Skip to main content
Disciplines
Automotive Business IT + Informatics Construction + Real Estate Electrical Engineering + Electronics Energy + Sustainability Insurance + Risk Finance + Banking Management + Leadership Marketing + Sales Mechanical Engineering + Materials
Events
DE
EN
Books
Journals
Topic Page
Marketing
Start single access now
Access for companies
EXTENDED SEARCH
Log in
Top
Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft
Published in: Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft 2/2017

16-12-2016

Risks of the German Power Supply System

Difference between Risk Assessments from the Insurance Industry and Energy Technicians

Authors: Dirk Wrede, Tim Linderkamp, Miguel Rodriguez Gonzalez

Published in: Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft | Issue 2/2017

Log in

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

The German power supply system is experiencing a phase of radical change. The insurance industry designed this transformation not only as a property insurance donor, but also as an institutional investor. The emphasis of this commitment is based on their own assessment of the risks to which this supply system has been exposed. This study compares risk assessment designs from the insurance industry with that from technical network managers and shows in which the assessments significantly differ. For example, the insurance company’s risk assessment of natural disasters and cyber-attacks is much greater in terms of probability of occurrence and the potential of damage than the assessment of energy experts.
previous article State of the German Short-Term Power Market
next article Green Project Bonds als finanzielle Alternative für Energieunternehmen

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now

Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft

Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft (ZfE) ist eine unabhängige Fachzeitschrift mit aktuellen Themen zu Energiewirtschaft, Energiepolitik und Energierecht. JETZT BESTELLEN

inform now

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now
Appendix
Available only for authorised users
Footnotes
1
For the effects of the 1998 ice storm in Canada, see Chang et al. (2007); for the consequences of the gas conflict between Russia and the Ukraine see, for example, Torres et al. (2009). Regarding the impacts of the United States and Canadian blackouts in 2003, see U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force (2004); for the 2003 Italian blackout, see Union for the Co-ordination of Transmission of Electricity (UCTE) (2004); for the European Blackout in 2006, see van der Vleuten and Lagendijk (2010); for major blackouts from 2003 to 2015, see Veloza and Santamaria (2016).
 
2
We use the term “energy risks” synonymously for all risks in this study, for those that threaten the German power supply system directly or indirectly, or result from the system itself.
 
3
See Section 2.
 
4
The PESTEL analysis is the standard model to scan a company’s environment. PESTEL covers political, economic, social, technological, ecological, and legal risks. See also Johnson et al. (2013). For the PESTEL analysis as a risk analysis method, see Burt et al. (2006); Gassner (2009); Sachs et al. (2008).
 
5
The descriptions of the risks from the survey are listed in the appendix, in Table 10.
 
6
Regarding Sherman Kent’s rating scale and its recommendation, see also Meyer and Booker (1991).
 
7
For the evaluation, the respondents who indicated themselves as active in application-oriented research are included in the energy engineers’ group. This is for two reasons: the low-quantity research group (n = 2) has no meaningful results; second, it can be assumed that application-oriented researchers assess energy system risks from a more technical perspective.
 
8
This estimation could result from the current merit-order system, because the respondents were asked to use a time frame, which lasts from three to five years. In the long run non-profitable power plants will leave the market and the price for electricity will stabilize.
 
Literature
Amin SM (2002) Toward secure and resilient interdependent infrastructures. J Infrastruct Syst 8(3):67–75CrossRef
Amin SM (2005) Scanning the technology: energy infrastructure defense systems. Proc IEEE 93(5):861–875CrossRef
Aragonés-Beltrán P, Chaparro-González F, Pastor-Ferrando JP, Rodríguez-Pozo F (2010) An ANP-based approach for the selection of photovoltaic solar power plant investment projects. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 14(1):249–264CrossRef
Aragonés-Beltrán P, Chaparro-González F, Pastor-Ferrando JP, Pla-Rubio A (2014) An AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process)/ANP (Analytic Network Process)-based multi-criteria decision approach for the selection of solar-thermal power plant investment projects. Energy 66:222–238CrossRef
Bhattacharya A, Kojima S (2012) Power sector investment risk and renewable energy: a Japanese case study using portfolio risk optimization method. Energy Policy 40:69–80CrossRef
Biener C, Eling M, Wirfs JH (2015) Insurability of cyber risk: an empirical analysis. Geneva Pap Risk Insur Issues Pract 40(1):131–158CrossRef
Burt G, Wright G, Bradfield R, Cairns G, van der Heijden K (2006) The role of scenario planning in exploring the environment in view of the limitations of PEST and its derivatives. Int Stud Manag Org 36(3):50–76
Chang SE, McDaniels TL, Mikawoz J, Peterson K (2007) Infrastructure failure interdependencies in extreme events: power outage consequences in the 1998 Ice Storm. Nat Hazards 41(2):337–358CrossRef
Chapman RJ (2001) The controlling influences on effective risk identification and assessment for construction design management. Int J Proj Manag 19(3):147–160CrossRef
Colli A, Vetere Arellano AL, Kirchsteiger C, Ale BJM (2009) Risk characterisation indicators for risk comparison in the energy sector. Saf Sci 47(1):59–77CrossRef
Dai Y, Chen G, Dong Z, Xue Y, Hill DJ, Zhao Y (2014) An improved framework for power grid vulnerability analysis considering critical system features. Physica A 395:405–415CrossRef
Doukas H, Flamos A, Psarras J (2011) Risks on the security of oil and gas supply. Energy Sources Part B 6(4):418–422CrossRef
Francés GE, Marín-Quemada JM, González ESM (2013) RES and risk: renewable energy’s contribution to energy security. A portfolio-based approach. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 26:549–559CrossRef
Gassner M (2009) PESTEL – Strategie zur Beherrschung externer Risiken?. In: Becker L (ed) Digitale Fachbibliothek Management und Führungspraxis. Symposion Publishing, Düsseldorf, pp 117–124
Gross R, Blyth W, Heptonstall P (2010) Risks, revenues and investment in electricity generation: why policy needs to look beyond costs. Energy Econ 32(4):796–804CrossRef
Gupta E (2008) Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries. Energy Policy 36(3):1195–1211CrossRef
Hao J, Kang E, Jackson D, Sun J (2014) Adaptive defending strategy for smart grid attacks. Proceedings of the 2nd Workshop on Smart Energy Grid Security. SEGS 2014, Scottsdale, pp 23–30
Jin X, Zhang Z, Shi X, Ju W (2014) A review on wind power industry and corresponding insurance market in China: Current status and challenges. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 38:1069–1082CrossRef
Johansson B (2013a) A broadened typology on energy and security. Energy 53:199–205CrossRef
Johansson B (2013b) Security aspects of future renewable energy systems – A short overview. Energy 61:598–605CrossRef
Johnson G, Whittington R, Scholes K, Angwin D, Regnér P (2013) Exploring strategy: text & cases, 10th edn. Pearson Education, London
Kjølle GH, Utne IB, Gjerde O (2012) Risk analysis of critical infrastructures emphasizing electricity supply and interdependencies. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 105:80–89CrossRef
Kosub T (2015) Components and challenges of integrated cyber risk management. Z Versicherungswiss 104(5):615–634CrossRef
Kröger W (2006) Critical infrastructures at risk: securing electric power supply. Int J Crit Infrastruct 2(2–3):273–293CrossRef
Kröger W (2008) Critical infrastructures at risk: a need for a new conceptual approach and extended analytical tools. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 93(12):1781–1787CrossRef
Liu L, Ye J, Zhao Y, Zhao E (2015) The plight of the biomass power generation industry in China – a supply chain risk perspective. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 49:680–692CrossRef
Liu X, Ye M, Pu B, Tang Z (2012) Risk management for jatropha curcas based biodiesel industry of Panzhihua Prefecture in Southwest China. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 16(3):1721–1734CrossRef
Liu X, Ren K, Yuan Y, Li Z, Wang Q (2013) Optimal budget deployment strategy against power grid interdiction. Proc IEEE Infocom 2013:1160–1168
Lomitschka M (2009) Integriertes Risiko-/Chancenmanagement als instrument der Unternehmenssteuerung. In: Hilz-Ward RM, Everling O (eds) Risk Performance Management: Chancen für ein besseres Rating. Gabler, Wiesbaden, pp 277–291CrossRef
Lomitschka M, Schulten R (2009) Aufbau des Risikomanagementsystems der MVV Energie AG. In: Scholz F, Schuler A, Schwintowski H‑P (eds) Risikomanagement der Öffentlichen Hand. Physica, Heidelberg, pp 289–305CrossRef
Lukasik SJ (2003) Vulnerabilities and failures of complex systems. Int J Eng Educ 19(1):206–212
Madlener R, Siegers L, Bendig S (2009) Risikomanagement und -controlling bei Offshore-Windenergieanlagen. Z Energiewirtsch 33(2):135–146CrossRef
Meyer MA, Booker JM (1991) Eliciting and analyzing expert judgment: a practical guide. Academic Press, LondonMATH
Montes GM, Martín EP (2007) Profitability of wind energy: short-term risk factors and possible improvements. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 11(9):2191–2200CrossRef
Nikolić DM, Jednak S, Benković S, Poznanić V (2011) Project finance risk evaluation of the electric power industry of Serbia. Energy Policy 39(10):6168–6177CrossRef
Perry JH, Hayes RW (1985) Risk and its management in construction projects. Proc Inst Civ Eng Part I 78(1):499–521
Sachs T, Dalla Rosa A, Tiong RLK (2008) Case study on quantifying the impact of political risks on demand and pricing in a power project. J Struct Financ 14(2):77–84CrossRef
Tah JHM, Carr V (2001) Knowledge-based approach to construction project risk management. J Comput Civil Eng 15(3):170–177CrossRefMATH
Tah JHM, Thorpe A, McCaffer R (1993) Contractor project risks contingency allocation using linguistic approximation. Comput Sys Eng 4(2–3):281–293CrossRef
Toft P, Duero A, Bieliauskas A (2010) Terrorist targeting and energy security. Energy Policy 38(8):4411–4421CrossRef
Torbaghan ME, Burrow MPN, Hunt DVL (2015) Risk assessment for a UK pan-European supergrid. Int J Energy Res 39(11):1564–1578CrossRef
Veloza OP, Santamaria F (2016) Analysis of major blackouts from 2003 to 2015: classification of incidents and review of main causes. Electr J 29(7):42–49CrossRef
van der Vleuten E, Lagendijk V (2010) Transnational infrastructure vulnerability: the historical shaping of the 2006 European “Blackout”. Energy Policy 38(4):2042–2052CrossRef
Weisser H (2007) The security of gas supply – a critical issue for Europe? Energy Policy 35(1):1–5CrossRef
Young D, Lopez Jr. J, Rice M, Ramsey B, McTasney R (2016) A framework for incorporating insurance in critical infrastructure cyber risk strategies. Int J Crit Infrastruct Prot 14:43–57CrossRef
Metadata
Title
Risks of the German Power Supply System
Difference between Risk Assessments from the Insurance Industry and Energy Technicians
Authors
Dirk Wrede
Tim Linderkamp
Miguel Rodriguez Gonzalez
Publication date
16-12-2016
Publisher
Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden
Published in
Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft / Issue 2/2017
Print ISSN: 0343-5377
Electronic ISSN: 1866-2765
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12398-016-0191-6

Other articles of this Issue 2/2017

Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft 2/2017 Go to the issue

OriginalPaper

Green Project Bonds als finanzielle Alternative für Energieunternehmen

OriginalPaper

Germany’s Energy Supply

OriginalPaper

Operating a Swing Option on Today’s Gas Markets – How Least Squares Monte Carlo Works and Why it is Beneficial

OriginalPaper

State of the German Short-Term Power Market

Veranstaltungskalender

Veranstaltungskalender