral community-cultural landscape systems is being affected by climate and socioeconomic changes related to global warming, mining, and goat-cashmere production, which have led to losses in resilience and further degradation of the rangelands, peri-urban areas, and water bodies. This is an example of a “tragedy-of-the-commons”. Opportunities still exist, however, for a sustainable transformation pathway to conserve ecological, social, and cultural resilience associated with these rangeland ecosystems. Different policies need to be applied in different ecological-economic zones of Mongolia. Traditional pastoral community-cultural landscape systems should be strengthened in the western part of the country; modern de-centralized technologies should be introduced, such as renewable energy and wireless communication technology; and value-added approaches are needed to manage livestock, raw materials and sustainable tourism in central part of the country.

Greenhouse gases produced by human activities are widely accepted to be warming the earth and causing an immediate and observable global impact. This has led to the need for different industry sectors to investigate how climate change will impact their interests. In this context this research looks into what is being done in Japan in the cultural heritage sector through a case study of Itsukushima Shrine. Itsukushima Shrine is a UNESCO World Heritage Site, located on Miyajima Island in Hiroshima Prefecture. Since 1963, tide gauge data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that sea levels in the region have been rising and causing an increase in flooding events at the site. This rise mirrors a global increase in sea levels, with many researchers arguing it is a direct result of global warming. Research into global warming and its impacts upon climate systems over the next century strongly suggest that global sea levels will continue to rise. This paper makes use of examples from the United Kingdom to identify ways in which the situation in Japan can be improved. In the UK the cultural heritage industry and researchers have actively sought to investigate, mitigate and adapt to potential threats posed by climate change. Those efforts are helped in part through Government-funded climate change information dissemination and education. This paper details how different sectors are embracing this freely available information to mitigate the impact of climate change on their own interests. Finally, recommendations are made based on the findings from the Itsukushima Shrine case study and also through a detailed appraisal of the UK’s approach. These recommendations are applicable to organizations and cultural heritage sites across Japan and would also benefit other sectors.

Indonesia is an archipelagic country comprised of seventeen thousand islands in an expansive marine area in the tropics. Thousands of mountains and hills, both on land and under the sea, are a geological consequence of being located on the Pacific “Ring of Fire.” Being situated here has meant that different parts of the country are periodically subjected to disasters, including earthquakes and tsunamis. As a result, the more than 200 million people now inhabiting both the large and very small islands in the region have developed strategies to survive by anticipating and adapting to changing local conditions. Throughout its history Indonesia has lived with environmental hazards and disasters—great losses were suffered not only by the poor and those living in remote areas but also by the relatively wealthy who live in major cities. Since the 1980s, development policies of the country began to incorporate environmental issues, and the environmental impact of infrastructural development programs began to be examined carefully before implementation. Development considerations should include anticipation of the impacts of both tsunamis as well as climate change. In the past, planning for environmental impacts was separate from development planning. Recently, however, Indonesia’s National Development Planning Institution started integrating all sectors into a single National Action Plan on Climate Change Adaptation. This paper elaborates the changing awareness of environmental issues, outlines development problems, and recommends further improvements to reflect the complex changes already occurring in ocean-island settlements in this archipelagic region.

Adaptation to climate change is an iterative process the IPCC defines as “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities”. Together with mitigation, adaptation is regarded as one of two fundamental pillars of efforts to address climate change. It is relatively new and underdeveloped, far smaller in terms of investments made so far, and since the level of uncertainty remains high, it poses enormous challenges for policymakers and investors to take concrete actions. One significant aspect is that it should be based on, and more integrated into, sustainable development planning. By introducing the historical development of international negotiations on climate change adaptation, and its recent dramatic changes, this chapter aims to provide a macro-perspective on an institutional framework regarding adaptation to climate change under the UNFCCC. It also argues that the focus of efforts at international, national, and local levels will shift to a more holistic approach instead of responding to adaptation needs on an ad hoc basis. This shift will happen by elaborating and implementing national and local adaptation plans that support a society resilient to climate change. Since experience with adaptation planning is still limited, it is important to share technical information based on national experience. By so doing, the international climate change regime can better serve the promotion of resilient societies at the national and local levels in a practical manner.

There is a natural overlap between adaption based business ventures and so-called Bottom of the Pyramid (BoP) ventures.

This chapter offers the insight of disaster reconstruction in Japan from the point of view of a government agency working between policy, planning, and implementation.

Resilience is now more than a buzzword, as we learned from the impact of several recent very large-scale disasters around the world. Both the international academic and policy communities recognize that the accumulation and reduction of disaster risk is closely intertwined with the fields of sustainable development, environmental protection and climate change, as well as humanitarianism. It is important that policies in these areas are designed to be mutually reinforcing, whether at the local, national or international level. With the increasing pace of interconnectivity in current social-ecological systems, there are many challenges and obstacles to overcome, including a lack of breakthroughs in theoretical studies of complex dynamic systems, a lack of knowledge brokers needed to improve communication between science and policy, and the ever present difficulty of developing and evaluating multidisciplinary education, training and research projects under the current academic system. In this paper, by discussing challenges and obstacles in the development of the science-policy interface, the framework for an ICT-based toolbox is proposed that consists of four major components, including: data collection, analysis and dissemination, simulations based on both natural science models and agent-based models driven by social regulations and economic rules, and an interactive visualization platform. These are developed with a fourfold purpose: (1) facilitating knowledge gathering that will cumulate in the classroom, (2) sharing knowledge and equalizing access to knowledge amongst multidisciplinary research groups, (3) transferring knowledge for use in training, and ultimately, (4) applying knowledge in decision-making processes (in government or elsewhere).

South Asia is recognized as one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate change. Its vulnerability is influenced by a large number of social, economic, political, and technical factors, some of which are peculiar to the region. The diversity of such factors makes vulnerability assessment a challenging task, but proper assessment of vulnerability to climate change will provide a good base for framing resilience strategies. The region is heavily dependent on water for human livelihood, and therefore, several water-related parameters are indicative of the challenges it faces. Traditional indicators which measure water scarcity do not account for the constraints imposed outside the political boundaries of a country. Considering the complexity of the challenges faced by the region, there is a need to re-think the indicators and mechanisms to assess water, food, and energy security. Assessment tools have to be capable of incorporating regional, national, and individual capabilities and constraints to climate change adaptation. Regional cooperation and water management treaties, cooperation among major water-using sectors, community empowerment in water-related decision making, the level of technology to address resilience issues, and the community’s access to technology need to be incorporated into vulnerability assessment tools.

This chapter argues for the mainstreaming of disaster resilience attributes in local development plans as an overarching adaptive measure with regards to urban areas facing climate related disasters. The chapter is based on empirical research involving a group of professional urban planners and managers who are responsible for formulating development plans for local urban areas in a developing country. Using the key-informant technique, the research investigated the ideas of a set of professional planners and managers regarding the suitable urban planning strategies to improve the resilience of local areas against a common hazard (e.g., flooding) that has a tendency to intensify due to climate change. In the next step, the common attributes of more frequently suggested strategies were identified using the principal component analysis technique. In the last step, the extent to which the local development planning system has responded so far to the vulnerability reduction and resilience improvement needs of the civil society. The findings indicate that local planners are sensitive to the flood risks faced by people. They have incorporated policies and strategies in the local development plan to minimize exposure of the people and property to flood hazard and improve the adaptive capacity of the urban settlements. However, the sector-based organization of the plan prepared by the federal level planners was found to be a hindrance to improving mainstream disaster resilience attributes in development planning. Therefore, the paper calls for strengthening the participatory planning and development capacity of the local authorities to enable more resolute mainstreaming of disaster resilience in local development plans.

In dealing with the unexpected impacts of climate change our current spatial planning tools are un-responsive and inflexible.

This research compared two different processes for Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant site planning: 1. Short-term planning based on economic benefit, 2. Hollistic planning based on McHarg’s method and National Land Agency of Japan’s report in 1980. The short-term planning focus easiness of land acquisition (cost, number of land-owner), so TEPCO achieved to reduce building cost 6.6 billion yen. Meanwhile, holistic planning test with 1980’s data can show this site’s vulnerability to earthquakes, tsunamis, and radioactive contaminations. If TEPCO and government evaluated the safety of the site in earlier stage or even after the construction, 11 trillion-yen accident costs could have reduced.

The March 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan triggered one of the largest environmental pollution disasters of all time. Despite the need to decontaminate the affected areas, local residents are reluctant to accept any decontaminated soil and waste in their own living environment, a situation that is delaying decontamination work. With the disaster as a case study, this chapter investigates the role of public involvement and decision-making in disaster response, based on international experience with cleaning up radioactive contamination of the environment.

This paper reviews the transformation opportunities and threats for a resilient society in Africa. The debate about the place and timing of a green economy in Africa is intense and receives attention at all levels of society. Africa is blessed with an abundance of resources, yet its people remain poor and vulnerable to exogenous shocks. New technology imbedded in a green economy and green agriculture could provide opportunities for development but it could also have the opposite unintended effect. Africans rightfully ask if it is morally justifiable for the developed world to expect African countries to implement green technologies in order to reduce CO₂ emissions while first world countries developed their economies with cheaper and well-known technologies. The challenges in Africa are complex and not only centered on technology or the lack thereof. Governance and policy should be used to create an enabling environment for the implementation of new and green technology for economic growth and development. Examples of major infrastructural development projects in parts of Africa are evidence that African leaders in some countries already recognize its importance. Most of these project focus on transportation, energy generation/distribution, and water related services. The food-water-energy nexus is critical for the future development in Africa and innovative technology should be utilized to increase access to education, unlock the potential of natural resources, increase the efficiency of transport systems, unlock markets, and to increase the efficiency of food production, food storage and food distribution.

Planning for climate change adaptation aims to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in communities, but current spatial planning and design projects often neglect the creative power and expertise available in the communities they ostensibly serve. This results in communities that are poorly prepared for the future, and especially the uncertainty of future climate change impacts. This is partly caused by historically determined design processes that leave little room for an enhanced role for community in designing, and deciding, their own future. The design charrette approach is an intensive design-based way to empower local knowledge. In the design charrette process community members and local experts are mixed with academics, designers and regional policy makers. As a group they design and model a desired future for their community, which can as a result reach a higher adaptive capacity that is inherently more resilient and better capable of dealing with unforeseeable climate impacts. The impact of the charrette is twofold. Firstly, the normal social constellations change as community members, with different interests, are connected through new tools for collaboration and exchange. Secondly, the design propositions imply spatial transformations in the city or town.

In India one of every three rural households depends on kerosene based lighting systems that are characterized by low illumination and hazardous smoke. Given the existing and foreseeable gap between demand and supply, universal modern energy access can only be achieved in the short to medium term through a combination of grid and off-grid approaches. The paper presents a case study of solar photovoltaic based micro-grids (generating 75 W–1 kW) used to meet basic lighting requirements of 30 rural communities during peak demand hours (6–10 pm). The communities have adopted micro-level solar-based off-grid systems, which are owned and managed by local entrepreneurs with a 45% equity stake. Case study analysis of this project, in the state of Uttar Pradesh in India shows that: Analysis of the project output concludes that decentralized solutions and private investments can play a major role not only in providing universal modern energy access but also in enhancing livelihood options at the village level.

This chapter uses examples from a number of recent disasters to illuminate the ways that social capital serves as a critical part of resilience. Specifically the article looks at the response from the perspective of social networks to disaster in Bangkok, Thailand, the Tohoku region of Japan, and Christchurch in New Zealand. I introduce three types of social capital—bonding, bridging, and linking—and discuss the mechanism by which they are created and employed using concrete examples. In these cases social cohesion keeps people from leaving disaster-struck regions, allows for the easy mobilization of groups, and provides informal insurance when normal resource providers are not open. Social networks improve disaster recovery for local residents, communities, and the nation as well. Disasters are, and will continue to be, a challenge for both developed and developing countries everywhere. With this understanding in mind, it is important that communities build social capital in advance of disasters by communities as well as by planners and other decision makers. Preparing for disaster with an emphasis on physical infrastructural solutions, such as higher seawalls, raised floors, higher building standards, and so forth, is not sufficient to avoid the negative impact of disasters.

This chapter examines the development of a new construction method using plywood to build homes quickly and inexpensively in the wake of disaster; the method does not rely on skilled labor or sophisticated construction equipment. The construction method’s primary innovations lie in the plywood fabrication and structural performance; however, in the two cases where it has been used so far, community organization is also seen as essential for successful implementation. The experience in Tohoku, Japan, the area damaged by a series of earthquakes and massive tsunami in March, 2011, underlined the importance of bringing both technical and social skills to disaster reconstruction. Architects must respond not only to technical but also to social and environmental issues in reconstruction projects such as these.

Building resilience requires a good strategy for managing change across disciplines as well as scales of community. The chief difficulty is that it can be difficult to recognize the nature of change even when processes are ongoing and easy to observe. Inertia and the bias of previous knowledge can cloud perspective, while a lack of communication and even awareness of issues between local communities and government or other groups, hinders the process. Change is a powerful motivator for planning resilience. The complexity that usually comes with it suggests we need to build in enough flexibility to manage the unknown as it comes up rather than try to plan for all events in advance. That is not to say that preparation is not useful. To the contrary, it is important to become as best informed as possible of risks and vulnerabilities, as well as to share knowledge about best practices and lessons learned from experience at every level of practice. In that regard, learning is an important part of the process. Building on the body of texts collected in this book the authors propose two key insights: Future research will aim to test these insights by finding case studies that show how communities modified their response as they responded in a crisis. Using that information an evidence based process can be developed for policy makers and leaders in order to prepare communities to act more effectively and be more resilient in the face of change.