Skip to main content
Top
Published in: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 4/2017

05-12-2015 | Original Article

Simulating climate change impacts and potential adaptations on rice yields in the Sichuan Basin, China

Authors: Che-Chen Xu, Wen-Xiang Wu, Quan-Sheng Ge, Yang Zhou, Yu-Mei Lin, Ya-Mei Li

Published in: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change | Issue 4/2017

Login to get access

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Rice (Oryza) is a staple food in China, and rice yield is inherently sensitive to climate change. It is of great regional and global importance to understand how and to what degree climate change will impact rice yields and to determine the adaptation options effectiveness for mitigating possible adverse impacts or for taking advantage of beneficial changes. The objectives of this study are to assess the climate change impact, the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect, and the adaptation strategy effectiveness on rice yields during future periods (2011–2099) under the newly released Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario in the Sichuan Basin, one of the most important rice production areas of China. For this purpose, the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-Rice model was applied to conduct simulation, based on high-quality meteorological, soil and agricultural experimental data. The modeling results indicated a continuing rice reduction in the future periods. Compared to that without incorporating of increased CO2 concentration, a CO2 fertilization effect could mitigate but still not totally offset the negative climate change impacts on rice yields. Three adaptive measures, including advancing planting dates, switching to current high temperature tolerant varieties, and breeding new varieties, could effectively offset the negative climate change impacts with various degrees. Our results will not only contribute to inform regional future agricultural adaptation decisions in the Sichuan Basin but also gain insight into the mechanism of regional rice yield response to global climate change and the effectiveness of widely practiced global thereby assisting with appropriate adaptive strategies.
Appendix
Available only for authorised users
Literature
go back to reference Armstrong R A, Hilton A C (2010) Stepwise multiple regression. In: Armstrong R A, Hilton A C (eds) Statistical Analysis in Microbiology: Statnotes, 1st edn. Hoboken, NJ Armstrong R A, Hilton A C (2010) Stepwise multiple regression. In: Armstrong R A, Hilton A C (eds) Statistical Analysis in Microbiology: Statnotes, 1st edn. Hoboken, NJ
go back to reference Asseng S (2013) Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nat Clim Chang 3:827–832CrossRef Asseng S (2013) Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nat Clim Chang 3:827–832CrossRef
go back to reference Babel MS, Agarwal A, Swain DK et al (2011) Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand. Clim Res 46:137–146CrossRef Babel MS, Agarwal A, Swain DK et al (2011) Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand. Clim Res 46:137–146CrossRef
go back to reference Bakker MM, Govers G, Ewert F et al (2005) Variability in regional wheat yields as a function of climate, soil and economic variables: assessing the risk of confounding. Agric Ecosyst Environ 110:195–209CrossRef Bakker MM, Govers G, Ewert F et al (2005) Variability in regional wheat yields as a function of climate, soil and economic variables: assessing the risk of confounding. Agric Ecosyst Environ 110:195–209CrossRef
go back to reference Bazzaz FA, Garbutt K, Reekie EG et al (1989) Using growth analysis to interpret competition between a C3 and a C4 annual under ambient and elevated CO2. Oecologia 79:223–235CrossRef Bazzaz FA, Garbutt K, Reekie EG et al (1989) Using growth analysis to interpret competition between a C3 and a C4 annual under ambient and elevated CO2. Oecologia 79:223–235CrossRef
go back to reference Bocchiola D (2015) Impact of potential climate change on crop yield and water footprint of rice in the Po valley of Italy. Agric Syst 139:223–237CrossRef Bocchiola D (2015) Impact of potential climate change on crop yield and water footprint of rice in the Po valley of Italy. Agric Syst 139:223–237CrossRef
go back to reference Buan RD, Maglinao AR, Evangelista PP et al (1996) Vulnerability of rice and corn to climate change in the Philippines. Water Air Soil Pollut 92:41–51 Buan RD, Maglinao AR, Evangelista PP et al (1996) Vulnerability of rice and corn to climate change in the Philippines. Water Air Soil Pollut 92:41–51
go back to reference Byjesh K, Kumar SN, Aggarwal PK (2010) Simulating impacts, potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 15:413–431CrossRef Byjesh K, Kumar SN, Aggarwal PK (2010) Simulating impacts, potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 15:413–431CrossRef
go back to reference Challinor AJ, Ewert F, Arnold S et al (2009) Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. J Exp Bot 60:2775–2789CrossRef Challinor AJ, Ewert F, Arnold S et al (2009) Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. J Exp Bot 60:2775–2789CrossRef
go back to reference Challinor AJ, Watson J, Lobell DB et al (2014) A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. Nat Clim Chang 4:287–291CrossRef Challinor AJ, Watson J, Lobell DB et al (2014) A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. Nat Clim Chang 4:287–291CrossRef
go back to reference Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR (2008) Use of a crop model ensemble to quantify CO2 stimulation of water-stressed and well-watered crops. Agric For Meteorol 148:1062–1077CrossRef Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR (2008) Use of a crop model ensemble to quantify CO2 stimulation of water-stressed and well-watered crops. Agric For Meteorol 148:1062–1077CrossRef
go back to reference Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR, Craufurd PQ et al (2007) Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures. Agric Ecosyst Environ 119:190–204CrossRef Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR, Craufurd PQ et al (2007) Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures. Agric Ecosyst Environ 119:190–204CrossRef
go back to reference Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR, Craufurd PQ et al (2004) Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops. Agric For Meteorol 124:99–120CrossRef Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR, Craufurd PQ et al (2004) Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops. Agric For Meteorol 124:99–120CrossRef
go back to reference Chartzoulakis K, Psarras G (2005) Global change effects on crop photosynthesis and production in Mediterranean: the case of Crete, Greece. Agric Ecosyst Environ 106:147–157CrossRef Chartzoulakis K, Psarras G (2005) Global change effects on crop photosynthesis and production in Mediterranean: the case of Crete, Greece. Agric Ecosyst Environ 106:147–157CrossRef
go back to reference Cheng S, Li J (2007) Contemperary rice in China. Beijing, China Cheng S, Li J (2007) Contemperary rice in China. Beijing, China
go back to reference China Meteorological Administration (1993) Agro-meteorological observation standard. Beijing, China China Meteorological Administration (1993) Agro-meteorological observation standard. Beijing, China
go back to reference Collins M (2007) Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change. Phil Trans R Soc A 365:1957–1970CrossRef Collins M (2007) Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change. Phil Trans R Soc A 365:1957–1970CrossRef
go back to reference Deryng D, Sacks WJ, Barford CC et al (2011) Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 25:1–18CrossRef Deryng D, Sacks WJ, Barford CC et al (2011) Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 25:1–18CrossRef
go back to reference Easterling WE, Aggarwal PK, Batima P et al (2007) Food, fibre and forest products coordinating. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, 1st edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Easterling WE, Aggarwal PK, Batima P et al (2007) Food, fibre and forest products coordinating. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, 1st edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
go back to reference Ewert F (2004) Modelling plant responses to elevated CO2: how important is leaf area index? Ann Bot 93:619–627CrossRef Ewert F (2004) Modelling plant responses to elevated CO2: how important is leaf area index? Ann Bot 93:619–627CrossRef
go back to reference Ewert F, Rounsevell MDA, Reginster I et al (2005) Future scenarios of European agricultural land use I. Estimating changes in crop productivity. Agric Ecosyst Environ 107:101–116CrossRef Ewert F, Rounsevell MDA, Reginster I et al (2005) Future scenarios of European agricultural land use I. Estimating changes in crop productivity. Agric Ecosyst Environ 107:101–116CrossRef
go back to reference Fang X, Zhang W, Zhang L (1998) The land use arrangement of China in the Holocene megathermal period and its significance. J Nat Resour 13:16–22 Fang X, Zhang W, Zhang L (1998) The land use arrangement of China in the Holocene megathermal period and its significance. J Nat Resour 13:16–22
go back to reference Fredeen AL, Sage RF (1999) Temperature and humidity effects on branchlet gas-exchange in white spruce: an explanation for the increase in transpiration with branchlet temperature. Trees 14:161–168CrossRef Fredeen AL, Sage RF (1999) Temperature and humidity effects on branchlet gas-exchange in white spruce: an explanation for the increase in transpiration with branchlet temperature. Trees 14:161–168CrossRef
go back to reference Gitay H, Brown S, Easterling W et al (2001) Ecosystems and their goods and services. In: Fischlin Diaz S (ed) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, 1st edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Gitay H, Brown S, Easterling W et al (2001) Ecosystems and their goods and services. In: Fischlin Diaz S (ed) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, 1st edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
go back to reference Hansen JW, Jones JW (2000) Scaling-up crop models for climate variability application. Agric Syst 65:43–72CrossRef Hansen JW, Jones JW (2000) Scaling-up crop models for climate variability application. Agric Syst 65:43–72CrossRef
go back to reference Hatfield JL, Boote KJ, Kimball BA et al (2011) Climate impacts on agriculture implications for crop production. Agron J 103:351–370CrossRef Hatfield JL, Boote KJ, Kimball BA et al (2011) Climate impacts on agriculture implications for crop production. Agron J 103:351–370CrossRef
go back to reference He J, Jones JW, Graham WD et al (2010) Influence of likelihood function choice for estimating crop model parameters using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method. Agric Syst 103:256–264CrossRef He J, Jones JW, Graham WD et al (2010) Influence of likelihood function choice for estimating crop model parameters using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method. Agric Syst 103:256–264CrossRef
go back to reference Hempel S, Frieler K, Warszawski L et al (2013) A trend-preserving bias correction-the ISI-MIP approach. Earth Syst Dyn 4:219–236CrossRef Hempel S, Frieler K, Warszawski L et al (2013) A trend-preserving bias correction-the ISI-MIP approach. Earth Syst Dyn 4:219–236CrossRef
go back to reference Hoogenboom G, Jones J W, Porter C et al (eds) (2010) Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Version 4.5. Volume 1: Overview. Honolulu, HI Hoogenboom G, Jones J W, Porter C et al (eds) (2010) Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Version 4.5. Volume 1: Overview. Honolulu, HI
go back to reference Hoogenboom G, Jones JW, Traore PCS et al (2012) Experiments and data for model evaluation and application. In: Kihara J, Fatondji D, Hoogenboom G et al (eds) Improving soil fertility recommendations in Africa using the decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT), 1st edn. Springer Science, Business Media, Dordrecht Hoogenboom G, Jones JW, Traore PCS et al (2012) Experiments and data for model evaluation and application. In: Kihara J, Fatondji D, Hoogenboom G et al (eds) Improving soil fertility recommendations in Africa using the decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT), 1st edn. Springer Science, Business Media, Dordrecht
go back to reference Houghton J T, Ding Y, Griggs D J et al (2001) The scientific basis: contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Climate Change 525-582 Houghton J T, Ding Y, Griggs D J et al (2001) The scientific basis: contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Climate Change 525-582
go back to reference Hunt LA, Boote KJ (1998) Data for model operation, calibration, and evaluation. In: Tsuji GY, Hoogenboom G, Thornton PK (eds) Understanding options for agricultural production, 1st edn. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Kluwer Hunt LA, Boote KJ (1998) Data for model operation, calibration, and evaluation. In: Tsuji GY, Hoogenboom G, Thornton PK (eds) Understanding options for agricultural production, 1st edn. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Kluwer
go back to reference Hunt LA, White JW, Hoogenboom G (2001) Agronomic data: advances in documentation and protocols for exchange and use. Agric Syst 7:477–492CrossRef Hunt LA, White JW, Hoogenboom G (2001) Agronomic data: advances in documentation and protocols for exchange and use. Agric Syst 7:477–492CrossRef
go back to reference IPCC (2000) Emissions scenarios: a special report working group III of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. England, Cambridge IPCC (2000) Emissions scenarios: a special report working group III of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. England, Cambridge
go back to reference IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. England, Cambridge IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. England, Cambridge
go back to reference IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. England, Cambridge IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. England, Cambridge
go back to reference IPCC, Stocker T, Dahe Q et al (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Cambridge, England IPCC, Stocker T, Dahe Q et al (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Cambridge, England
go back to reference Jagadish SVK, Murty MVR, Quick WP (2014) Rice responses to rising temperatures: challenges, perspectives and future directions. Plant Cell Environ 38:1686–1698CrossRef Jagadish SVK, Murty MVR, Quick WP (2014) Rice responses to rising temperatures: challenges, perspectives and future directions. Plant Cell Environ 38:1686–1698CrossRef
go back to reference Jiang M, Jin Z, Shi C et al (2013) Response of rice production based on self-adaption to climate change in Fujian province. Acta Agron Sin 38:2246–2257CrossRef Jiang M, Jin Z, Shi C et al (2013) Response of rice production based on self-adaption to climate change in Fujian province. Acta Agron Sin 38:2246–2257CrossRef
go back to reference Jin Z, Ge D, Chen H et al (1995) Effects of climate change on rice production and strategies for adaptation in Southern China. In: Rosenzweig C, Allen LH, Harper LA (eds) Climate change and agriculture: analysis of potential international impacts, 1st edn. American Society of Agronomy, Madison Jin Z, Ge D, Chen H et al (1995) Effects of climate change on rice production and strategies for adaptation in Southern China. In: Rosenzweig C, Allen LH, Harper LA (eds) Climate change and agriculture: analysis of potential international impacts, 1st edn. American Society of Agronomy, Madison
go back to reference Jones CD, Hughes JK, Bellouin N et al (2011) The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations. Geosci Model Dev 4:543–570CrossRef Jones CD, Hughes JK, Bellouin N et al (2011) The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations. Geosci Model Dev 4:543–570CrossRef
go back to reference Jones JW, Hoogenboom G, Porter H et al (2003) The DSSAT cropping system model. Eur J Agron 18:235–265CrossRef Jones JW, Hoogenboom G, Porter H et al (2003) The DSSAT cropping system model. Eur J Agron 18:235–265CrossRef
go back to reference Kapetanaki G, Rosenzweig C (1997) Impact of climate change on maize yield in central and northern Greece: a simulation study with ceres-maize. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 1:251–271CrossRef Kapetanaki G, Rosenzweig C (1997) Impact of climate change on maize yield in central and northern Greece: a simulation study with ceres-maize. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 1:251–271CrossRef
go back to reference Kim H-Y, Ko J, Kang S et al (2013) Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate. Glob Chang Biol 19:548–562CrossRef Kim H-Y, Ko J, Kang S et al (2013) Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate. Glob Chang Biol 19:548–562CrossRef
go back to reference Krishnan P, Swain DK, Bhaskar BC et al (2007) Impact of elevated CO2 and temperature on rice yield and methods of adaptation as evaluated by crop simulation studies. Agric Ecosyst Environ 122:233–242CrossRef Krishnan P, Swain DK, Bhaskar BC et al (2007) Impact of elevated CO2 and temperature on rice yield and methods of adaptation as evaluated by crop simulation studies. Agric Ecosyst Environ 122:233–242CrossRef
go back to reference Lansigan FP, Santos WLdl, Coladilla JO (2000) Agronomic impacts of climate variability on rice production in the Philippines. Agric Ecosyst Environ 82:129–137CrossRef Lansigan FP, Santos WLdl, Coladilla JO (2000) Agronomic impacts of climate variability on rice production in the Philippines. Agric Ecosyst Environ 82:129–137CrossRef
go back to reference Lashkari A, Alizadeh A, Rezaei EE et al (2011) Mitigation of climate change impacts on maize productivity in northeast of Iran: a simulation study. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 17:1–16CrossRef Lashkari A, Alizadeh A, Rezaei EE et al (2011) Mitigation of climate change impacts on maize productivity in northeast of Iran: a simulation study. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 17:1–16CrossRef
go back to reference Leakey ADB, Ainsworth EA, Bernacchi CJ et al (2009) Elevated CO2 effects on plant carbon, nitrogen, and water relations: six important lessons from FACE. J Exp Bot 60:2859–2876CrossRef Leakey ADB, Ainsworth EA, Bernacchi CJ et al (2009) Elevated CO2 effects on plant carbon, nitrogen, and water relations: six important lessons from FACE. J Exp Bot 60:2859–2876CrossRef
go back to reference Lin E, Xiong W, Ju H et al (2005) Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2 fertilization in China. Philos Trans R Soc B 360:2149–2154CrossRef Lin E, Xiong W, Ju H et al (2005) Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2 fertilization in China. Philos Trans R Soc B 360:2149–2154CrossRef
go back to reference Liu G, Xie Y, Gao X et al (2008) Sensitivity analysis on parameters of ALMANAC crop model. Chin J Agrometeorol 29:259–263 Liu G, Xie Y, Gao X et al (2008) Sensitivity analysis on parameters of ALMANAC crop model. Chin J Agrometeorol 29:259–263
go back to reference Liu S, Wang Y, Miao Q et al (2010) Variation characteristics of thermal resources in northeast China in recent 50 years. J Appl Meteorol Sci 21:267–278 Liu S, Wang Y, Miao Q et al (2010) Variation characteristics of thermal resources in northeast China in recent 50 years. J Appl Meteorol Sci 21:267–278
go back to reference Lobell DB, Field CB, Cahill KN et al (2006) Impacts of future climate change on California perennial crop yields: model projections with climate and crop uncertainties. Agric For Meteorol 141:208–218CrossRef Lobell DB, Field CB, Cahill KN et al (2006) Impacts of future climate change on California perennial crop yields: model projections with climate and crop uncertainties. Agric For Meteorol 141:208–218CrossRef
go back to reference Lobell DB, Gourdji SM (2012) The influence of climate change on global crop productivity. Plant Physiol 160:1686–1697CrossRef Lobell DB, Gourdji SM (2012) The influence of climate change on global crop productivity. Plant Physiol 160:1686–1697CrossRef
go back to reference Mahmood R, Legates DR, Meo M (2004) The role of soil water availability in potential rainfed rice productivity in Bangladesh: applications of the CERES-Rice model. Appl Geogr 24:139–159CrossRef Mahmood R, Legates DR, Meo M (2004) The role of soil water availability in potential rainfed rice productivity in Bangladesh: applications of the CERES-Rice model. Appl Geogr 24:139–159CrossRef
go back to reference Masui T, Matsumoto K, Hijioka Y et al (2011) An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm−2 radiative forcing. Clim Chang 109:59–76CrossRef Masui T, Matsumoto K, Hijioka Y et al (2011) An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm−2 radiative forcing. Clim Chang 109:59–76CrossRef
go back to reference Masutomi Y, Takahashi K, Harasawa H et al (2009) Impact assessment of climate change on rice production in Asia in comprehensive consideration of process/parameter uncertainty in general circulation models. Agric Ecosyst Environ 131:281–291CrossRef Masutomi Y, Takahashi K, Harasawa H et al (2009) Impact assessment of climate change on rice production in Asia in comprehensive consideration of process/parameter uncertainty in general circulation models. Agric Ecosyst Environ 131:281–291CrossRef
go back to reference Mati BM (2000) The influence of climate change on maize production in the semi-humid–semi-arid areas of Kenya. J Arid Environ 46:333–344CrossRef Mati BM (2000) The influence of climate change on maize production in the semi-humid–semi-arid areas of Kenya. J Arid Environ 46:333–344CrossRef
go back to reference Matthews R, Wassmann R (2003) Modelling the impacts of climate change and methane emission reductions on rice production: a review. Eur J Agron 19:573–598CrossRef Matthews R, Wassmann R (2003) Modelling the impacts of climate change and methane emission reductions on rice production: a review. Eur J Agron 19:573–598CrossRef
go back to reference Meng N, Sichuan Provincial Agriculture Department, Sichuan Provincial Soil Survey Office (1994) Sichuan soil genus records. Chengdu, China Meng N, Sichuan Provincial Agriculture Department, Sichuan Provincial Soil Survey Office (1994) Sichuan soil genus records. Chengdu, China
go back to reference Moore FC, Lobell DB (2014) Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change. Nat Clim Chang 4:610–614CrossRef Moore FC, Lobell DB (2014) Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change. Nat Clim Chang 4:610–614CrossRef
go back to reference Moradi R, Koocheki A, Mahallati MN (2013) Adaptation of maize to climate change impacts in Iran. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 19:1223–1238CrossRef Moradi R, Koocheki A, Mahallati MN (2013) Adaptation of maize to climate change impacts in Iran. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 19:1223–1238CrossRef
go back to reference Moriondo M, Bindi M, Kundzewicz ZW et al (2010) Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climatic change and variability. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 15:657–679CrossRef Moriondo M, Bindi M, Kundzewicz ZW et al (2010) Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climatic change and variability. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 15:657–679CrossRef
go back to reference Morris MD (1991) Factorial sampling plans for preliminary computational. Technometrics 33:161–174CrossRef Morris MD (1991) Factorial sampling plans for preliminary computational. Technometrics 33:161–174CrossRef
go back to reference Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA et al (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756CrossRef Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA et al (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756CrossRef
go back to reference Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y et al (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467:43–51CrossRef Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y et al (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467:43–51CrossRef
go back to reference Porter JR, Xie L, Challinor AJ et al (2014) Food security and food production systems. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, 1st edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, and New York Porter JR, Xie L, Challinor AJ et al (2014) Food security and food production systems. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, 1st edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, and New York
go back to reference Raj RB, Cassandra S, Walter LF (2014) Effectiveness of the local adaptation plan of action to support climate change adaptation in Nepal. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang. doi:10.1007/s11027-014-9610-3 Raj RB, Cassandra S, Walter LF (2014) Effectiveness of the local adaptation plan of action to support climate change adaptation in Nepal. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang. doi:10.​1007/​s11027-014-9610-3
go back to reference Rani BA, Maragatham N (2013) Effect of elevated temperature on rice phenology and yield. Indian J Sci Technol 6:5095–5097 Rani BA, Maragatham N (2013) Effect of elevated temperature on rice phenology and yield. Indian J Sci Technol 6:5095–5097
go back to reference Reilly J, Baethgen W, Chege FE et al (1996) Agriculture in a changing climate: impacts and adaptation. In: Watson RT, Zinyowera MC, Moss RH (eds) Climate change 1995: impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: scientific-technical analyses, 1st edn. Cambridge university press, Cambridge Reilly J, Baethgen W, Chege FE et al (1996) Agriculture in a changing climate: impacts and adaptation. In: Watson RT, Zinyowera MC, Moss RH (eds) Climate change 1995: impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: scientific-technical analyses, 1st edn. Cambridge university press, Cambridge
go back to reference Riahi K, Rao S, Krey V et al (2011) RCP8.5: a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Clim Chang 109:33–57CrossRef Riahi K, Rao S, Krey V et al (2011) RCP8.5: a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Clim Chang 109:33–57CrossRef
go back to reference Rinaldia M, Losavioa N, Flagellab Z (2003) Evaluation and application of the OILCROP-SUN model for sunflower in southern Italy. Agric Syst 78:17–30CrossRef Rinaldia M, Losavioa N, Flagellab Z (2003) Evaluation and application of the OILCROP-SUN model for sunflower in southern Italy. Agric Syst 78:17–30CrossRef
go back to reference Ritchie JT, Singh U, Godwin DC et al (1998) Cereal growth, development and yield. In: Tsuji GY, Hoogenboom G, Thornto PK (eds) Understanding options for agricultural production, 1st edn. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht Ritchie JT, Singh U, Godwin DC et al (1998) Cereal growth, development and yield. In: Tsuji GY, Hoogenboom G, Thornto PK (eds) Understanding options for agricultural production, 1st edn. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht
go back to reference Román-Paoli E, Welch SM, Vanderlip RL (2000) Comparing genetic coefficient estimation methods using the CERES-Maize model. Agric Syst 65:29–41CrossRef Román-Paoli E, Welch SM, Vanderlip RL (2000) Comparing genetic coefficient estimation methods using the CERES-Maize model. Agric Syst 65:29–41CrossRef
go back to reference Rosenzweig C, Elliott J, Deryng D et al (2014) Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. PNAS 111:3268–3273CrossRef Rosenzweig C, Elliott J, Deryng D et al (2014) Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. PNAS 111:3268–3273CrossRef
go back to reference Rosenzweig C, Hillel D (1998) Climate change and the global harvest. New York, America Rosenzweig C, Hillel D (1998) Climate change and the global harvest. New York, America
go back to reference Rosenzweig C, Jones JW, Hatfield JL et al (2013) The agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP): protocols and pilot studies. Agric For Meteorol 170:166–182CrossRef Rosenzweig C, Jones JW, Hatfield JL et al (2013) The agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP): protocols and pilot studies. Agric For Meteorol 170:166–182CrossRef
go back to reference Saseendran SA, Singh KK, Rathore LS et al (2000) Effects of climate change on rice production in the tropical humid climate of Kerala, India. Clim Chang 44:495–514CrossRef Saseendran SA, Singh KK, Rathore LS et al (2000) Effects of climate change on rice production in the tropical humid climate of Kerala, India. Clim Chang 44:495–514CrossRef
go back to reference Shao J, Li Y, Ni J (2012) The characteristics of temperature variability with terrain, latitude and longitude in Sichuan-Chongqing region. J Geogr Sci 22:223–244CrossRef Shao J, Li Y, Ni J (2012) The characteristics of temperature variability with terrain, latitude and longitude in Sichuan-Chongqing region. J Geogr Sci 22:223–244CrossRef
go back to reference Shi P, Tang L, Lin C et al (2015) Modeling the effects of post-anthesis heat stress on rice phenology. Field Crop Res 177:26–36CrossRef Shi P, Tang L, Lin C et al (2015) Modeling the effects of post-anthesis heat stress on rice phenology. Field Crop Res 177:26–36CrossRef
go back to reference Singh P, Nedumaran S, Ntare BR et al (2013) Potential benefits of drought and heat tolerance in groundnut for adaptation to climate change in India and West Africa. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 19:509–529CrossRef Singh P, Nedumaran S, Ntare BR et al (2013) Potential benefits of drought and heat tolerance in groundnut for adaptation to climate change in India and West Africa. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 19:509–529CrossRef
go back to reference Srivastava AK, Gaiser T, Ewert F (2015) Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate climate scenarios for yam production in the sub-humid savannah zone of West Africa. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang. doi:10.1007/s11027-015-9639-y Srivastava AK, Gaiser T, Ewert F (2015) Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate climate scenarios for yam production in the sub-humid savannah zone of West Africa. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang. doi:10.​1007/​s11027-015-9639-y
go back to reference Sudharsan D, Adinarayana J, Reddy DR et al (2012) Evaluation of weather-based rice yield models in India. Int J Biometeorol 57:107–123CrossRef Sudharsan D, Adinarayana J, Reddy DR et al (2012) Evaluation of weather-based rice yield models in India. Int J Biometeorol 57:107–123CrossRef
go back to reference Tao F, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z et al (2008) Global warming, rice production, and water use in China: developing a probabilistic assessment. Agric For Meteorol 148:94–110CrossRef Tao F, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z et al (2008) Global warming, rice production, and water use in China: developing a probabilistic assessment. Agric For Meteorol 148:94–110CrossRef
go back to reference Tao F, Yokozawa M, Xu Y et al (2006) Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981–2000. Agric For Meteorol 138:82–92CrossRef Tao F, Yokozawa M, Xu Y et al (2006) Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981–2000. Agric For Meteorol 138:82–92CrossRef
go back to reference Tao F, Zhang S, Zhang Z et al (2014) Maize growing duration was prolonged across China in the past three decades under the combined effects of temperature, agronomic management, and cultivar shift. Glob Chang Biol 20:3686–3699CrossRef Tao F, Zhang S, Zhang Z et al (2014) Maize growing duration was prolonged across China in the past three decades under the combined effects of temperature, agronomic management, and cultivar shift. Glob Chang Biol 20:3686–3699CrossRef
go back to reference Tao F, Zhang Z (2010) Adaptation of maize production to climate change in North China Plain: quantify the relative contributions of adaptation options. Eur J Agron 33:103–116CrossRef Tao F, Zhang Z (2010) Adaptation of maize production to climate change in North China Plain: quantify the relative contributions of adaptation options. Eur J Agron 33:103–116CrossRef
go back to reference Tao F, Zhang Z, Shi W et al (2013) Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts, but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981-2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite. Glob Chang Biol 19:3200–3209CrossRef Tao F, Zhang Z, Shi W et al (2013) Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts, but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981-2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite. Glob Chang Biol 19:3200–3209CrossRef
go back to reference Thomson AM, Calvin KV, Smith SJ et al (2011) RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Clim Chang 109:77–94CrossRef Thomson AM, Calvin KV, Smith SJ et al (2011) RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Clim Chang 109:77–94CrossRef
go back to reference Timsina J, Humphreys E (2006) Applications of CERES-Rice and CERES-Wheat in research, policy and climate change studies in Asia: a review. Int J Agric Res 1:202–225CrossRef Timsina J, Humphreys E (2006) Applications of CERES-Rice and CERES-Wheat in research, policy and climate change studies in Asia: a review. Int J Agric Res 1:202–225CrossRef
go back to reference Tingem M, Rivington M (2008) Adaptation for crop agriculture to climate change in Cameroon: Turning on the heat. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 14:153–168CrossRef Tingem M, Rivington M (2008) Adaptation for crop agriculture to climate change in Cameroon: Turning on the heat. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 14:153–168CrossRef
go back to reference Travasso MI, Magrin GO, Rodriguez GR et al (2009) Climate change impacts on regional maize yields and possible adaptation measures in Argentina. Int J Global Warming 1:201–213CrossRef Travasso MI, Magrin GO, Rodriguez GR et al (2009) Climate change impacts on regional maize yields and possible adaptation measures in Argentina. Int J Global Warming 1:201–213CrossRef
go back to reference Tsuji G Y, Balas S (1993) The IBSNAT decade. Honolulu, America Tsuji G Y, Balas S (1993) The IBSNAT decade. Honolulu, America
go back to reference Tsuji G Y, Uehara G, Balas S (eds) (1994) Decision support system for Agrotechnology Transfer Version 3. Volumn 2. Honolulu, Hawaii Tsuji G Y, Uehara G, Balas S (eds) (1994) Decision support system for Agrotechnology Transfer Version 3. Volumn 2. Honolulu, Hawaii
go back to reference Tubiello FN, Amthorb JS, Boote KJ et al (2007) Crop response to elevated CO2 and world food supply. Eur J Agron 26:215–223CrossRef Tubiello FN, Amthorb JS, Boote KJ et al (2007) Crop response to elevated CO2 and world food supply. Eur J Agron 26:215–223CrossRef
go back to reference Tubiello FN, Ewert F (2002) Simulating the effects of elevated CO2 on crops: approaches and applications for climate change. Eur J Agron 18:57–74CrossRef Tubiello FN, Ewert F (2002) Simulating the effects of elevated CO2 on crops: approaches and applications for climate change. Eur J Agron 18:57–74CrossRef
go back to reference Vaghefi N, Shamsudin MN, Radam A et al (2013) Modelling the impact of climate change on rice production: an overview. J Appl Sci 13:5649–5660CrossRef Vaghefi N, Shamsudin MN, Radam A et al (2013) Modelling the impact of climate change on rice production: an overview. J Appl Sci 13:5649–5660CrossRef
go back to reference van Ittersum MK, Cassman KG, Grassini P et al (2013) Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance: a review. Field Crop Res 143:4–17CrossRef van Ittersum MK, Cassman KG, Grassini P et al (2013) Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance: a review. Field Crop Res 143:4–17CrossRef
go back to reference van Vuuren DP, Stehfest E, Elzen MGJd et al (2011) RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C. Clim Chang 109:95–116CrossRef van Vuuren DP, Stehfest E, Elzen MGJd et al (2011) RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C. Clim Chang 109:95–116CrossRef
go back to reference Wajid A, Rahman MHU, Ahmad A et al (2013) Simulating the interactive impact of nitrogen and promising cultivars on yield of lentil (lens culinaris) using CROPGRO-legume model. Int J Agric Biol 15:1331–1336 Wajid A, Rahman MHU, Ahmad A et al (2013) Simulating the interactive impact of nitrogen and promising cultivars on yield of lentil (lens culinaris) using CROPGRO-legume model. Int J Agric Biol 15:1331–1336
go back to reference Wang E, Yu Q, Wu D (2008) Climate, agricultural production and hydrological balance in the North China Plain. Int J Climatol 28:1959–1970CrossRef Wang E, Yu Q, Wu D (2008) Climate, agricultural production and hydrological balance in the North China Plain. Int J Climatol 28:1959–1970CrossRef
go back to reference Wassmann R, Jagadish SVK, Heuer S et al (2009) Climate change affecting rice production: the physiological and agronomic basis for possible adaptation stragies. Adv Agron 101:59–122CrossRef Wassmann R, Jagadish SVK, Heuer S et al (2009) Climate change affecting rice production: the physiological and agronomic basis for possible adaptation stragies. Adv Agron 101:59–122CrossRef
go back to reference Wheeler T, Braun J v (2013) Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 341:508–513CrossRef Wheeler T, Braun J v (2013) Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 341:508–513CrossRef
go back to reference White JW, Hoogenboom G,A, Kimball B et al (2011) Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production. Field Crop Res 124:357–368CrossRef White JW, Hoogenboom G,A, Kimball B et al (2011) Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production. Field Crop Res 124:357–368CrossRef
go back to reference Widodo W, Vu JCV, Boote KJ et al (2003) Elevated growth CO2 delays drought stress and accelerates recovery of rice leaf photosynthesis. Environ Exp Bot 49:259–272CrossRef Widodo W, Vu JCV, Boote KJ et al (2003) Elevated growth CO2 delays drought stress and accelerates recovery of rice leaf photosynthesis. Environ Exp Bot 49:259–272CrossRef
go back to reference Wilkens P W, Hoogenboom G, Porter C H et al (eds) (2004) Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Version 4.0. Volume 2: Data management and analysis tools. Honolulu, HI Wilkens P W, Hoogenboom G, Porter C H et al (eds) (2004) Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Version 4.0. Volume 2: Data management and analysis tools. Honolulu, HI
go back to reference Wu X, Dai J, Liao F et al (2013) Origin and source of CO2 in natural gas from the eastern Sichuan Basin. Sci China Earth Sci 56:1308–1317CrossRef Wu X, Dai J, Liao F et al (2013) Origin and source of CO2 in natural gas from the eastern Sichuan Basin. Sci China Earth Sci 56:1308–1317CrossRef
go back to reference Xie X, Li B, Li Y et al (2009) High temperature harm at flowering in Yangtze River Basin in recent 55 years. Jiangsu J Agric Sci 25:28–32 Xie X, Li B, Li Y et al (2009) High temperature harm at flowering in Yangtze River Basin in recent 55 years. Jiangsu J Agric Sci 25:28–32
go back to reference Xiong W, Conway D, Holman I et al (2008) Evaluation of CERES-Wheat simulation of wheat production in China. Agron J 100:1720CrossRef Xiong W, Conway D, Holman I et al (2008) Evaluation of CERES-Wheat simulation of wheat production in China. Agron J 100:1720CrossRef
go back to reference Xiong W, Conway D, Lin E et al (2009) Potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on China’s rice yield and production. Clim Res 40:23–35CrossRef Xiong W, Conway D, Lin E et al (2009) Potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on China’s rice yield and production. Clim Res 40:23–35CrossRef
go back to reference Xiong W, Tao F, Xu Y et al (2001) Simulation of rice yields under climate changes in future in China. Chin J Agrometeorol 22:1–5 Xiong W, Tao F, Xu Y et al (2001) Simulation of rice yields under climate changes in future in China. Chin J Agrometeorol 22:1–5
go back to reference Yao F, Xu Y, Lin E et al (2007) Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China. Clim Chang 80:395–409CrossRef Yao F, Xu Y, Lin E et al (2007) Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China. Clim Chang 80:395–409CrossRef
go back to reference Zhang S, Tao F (2013) Modeling the response of rice phenology to climate change and variability in different climatic zones: comparisons of five models. Eur J Agron 45:165–176CrossRef Zhang S, Tao F (2013) Modeling the response of rice phenology to climate change and variability in different climatic zones: comparisons of five models. Eur J Agron 45:165–176CrossRef
go back to reference Zhang T, Zhu J, Wassmann R (2010) Responses of rice yields to recent climate change in China: an empirical assessment based on long-term observations at different spatial scales (1981–2005). Agric For Meteorol 150:1128–1137CrossRef Zhang T, Zhu J, Wassmann R (2010) Responses of rice yields to recent climate change in China: an empirical assessment based on long-term observations at different spatial scales (1981–2005). Agric For Meteorol 150:1128–1137CrossRef
Metadata
Title
Simulating climate change impacts and potential adaptations on rice yields in the Sichuan Basin, China
Authors
Che-Chen Xu
Wen-Xiang Wu
Quan-Sheng Ge
Yang Zhou
Yu-Mei Lin
Ya-Mei Li
Publication date
05-12-2015
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Published in
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change / Issue 4/2017
Print ISSN: 1381-2386
Electronic ISSN: 1573-1596
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-015-9688-2

Other articles of this Issue 4/2017

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 4/2017 Go to the issue