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For nearly 5 years now, the ELECTRA risk calculation model of falling debris to the public and the ELECTRA-ORESTE software package have been used by French space operators on launch and atmospheric re-entries to guarantee optimum safety for residents on the ground. Considerations on air traffic and the related risks have now to be developed, especially as planes fly over unpopulated areas such as oceans, so currently identified as safe. This is a subject of research privileged at CNES, whose role is to provide operators with the best practices in the calculation of risk for their space operations.
Risk calculation model of falling debris to air traffic can be based, on simplified approach, on the same principles as those used for risk calculation to the public and comes up against the same problems: how to obtain the most precise knowledge of the re-entry zone and the aircraft distribution in this zone? How to determine the casualty volume, linked to the trajectories and the size of objects? How to predict the effect of an impact, considering the key factors of airplane vulnerability?
The work engaged in 2014 concerned the first question: the numerical modelization of the world air distribution. This article aims to show the first air traffic density grid produced at CNES, based on recent OACI data collected and computed by the technology transfer centre SERTIT. The choice of data sources and the limits of the modelization have been developed. We will on conclusion present a possible basic risk calculation model and a numerical implementation on a realistic space re-entry.
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go back to reference Hourtolle C., Gaudel A., Blazquez A. (2012). ELECTRA: Launch and re-entry risk analysis tool. ICATT. Hourtolle C., Gaudel A., Blazquez A. (2012). ELECTRA: Launch and re-entry risk analysis tool. ICATT.
go back to reference Fuentes N, Tholey N, Battiston S., Montabord M., Studer M. (2013). POPSCAN, a CNES geo-information study for re-entry risk assessment. IAASS Fuentes N, Tholey N, Battiston S., Montabord M., Studer M. (2013). POPSCAN, a CNES geo-information study for re-entry risk assessment. IAASS
go back to reference SERTIT, University of Strasbourg, France, http://sertit.u-strasbg.fr/index_en.htm SERTIT, University of Strasbourg, France, http://sertit.u-strasbg.fr/index_en.htm
- Risks of Atmospheric Re-entries on Aircrafts CNES Progress on Studies
- Springer International Publishing
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