Scenarios and Price of the Transition to Low-Carbon Energy in Russia

For half a century now, the concept of decarbonization has dominated the global political and economic agenda, and Russia, despite the incompleteness of its scientific justification and the obvious threats to the development of the country’s economy and energy, has recently joined it. A basic (extrapolation of the most optimistic of the latest approved by the government) scenario for the development of the country’s economy until 2050 is presented, and it is transformed into a scenario of accelerated energy decarbonization (intensive). For these scenarios, forecasts have been developed for the consumption of the main types of fuel and electricity, and the required volumes of production of all types of primary energy have been optimized, taking into account the transformation of world energy markets. The rates and volumes of phasing out oil and especially coal production, the role of gas in the transition to low-carbon energy, the achievable volumes and the structure of noncarbon energy production are shown. Calculations of the required volumes of investments in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) and the contribution of the value added of its industries to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) showed that, in the intensive scenario, the fuel and energy complex loses its leading role in the Russian economy from the 2030s. Dominance in it in terms of contribution to the economy is moving from the oil and gas complex to the power industry, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be reduced to carbon neutrality by the mid-2050s (while maintaining the existing absorptive capacity of forests). The decarbonization of the energy sector will slow (relative to the baseline case) the growth of the Russian economy for 3 years in 2030–2050, and its cost to complete the energy transition will be even higher. The demolition of the geopolitical situation that occurred after the completion of the study and the preparation of the article will seriously change the scenarios for the development of the Russian economy and energy and, possibly, even the accepted paradigm of climate warming. But the methodology outlined here for the study and assessment of the degree of influence of the main factors of low-carbon policy on the energy and economy of the country will remain.